Ukraine and Beyond: Shaping the Future of European Security

Key Chapter Title List

1. Phased Evolution of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict and the Current Battlefield Situation
2. Russia's Security Perception of the West and the Positioning of Its Strategic Objectives
3. Shifts in NATO and EU Positions Towards Russia and Internal Coordination Challenges
4. Potential Impact of the New U.S. Administration on the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
5. Diplomatic Mediation Pathways and Peace Agreement Framework for the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
6. Necessity and Implementation Path for European Autonomous Defense Capability Building
7. Regional Militarization Risk Management and Deterrence Balance Construction
8. Vision and Core Challenges for Building a New European Security System

Document Introduction

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 fundamentally altered the cornerstone of European security that had been in place for decades, leaving not only Ukraine's fate hanging in the balance but also casting uncertainty over Europe's future. This conflict has experienced fluctuations, and by early 2025, it presented a new dynamic: although Russia has paid a heavy price, it is making slow but steady progress in eastern Ukraine, while Ukraine faces the dilemma of troop shortages. The complexity of the situation is further exacerbated by the return of Donald Trump, who is skeptical of supporting Ukraine, to the U.S. presidency.

The impact of the conflict extends far beyond Ukraine's borders. Russia has long viewed the West, led by the United States, as a threat to its national security, attributing the 2014 Ukraine crisis and the 2022 full-scale invasion to Western attempts to weaken Russia, and sees this war as a crucial component of its long-term confrontation with the West. NATO and EU countries had differing positions towards Russia before 2022, but after the full-scale invasion, a broad consensus emerged that Russia constitutes a threat that must be contained, if not defeated. However, there is simultaneous concern that reduced U.S. support could severely hinder achieving this goal.

The inauguration of the new U.S. administration brings uncertainty but also creates potential opportunities to break the deadlock. The Trump team believes there is a six-month window (some views suggest one hundred days) to reach an agreement, a period during which diplomatic means could advance the situation. The United States holds unique advantages: Russia both desires an agreement with a global power and fears potential additional sanctions and other pressure tactics from the U.S., while the U.S. has the ability to secure support from European allies. The most stable conflict resolution should guarantee Ukraine's political independence and self-defense capability, while acknowledging the reality of Russia's current control over the occupied territories.

Regardless of how the situation in Ukraine develops subsequently, if European allies wish to effectively contain Russia, they must strengthen their armed forces and stabilize their defense industrial base. Although European nations consider their own security a core concern, the new U.S. administration is inclined to reduce its presence in Europe, shifting focus to counterbalancing China's influence in the Indo-Pacific region. The EU needs to accept this shift, preferably cooperating with the U.S. to facilitate the adjustment, and the U.S. should also recognize that strengthening EU and NATO armaments aligns with its own interests.

The core challenge facing regional security is that mutual distrust between Russia and the West, coupled with European nations' fear of Russian aggression, could drive countries to accelerate military expansion, leading to increased uncertainty and risk. While these risks cannot be entirely eliminated, they can be effectively managed through jointly established deterrence agreements and measures to control militarization escalation. Both Russia and the transatlantic nations face the high costs and uncertainty risks associated with an arms race.

Constructing a new European security system requires rational coordination between the U.S. and Europe to signal to Putin that a maximalist stance is counterproductive, while using economic and political pressure to bring Russia back to the negotiating table. If these elements fail to work in concert, the vision of peace in Ukraine and a secure, stable Europe will be difficult to achieve, and all parties may find themselves mired in prolonged warfare, rising costs, and heightened escalation risks. This report focuses on how to fully utilize currently available opportunities, providing analysis and reference for relevant decision-making based on geopolitical realities.