Russia, Ukraine, and the Future Application of Strategic Intelligence

Key Chapter Title List

1. Objectives and Utility
2. Intelligence Application in Policy and Diplomacy
3. Risks to Intelligence Sources and Methods
4. Open-Source Intelligence Verification
5. The Future Development of Intelligence as a Strategic Effect
6. The Political Dimension of Intelligence as a Strategic Effect
7. Intelligence Application in Information Warfare
8. Planning, Assessment, and Implementation in Information Warfare
9. Conclusion

Document Introduction

Prior to Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the United States and the United Kingdom initiated a large-scale public and private information campaign. Its core feature was the unprecedented disclosure of sensitive strategic intelligence, aimed at a dual objective: persuading allies to recognize the threat of a Russian offensive to mobilize subsequent support, while simultaneously attempting to deter Moscow's actions. This model of intelligence application broke with tradition in terms of the speed, frequency, and scope of disclosure, and was supported by third-party verification from the emerging open-source intelligence community, becoming a landmark practice in modern information warfare.

Centering on this core case, this report systematically explores the innovative application and potential dilemmas of strategic intelligence in modern conflicts. The report first identifies the three primary target audiences of the US-UK intelligence operation—domestic and allied policymakers, the adversary Russia, and the global international community—and provides an in-depth analysis of the differences in acceptance and reaction to intelligence information among these different audiences. By contrasting the lessons from the misuse of intelligence prior to the 2003 Iraq War, this study highlights the improvements and breakthroughs in intelligence application during the Russia-Ukraine conflict regarding avoiding the risk of politicization and maintaining professionalism.

The report's core chapters focus on four key issues: the tension created by intelligence disclosure on the protection of sources and methods, the value and limitations of open-source intelligence as an independent verification mechanism, the strategic significance of intelligence in reclaiming narrative dominance in information warfare, and the collaborative and balancing relationship between policymakers and intelligence agencies. Based on extensive open sources, officially disclosed documents, and analyses from the open-source intelligence community, the research verifies the partial effectiveness of the US-UK intelligence operation in undermining Russia's pretext for war and mobilizing allied response, while also pointing out its limited impact on the attitudes of Global South countries.

The core findings of this report reveal the evolution of the role of strategic intelligence: from a traditional policy support tool to a direct means of generating strategic effects. The report warns that while intelligence disclosure can achieve tactical objectives in specific crises, it may trigger long-term challenges such as excessive demand for intelligence products, risks of source exposure, and a resurgence of politicization tendencies. For professionals engaged in defense security, international relations, and intelligence studies, this report provides an authoritative analytical framework for understanding the logic, risk trade-offs, and practical boundaries of intelligence application in modern information warfare, offering critical reference for formulating intelligence strategies in future crises.