Russian Strategic Information Attack: Catastrophic Impact and Threat Analysis

Key Chapter Title List

1. Executive Summary
2. Core Findings
3. Theoretical Foundation
4. Russian Strategic Information Attack Framework
5. Information Attacks in Strategic Conflict
6. Russian Conflict Phases and Intensity Levels
7. Strategic Influence Operations – Psychological Attack
8. Strategic Cyber Attacks – Technical Attack
9. Key Targets Highlighted by Military Strategy
10. Expected Strategic Effects
11. Future Outlook
12. Appendix A: Hypothetical Russian Strategic Information Attack Scenarios

Document Introduction

Russia's Strategic Information Attack (SIA) is the Kremlin's core capability for conducting strategic strikes against an adversary nation's critical infrastructure (NCI) through non-kinetic means. According to official Russian military doctrine, this capability is highly likely to be used only in scenarios of "large-scale war," and its positioning is comparable to the use of strategic nuclear forces. As of the report's release, Russia has not yet launched a true strategic information attack against its adversaries. However, information attack practices targeting Western critical infrastructure over the past decade have clearly revealed the directionality of its potential targets.

This report clearly divides Russia's Strategic Information Attack into two core components: first, "Psychological Attack" (Strategic Influence Operations), and second, "Technical Attack" (Strategic Cyber Attacks). While their objectives differ, their effects overlap. As a key component of the Kremlin's "conflict escalation management" strategy, strategic information attacks provide Russia with a non-kinetic escalation tool, aiming to pressure the adversary back to the negotiating table and achieve the strategic intent of "promoting de-escalation through escalation." This shares common logic with the use of nuclear weapons in Russian military theory.

The report's analysis is strictly anchored in official Russian policies, strategic documents, and military doctrine. Simultaneously, it systematically traces the theoretical origins and practical pathways of Russian strategic information attacks by combining Soviet-era targeting frameworks with modern strategic conflict concepts. By analyzing the Soviet-era GRU's anthropomorphic target classification model and the Russian Ministry of Defense's "Strategic Operation for the Destruction of Critical Targets" (SODCIT) framework, it clarifies that critical infrastructure shared by public and private sectors—such as communications, energy, and finance—are the most likely targets.

In the dimension of psychological attack, the report focuses on analyzing how Russia utilizes emerging technologies like Malicious Use of Artificial Intelligence (MUAI), through means such as deepfakes, to undermine the target nation's "psychological security," exacerbate social division and political instability, and even pursue the strategic intent of "regime change." Regarding technical attacks, the focus is on Russia's disruptive actions against adversary information processing systems. The core objective is to cause long-term, widespread failure of critical infrastructure functions, rather than short-term disruption, thereby weakening the adversary's sustained combat and domestic governance capabilities.

The report emphasizes that leaders and defense analysts in Western public and private sectors must attach great importance to the dual threat of Russian strategic information attacks. While strengthening cybersecurity defenses to counter technical attacks, they must not overlook the potential destructive power of psychological attacks. Integrating tools like the Recorded Future Intelligence Cloud to identify Russian attack tactics, techniques, and indicators, and conducting targeted exercises and contingency planning, are key measures to mitigate risks.

The core value of this report lies in abandoning the one-sided perception of Russian actions as "simply aimed at causing catastrophic destruction." Instead, it interprets their strategic behavior within the framework of official Russian strategy and doctrine, providing a rigorous analytical framework and empirical support for accurately judging the Kremlin's strategic intentions and anticipating potential attack scenarios.