North Korea becomes an unexpected stopover for Russian air force en route to Ukraine.
An Empirical Analysis Based on Open Source Intelligence and Flight Tracking Data (Year) – Investigation of Route Anomalies and Strategic Implications in the Context of Russia-North Korea Military Cooperation
Detail
Published
23/12/2025
Key Chapter Title List
- Overview of the Flight Incident Related to Russia-North Korea Military Cooperation
- Detailed Flight Path of the Russian Air Force Il-62M Aircraft (RA-86561)
- Data Disclosure from Flight Tracking Platforms (Flightradar24 and ADS-B Exchange)
- Verification Analysis of Suspected Landing Points via Satellite Imagery
- Strategic Positioning of Relevant Air Bases in the Saratov Region (Engels-2 Strategic Bomber Base)
- Intelligence Disclosure on North Korean Missile Officials' Involvement in Military Operations Against Ukraine
- Recent Key Flight Records Between Russia and North Korea (Il-96-300, Il-62M)
- Legality Statement of Military Cooperation under the Framework of the Russia-North Korea Mutual Defense Treaty
Document Introduction
This report is based on open-source intelligence analysis, focusing on a special aviation incident against the backdrop of escalating Russia-North Korea military cooperation since 2024—a Russian Air Force passenger aircraft made an unexpected stop in North Korea while en route towards Ukraine. The core investigation centers on the abnormal characteristics of this flight route, the data verification process, and its underlying strategic implications.
The core of the incident is the flight trajectory of the Russian Air Force Il-62M aircraft (Registration RA-86561): The aircraft departed from Vladivostok on Sunday, headed towards the east coast of North Korea around 9 PM Korean Standard Time, made a brief stop, and returned to Vladivostok around 11:30 PM before continuing westward across Russian territory. This deviation from the conventional route has sparked speculation about whether it was an alternative route to Ukraine.
The report's data foundation comes from multiple professional platforms: Both Flightradar24 and ADS-B Exchange recorded the aircraft's final suspected landing in an area east of Saratov, approximately 500 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. However, satellite imagery shows the recorded location is actually farmland without a runway, revealing potential errors in ADS-B tracking. Subsequent data indicates the aircraft turned towards Moscow, suggesting its actual destination might be the Engels-2 strategic bomber base near Saratov—a base frequently targeted by Ukrainian airstrikes and also considered a possible arrival point for North Korean military personnel involved in Ukraine.
Additional intelligence shows frequent recent military interactions between Russia and North Korea: Earlier this month, South Korean intelligence agencies disclosed that senior North Korean missile officials assisted Russia in launching missiles towards Ukraine. The Il-62M aircraft involved in this case had traveled to and from North Korea in July and August. Furthermore, on October 17th and last week, other Russian government aircraft, Il-96-300 and Il-62M, traveled between Moscow and Pyongyang, with some flights tasked with transporting military officials.
It is noteworthy that, despite neither side publicly disclosing information on government or military delegation exchanges, both parties assert the legality of their military cooperation based on the "Mutual Defense Treaty" signed in June. This report provides empirical support for understanding the practical operational patterns and geopolitical impact of Russia-North Korea military cooperation through flight path reconstruction, cross-verification of multi-source data, and strategic context interpretation.