Trump's call with Putin: Widespread concerns raised, hopes for peace appear slim.

Key Chapter Title List

1. Shift in U.S. Policy Towards Ukraine
2. Core Causes for Concern
3. Exclusion of Ukraine from the Initiation of Negotiations
4. Major U.S. Concessions to Russia
5. Public Acknowledgment of Ukrainian Territorial Losses
6. The Geo-Economic Logic of U.S. Support for Ukraine
7. Positive Factors in the Situation
8. The Indispensability of the U.S. and Europe in Negotiations
9. Putin's Maximum Demands and the Negotiation Deadlock
10. Potential Political Risks for the Trump Administration
11. Europe at a Crossroads: The Transfer of Security Responsibility
12. Europe's Response Strategy and Capacity Building

Document Introduction

In February 2025, a lengthy phone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, coupled with the concurrent public articulation of a new U.S. stance on European policy by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, jointly triggered heightened international attention regarding the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the European security order. This report centers on this pivotal event, conducting an in-depth analysis of the strategic logic behind the U.S. policy shift and its cascading effects on the Russia-Ukraine negotiation process, NATO development, and the European security architecture.

The report first outlines the specific manifestations of the U.S. policy shift on Ukraine: following the call, Trump expressed a willingness to restore friendly U.S.-Russia relations and vowed to end the Russia-Ukraine war through negotiations, while Hegseth explicitly stated that Ukraine's return to its 1991 borders was unrealistic, opposed further NATO eastward expansion, proposed that peace agreements should be guaranteed by European, not American, forces and not be subject to NATO's collective defense clause, and simultaneously emphasized that the U.S. strategic focus is on the Indo-Pacific region. These statements are consistent with Trump's longstanding positions over recent months advocating for "prioritizing peace over Ukrainian victory" and that "Europe should bear more of the defense burden."

In analyzing the concerning factors, the report points out that the exclusion of Ukraine and European allies from the initial phase of negotiations significantly weakens Kyiv's bargaining power; the U.S. made several key concessions to Russia even before negotiations began, including abandoning NATO's "open door" policy and shirking responsibility for guaranteeing a peace agreement—concessions that align with Russia's long-standing demands; Hegseth's public acknowledgment of Ukrainian territorial losses further undermines the core international norm of territorial integrity; simultaneously, the core logic of U.S. support for Ukraine has shifted towards geo-economic interests, namely accessing Ukraine's mineral resources, rather than strategic or normative considerations. These factors collectively heighten the risk of Ukraine's isolation.

The report also explores positive factors in the situation: without the active participation of Ukraine and Europe, any substantive peace agreement is difficult to achieve; the strong protests from European countries have demonstrated their determination to secure a seat at the negotiating table, and Trump subsequently provided related assurances; Putin's maximum demands (including dismantling the NATO-dominated European security system, restricting Western contact with countries around Russia, and the neutralization and demilitarization of Ukraine) exceed what the U.S. can accept, potentially leading to a negotiation deadlock; furthermore, if an agreement unfavorable to Ukraine is reached, the Trump administration would face severe political backlash. These factors introduce a degree of uncertainty into the situation.

Finally, the report notes that the trend of the U.S. reducing its security commitments to Europe is becoming clear, and Europe stands at a critical crossroads. Facing this reality, the report cites French President Emmanuel Macron's argument that Europe's best response is to strengthen its military, financial, and diplomatic capabilities, gradually achieving a coordinated transfer of continental security responsibility from the United States to Europe itself. This process will profoundly influence the future European security landscape and the trajectory of U.S.-Europe relations.