Global Trends for the Year: A More Competitive World

Key Chapter Title List

1. Core Themes
2. Executive Summary
3. The COVID-19 Factor: Heightened Uncertainty
4. Structural Forces (Demographics & Human Development, Environment, Economy, Technology)
5. Emerging Dynamics (Societal: Disillusionment, Informed & Divided; State: Tension, Turbulence & Transformation; International: Intensified Competition, Rising Uncertainty & Increased Conflict Risk)
6. Scenarios for 2040 (A Democratic Renewal, A World Adrift, Competitive Coexistence, Separate Silos, Tragedy and Mobilization)
7. Regional Outlooks
8. The Future of Terrorism: Multiple Actors and Weakened International Cooperation

Document Introduction

This report is the seventh edition of the quadrennial Global Trends series published by the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC). It aims to provide policymakers with an analytical framework for the strategic environment over the next two decades, rather than a specific prediction of the world in 2040. Using 2021 as a temporal reference point and incorporating the profound impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the report systematically explores the key trends and uncertainties shaping the global future.

The report's core analytical framework is built around two organizing principles: first, identifying and assessing the broad forces shaping the future strategic environment, and second, exploring how populations and leaders respond to these forces. Based on this, the report is divided into three main sections: first, it analyzes the four major structural forces—demographics, environment, economy, and technology—which are foundational, pervasive, and can be reasonably projected based on existing data and evidence; second, it examines how these structural forces interact with other factors to influence emerging dynamics at three levels—societal, state, and international—a section characterized by higher uncertainty due to the variability of future human choices; finally, based on key uncertainty factors, it constructs five possible scenarios for the world in 2040 to broaden the understanding of future possibilities.

The report's data and analytical foundation is broad and diverse, including lessons learned from previous editions, extensive consultations, data collection and commissioned research, as well as in-depth dialogues with global interdisciplinary scholars, business leaders, civil society organizations, youth groups, and others. This multi-dimensional research approach ensures the objectivity and comprehensiveness of the analysis while effectively identifying and mitigating potential biases and cognitive blind spots.

Key findings indicate that the world will face more frequent and intense shared challenges, including climate change, disease outbreaks, financial crises, and technological disruptions, while the increasing fragmentation of communities, states, and the international system complicates responses to these challenges. The imbalance between existing institutions and future challenges will continue to widen, intensifying competition at all levels. Adaptive capacity will become a core advantage for all actors, with technological innovation, policy adjustments, and the building of social consensus determining the development trajectories of different countries and regions.

The five scenarios constructed by the report—A Democratic Renewal, A World Adrift, Competitive Coexistence, Separate Silos, and Tragedy and Mobilization—illustrate future pathways under different combinations of forces and human choices, providing important references for policymakers and the public to anticipate risks and seize opportunities. The regional outlooks section offers specific analyses across nine regions on dimensions such as demographics, economy, governance, digital readiness, and climate impacts, further enhancing the report's practical guidance value.