Global Catastrophic Risk Assessment ()

Key Chapter Title List

1. Introduction
2. What are Catastrophic Risks and Existential Risks?
3. Risk Framework and Methodology
4. Supervolcanoes: Risk Summary
5. Asteroid or Comet Impact: Risk Summary
6. Severe Pandemics: Risk Overview
7. Rapid and Severe Climate Change: Risk Summary
8. Nuclear War: Risk Summary
9. Artificial Intelligence: Risk Summary
10. From Assessment to Managing Global Catastrophic or Existential Risks
11. Literature Search Strategy
12. Glossary

Document Introduction

Against the backdrop of various global extreme events posing potential threats to human civilization, the U.S. Congress passed the Global Catastrophic Risk Management Act (GCRMA) in 2022. This act requires the Department of Homeland Security, in coordination with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), to conduct an assessment of global catastrophic risks and existential risks over the next 30 years. Prepared in response to this requirement and led by the Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center (HSOAC), this report focuses on six core threats: artificial intelligence, asteroid and comet impacts, nuclear war, rapid and severe climate change, severe pandemics, and supervolcanoes, providing a scientific basis for risk management decision-making.

The report systematically defines the core concepts of global catastrophic risk and existential risk. It constructs a risk assessment framework encompassing four key dimensions: mortality, ecosystem instability, social instability, and decline in human capacity, clarifying the methodology and logic of risk analysis. For each threat, the report elaborates on the causes of the risk, potential consequences, probability of occurrence, temporal evolution characteristics, and the quality of evidence supporting the assessment, revealing the unique impact mechanisms and sources of uncertainty for each type of risk.

The study employs a literature synthesis analysis method. Through structured keyword searches, it integrates non-classified, non-sensitive peer-reviewed literature, government research, and private sector research findings from the period 2013-2023, ensuring the objectivity and credibility of the assessment results. The report also emphasizes the analysis of common driving factors affecting the six major risks, including the pace of technological change, the maturity of global governance, the state of human development, and interactions between risks, providing a critical perspective for cross-domain risk management.

Key research findings indicate that global catastrophic risks have shown an overall increasing trend in recent years. Over the next decade, risks related to nuclear war, climate change, pandemics, and artificial intelligence are expected to continue rising, while risks from supervolcanoes, asteroid, and comet impacts remain stable or show a slight decline. The report proposes mitigation strategies covering four dimensions: risk prevention, mechanism disruption, impact mitigation, and response/recovery. It provides specific recommendations for the United States and other nations to develop coordinated risk governance policies, expand federally funded research agendas, and strengthen international cooperation, laying the groundwork for building a resilient global risk response system.