Global Trends of the Year: A World in Transformation

List of Key Chapter Titles

1. The Globalized Economy
2. Contentious Demographics
3. Emerging Actors
4. Scarcity Amid Abundance?
5. Rising Conflict Potential
6. Can the International System Meet the Challenge?
7. Power Sharing in a Multipolar World
8. A World Without Western Dominance (Global Scenario One)
9. October Surprise (Global Scenario Two)
10. BRICS Fracture (Global Scenario Three)
11. Politics No Longer Local (Global Scenario Four)

Document Introduction

This report is the fourth installment in the Global Trends series produced by the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC). It aims to support strategic thinking by identifying key trends, drivers, and their interrelationships, rather than providing precise predictions of future events. The study focuses on the global transformation around 2025, with its core theme centered on the structural shift of the international system from unipolarity to multipolarity, exploring the challenges and opportunities inherent in this process.

The report employs a scenario analysis methodology, constructing four potential future scenarios to illustrate the diverse possible interactions among core drivers such as globalization, demographic changes, the rise of emerging powers, the decline of international institutions, climate change, and energy geopolitics. By focusing on key variables with significant impact on future events, it helps decision-makers identify trend signals and provides a reference for policy intervention.

The research process was highly collaborative and inclusive, convening hundreds of experts from within and outside governments worldwide. Through diverse formats such as workshops and draft reviews, it integrated professional perspectives from different regions and fields. Its data foundation and analytical framework draw on the accumulated experience of the three previous Global Trends reports, ensuring the study's depth and breadth.

The core content covers seven major dimensions: the transfer of wealth and divergence of development models within the globalized economy; the socio-political challenges triggered by population growth, aging, and migration; the rise paths and impacts of emerging powers like China, India, and Russia; the geopolitical consequences of energy, food, and water scarcity alongside climate change; the evolution of conflict forms and nuclear proliferation risks; the fragmentation of the international system and governance deficits; and power sharing and the transformation of U.S. leadership within a multipolar landscape.

Key findings of the report include: by 2025, the international system will exhibit multipolar and dispersed characteristics, with the U.S. remaining the most powerful nation but with its dominance weakened; the trend of wealth and economic power shifting from West to East will continue; resource constraints and the pace of technological innovation will determine the trajectory of global prosperity; conflict risks may stem from resource competition, nuclear proliferation, and the rise of non-state actors; leadership and timely policy interventions can effectively shape the direction of trends, reducing the likelihood and severity of negative developments.

These analyses provide a comprehensive framework for understanding global transformations in the third decade of the 21st century, offering significant reference value for national strategic planning, policy formulation, and risk management.