Global Trade Landscape and the Impact of Trump's Policies: Annual Emerging Markets Outlook

Key Chapter Title List

1. Global Trade: Awaiting Audit Results
2. China: Adjusting Economic Growth Drivers
3. India: Significant Growth Slowdown and Rising Risks
4. South Korea: New Challenges
5. Indonesia: Strong Prospects but Vulnerable to External Shocks
6. Vietnam: Economic Success Threatened by Trump 2.0 Policies?
7. Poland: Towards an Investment Recovery
8. Brazil: Two Sides of the Same Coin
9. Mexico: A Constrained Economy
10. Argentina: Remarkable Stability
11. Saudi Arabia: The High Cost of Diversification
12. Egypt: Economic Vulnerabilities Persist Despite Positive Momentum

Document Introduction

In early 2025, the Trump administration, upon taking office, fulfilled its threat to raise tariffs. The core of its policy aims to protect US producers, exert external pressure through immigration and anti-drug policies, and its trade policy focus is concentrated on China, without explicitly mentioning other emerging countries. This policy uncertainty has triggered adjustments in the global trade landscape, and the results of the US audit of trade relations with all partners (expected to be announced in early April) will be a key milestone for the implementation of tariff policies.

The report's core focuses on the "two-speed growth" trend in global trade: trade growth in Emerging Markets and Developing countries (EMDs) is expected to reach 5% in 2025, significantly higher than the pre-COVID-19 pandemic average of 3.9% from 2012-2018; while trade growth in advanced economies is projected to decline from 3.4% in the same period to 2.1%. This divergence stems from weak trade growth in the Eurozone and the UK, the offsetting effect of an overvalued US dollar on the efficacy of US tariff protection policies, and the simultaneous redirection of export flows from emerging Asian economies.

Regarding major emerging economies, the report provides in-depth analysis for each: China faces dual pressures of weak domestic demand and tariff impacts, and will stimulate the economy through monetary and fiscal policies while promoting a rebalancing of its growth model; Vietnam, due to its high dependence on US exports and significant trade surplus, becomes a potential key target of tariff policies; countries like India and Indonesia, while having limited direct trade exposure, are vulnerable to capital outflows and exchange rate volatility; Middle Eastern and African countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt need to manage policy spillover effects amid energy market fluctuations and geopolitical balancing.

The report's data foundation includes International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts, Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data, national customs statistics, and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) trade in value-added statistics. The analytical methodology combines macroeconomic modeling with comparative country case studies. The research finds that the indirect effects of increased tariff barriers (such as export flow diversion and regional supply chain restructuring) may partially offset the direct negative impacts, and the policy response capacity and economic structural resilience of emerging economies will determine their growth prospects.

For policymakers and market participants, the report provides key references: emerging economies need to strengthen internal demand and optimize trade partner structures to hedge against external uncertainties; enterprises should pay attention to the trend of supply chain regionalization and adjust production and export layouts; international investors need to focus on assessing the risks and opportunities brought by the pace of tariff policy implementation and exchange rate volatility.