Philippine Bases: Risks to U.S. Security

Key Chapter Title List

1. The Geopolitical Stage
2. U.S. Presence in the Pacific
3. U.S. Base Facilities
4. Post-Marcos Power Transition
5. Alternative Base Arrangements
6. Policy Elements

Document Introduction

In the 1980s, as the U.S.-Soviet Cold War entered a critical phase, the Philippines, serving as a core military pivot for the United States in the Western Pacific, saw its base issue directly linked to U.S. regional security strategy. This book focuses on the core issue of the U.S.-Philippines Military Bases Agreement, analyzing the strategic significance of these bases for the United States in deterring Soviet expansion and ensuring the security of maritime routes.

The report traces the historical origins of U.S.-Philippines military relations, from the U.S. occupation of the Philippines following the Spanish-American War in 1898 to the central role of the bases in the regional security architecture during the Cold War, outlining key historical junctures and the thread of strategic decision-making.

The book provides a detailed analysis of the functional positioning of core facilities such as Clark Air Base and Subic Bay Naval Base, including critical missions like logistics support, power projection, and intelligence surveillance, highlighting their irreplaceability in military operations across the Western Pacific and Indian Ocean regions.

Addressing internal challenges in the post-Marcos era Philippines, such as political turmoil, economic crisis, and communist insurgency, the report assesses the renewal pressures and domestic opposition facing the U.S.-Philippines Bases Agreement, exploring the impact of anti-American sentiment and sovereignty disputes on the continuation of the bases.

By comparing the advantages and disadvantages of potential alternative base options such as Japan, Guam, the Mariana Islands, and the Taiwan region, the report provides an in-depth analysis of the strategic costs and security risks for the United States following the loss of its Philippine bases.

Ultimately, the report proposes that the United States should stabilize the situation in the Philippines and retain base access rights through a policy mix of economic aid, military cooperation, and agreement renewal negotiations, in order to maintain strategic balance in the Western Pacific region.