The Future of Rakhine State – An Interview with the Commander-in-Chief of the Arakan Army

Key Chapter Title List

1. How long will it take for the Arakan Army to fully liberate Rakhine State?
2. What are the core factors behind the Arakan Army's rapid rise?
3. Do the Arakan Army and the United League of Arakan belong to the Spring Revolution?
4. What are the possible outcomes of Myanmar's Spring Revolution?
5. How should the allegations of the Arakan Army mistreating Rohingya be viewed?
6. How does the Arakan Army plan to handle the issue of Rohingya refugee repatriation?
7. Differences between the Arakan Army and the National Unity Government on the Rohingya issue
8. Timeline for the United League of Arakan to establish an alternative administrative system
9. What administrative model will the Arakan Army adopt?
10. Solutions to the resource shortage problem in Rakhine State
11. Controversy and resolution path triggered by the Arakan Army's occupation of Paletwa
12. The future positioning of Rakhine State and its relationship with Myanmar

Document Introduction

This report is based on the core content of an exclusive interview granted by Lieutenant General Twan Mrat Naing, Commander-in-Chief of the Arakan Army (AA) and Chairman of the United League of Arakan (ULA), to *The Diplomat* magazine on September 6, 2024. It focuses on the critical geopolitical issue of the current situation and future direction of Myanmar's Rakhine State. As one of the most successful ethnic armed organizations in Myanmar opposing the military junta's State Administration Council (SAC), the Arakan Army has intensified its military operations since November 13, 2023, and now controls 11 out of 18 townships in Rakhine State and southern Chin State. Its strategic decisions and governance measures significantly impact the pattern of Myanmar's internal conflict and regional security dynamics.

The interview centered on the Arakan Army's military progress, the logic behind its rise, and its political positioning. The Commander-in-Chief emphasized that the liberation of Rakhine State is a combination of historical mission and pragmatic goals, to be advanced based on situational developments rather than a fixed timetable. Its rapid rise is attributed to learning from the experiences of previous revolutionaries, leadership building, organizational capacity enhancement, ethnic unity, and the construction of strategic alliances. Regarding its relationship with Myanmar's Spring Revolution, the Arakan Army clarified that it has its own independent vision and goals, while acknowledging the mutual benefits of the struggle against the military junta forces. It believes the outcome of the revolution depends on the unity, capability, and cooperation of all parties.

Addressing the internationally prominent Rohingya issue, the Arakan Army Commander-in-Chief refuted allegations of mistreating Rohingya, stressing that the United League of Arakan government is committed to promoting social cohesion, inclusive governance, and equal treatment for all communities. Its administrative system includes members from different ethnic and religious backgrounds, and its armed actions have never targeted specific ethnic groups. On the issue of refugee repatriation, the Arakan Army supports the principle of voluntary, dignified, and safe repatriation but points out that prerequisite conditions such as border security, transnational crime, and threats from Rohingya radical organizations collaborating with the military junta must be prioritized for resolution.

The report also details the Arakan Army's governance plans and the practical challenges it faces: In terms of administrative construction, it plans to first establish a centralized, unitary state system with the United League of Arakan as the leading core, gradually devolving power in the future, with economic policies being welfare-oriented. Regarding resource security, while food is temporarily self-sufficient, there is a shortage of all kinds of goods except for grains, oil, and vegetables, necessitating reliance on international humanitarian support and the expansion of border trade. In regional relations, addressing opposition from Chin resistance organizations triggered by the occupation of Paletwa, the Arakan Army emphasizes the historical and geographical connection of the area to Rakhine State and is willing to peacefully resolve disputes through the "Chin Brotherhood" mechanism to ensure the advancement of regional infrastructure projects like the Kaladan project.

Ultimately, the core goal of the Arakan Army is to achieve the right to self-determination for the people of Rakhine State, building a sovereign, strong, peaceful, prosperous, and dignified state, maintaining mutually beneficial relations with other governments in Myanmar, and ensuring equal rights and shared responsibilities for all communities. This interview transcript provides authoritative first-hand material for understanding the internal logic of Myanmar's ethnic armed movement, the future direction of Rakhine State, and related geopolitical dynamics.