Trapped in a Transformation Dilemma: Politics and Violence in Haiti (-)

Key Chapter Title List

1. Introduction
2. The Dilemma of the Transitional Government
3. Haiti's Path to Reform
4. Gang Threats and Inadequate Response
5. Achieving Security and Stability in Haiti
6. Conclusion

Document Introduction

Following the assassination of Haitian President Jovenel Moïse in 2021, the country descended into prolonged political turmoil and escalating violence. In early 2024, gang alliances launched a large-scale siege on the capital, Port-au-Prince, controlling over 80% of the city and triggering a humanitarian disaster. Throughout 2024, over 5,600 people were killed in gang violence, millions were displaced, and nearly half the population faced a food crisis. Against this backdrop, international forces including CARICOM and the United States pushed for the establishment of a transitional government. The Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission, led by Kenya and authorized by the United Nations, deployed in an attempt to break the gangs' control.

Since its establishment in April 2024, the transitional government has been hampered by partisan infighting and corruption allegations. Power disputes erupted between the Presidential Transitional Council and two successive prime ministers. Three council members faced a crisis of trust due to bribery allegations, and disagreements with their backing political factions further weakened the government's governance capacity. Preparations for the constitutional reform referendum and the end-of-2025 general elections progressed slowly. The Provisional Electoral Council did not complete its member appointments until December 2024, voter registration updates lagged, and the deteriorating security environment cast serious doubt on the feasibility of holding elections.

The expansion of gang power constitutes the core security threat. Gang alliances such as "Viv Ansanm" not only control key transportation routes and urban areas but also strengthen their capabilities by releasing prisoners and attacking military and police facilities. They have even planned to form political parties to participate in the political process. The Multinational Security Support mission struggled to function effectively due to funding shortages and personnel deficits (by early 2025, only about 1,000 personnel were deployed, far short of the 2,500 target). The Haitian National Police suffers from a severe lack of equipment and significant personnel attrition. While the rise of self-defense groups has filled some of the security vacuum, it has also increased the risk of escalating conflict.

The report is based on interviews conducted between March 2024 and February 2025 with 232 key stakeholders, covering areas such as public administration, security forces, and civil society. The analysis indicates that the transitional government must prioritize resolving internal political divisions and establishing an effective national security strategy. The international community should strengthen financial and logistical support for the security mission through UN mechanisms, or consider transforming it into a peacekeeping operation to concentrate efforts on weakening gang power.

The report emphasizes that hastily holding elections before security conditions improve could allow gang elements to infiltrate the political system. It recommends establishing a "Factions Congress" mechanism to coordinate the interests of various parties and setting clear security benchmarks before advancing the electoral process. Constitutional reform should adhere to the principles of inclusivity and transparency, avoiding the forceful promotion of institutional changes lacking broad consensus during a state of crisis.