Two days, four countries, Zelensky is really in a hurry...
Since the "Victory Plan" aimed at "forcing peace" with Russia was proposed at the end of the month, Zelensky has been busy traveling around, promoting the plan to allies and requesting a "Victory Plan" summit in Germany. However, due to uncontrollable factors such as a hurricane in the United States, Biden canceled his trip to Germany to attend the summit. In this context, Zelensky recently embarked on a whirlwind European tour lasting several hours, visiting the UK, France, Italy, and Germany in succession, hoping to secure more international support. Despite much effort, it seems that Zelensky did not gain much breakthrough support.
As the harsh winter approaches, Ukraine faces multiple challenges. Ensuring a warm winter for Ukraine has become the most pressing issue for President Zelensky. The harshest winter is imminent. The battlefield is under pressure, and the situation is not optimistic. The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to drag on, and the situation Ukraine has faced in recent weeks is not promising. In the eastern direction, Russian forces successfully captured the important Ukrainian town of Vuhledar on the day and are attempting to advance further towards the logistics hub of Pokrovsk. President Zelensky acknowledged that the Ukrainian military's situation in the eastern Donetsk region and the southern Zaporizhzhia region is extremely difficult.
In the Kursk direction, since the beginning of the month, nearly half of the territories in the Kursk region of Russia, which were previously controlled by the Ukrainian armed forces, have been re-controlled by the Russian armed forces. As winter approaches, the Russian military's advance on the battlefield is increasingly putting pressure on Ukraine. On the designated date, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that the Russian military has taken control of the Levadnoye settlement in the Zaporizhzhia region.
As the year draws to a close and the weather turns bitterly cold, the lives of the people become increasingly difficult. With the onset of winter, the situation for the people of Ukraine has also grown more challenging. Due to Russia's extensive aerial attacks on Ukraine's power stations and grid infrastructure, Ukraine faces a power deficit of up to gigawatts, equivalent to a third of the peak electricity demand during the winter. This not only disrupts the normal lives of the people but also poses a threat to the social stability of Ukraine.
In addition, to supplement the military manpower, Ukraine revised its conscription law, lowered the minimum conscription age, and intensified conscription mobilization, which has caused strong unease within Ukrainian society. Many Ukrainian men are worried about insufficient training and the possibility of not returning after being conscripted, so they choose to hide at home to avoid being "drafted." Conscription officials have even raided restaurants, bars, and music venues to search for male citizens who should serve in the military, further increasing public anxiety. Recently, Ukrainian conscription officers have been conducting late-night raids on entertainment venues in various cities, taking away multiple men.
"Whirlwind" diplomacy yields little effect. Multiple aid summits for Ukraine have been canceled. The "Victory Plan" summit was originally scheduled to be held at the largest NATO military base in Europe—the Ramstein Air Base in Germany. According to the original plan, Biden was to visit Germany and hold a four-way meeting with British Prime Minister Sunak, French President Macron, and German Chancellor Scholz. The four leaders were to hear Zelensky's latest version of the "Victory Plan." However, due to the sudden arrival of Hurricane Milton, Biden canceled his planned trip to Germany, and thus the summit did not take place as scheduled. Although Scholz promised to reschedule Biden's visit, considering the limited time left in Biden's term, this seems unlikely to happen. Zelensky also expressed strong dissatisfaction with this situation. Additionally, the second Ukraine-related summit scheduled for this month has also been postponed, which is undoubtedly a double blow to Zelensky.
The reactions of Western leaders have been lukewarm. This European trip is seen as an important diplomatic move by Zelensky to seek more international support and understanding, following Biden's absence from the "Victory Plan" summit. Since its proposal, the content of the "Victory Plan" has not been publicly disclosed, but according to various speculations, the plan focuses on Ukraine's unrestricted use of foreign military aid and economic support, Ukraine's accession to NATO, and the continued supply of advanced weapons by the West. If successfully implemented, the "Victory Plan" could indeed alleviate Ukraine's difficulties to some extent, but currently, the reactions of Western leaders are neither hot nor cold.
The Western allies are cautious about Ukraine's "Victory Plan," especially when it comes to the issue of whether to allow Ukraine to use long-range weapons to strike Russian territory, where there are differences. As early as the date, Zelensky introduced the "Victory Plan" to Biden during their meeting. However, according to US media reports, the US is not satisfied with the "Victory Plan," believing it lacks a comprehensive strategy and is merely an "overly packaged petition" for weapons and the lifting of missile restrictions.
On the date, Zelensky met with Biden. During his visit to four European countries, Zelensky, despite being received with high-level hospitality and holding talks with the leaders of these countries, failed to persuade Europe to lift restrictions on Ukraine's use of long-range missiles to strike targets within Russian territory. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg stated that Ukraine has the legal right to use such missiles, but the decision ultimately lies with its allies. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak emphasized that victory in war cannot be achieved solely through weapons. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni also expressed that Italy will stand by Ukraine, but the use of weapons is limited to within Ukraine's borders. Meanwhile, although France and Germany pledged that future aid will not be reduced, the amount of future assistance is likely to decrease due to financial pressures within the EU.
On the date, Zelensky (leftmost) met with Starmer (second from left) and Rutte (rightmost). The fate of Ukraine faces uncertainty. Against the backdrop of the approaching US presidential election, the future of Ukraine has become even more uncertain. The Biden administration's attention is tied up with domestic politics, and the level and sustainability of support for Ukraine are both uncertain. The growing division within the US over whether to continue deep involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict undoubtedly makes it more difficult for Ukraine to secure greater international support.
Although Zelensky is making efforts to promote his "victory plan," facing the cautious attitude of the US-Western allies and the upcoming US election, whether he can achieve his wishes remains to be seen. From the Maidan Revolution in 2014 to the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Ukraine has essentially been playing the role of a deceived party, completely becoming a pawn for the United States to weaken Russia and control the EU. The prolonged war may have little impact on the manipulators behind the scenes, but it will bring permanent pain to the parties involved in the conflict. Ceasefire, stop the war, and resolve politically—these are the wise choices.