Recently, an account named "Middle East Observer" posted on the social media platform "Telegram" what it claimed to be top-secret intelligence documents originating from the United States, revealing Israel's plans for retaliation against Iran. The U.S. side stated that it is investigating this leak.

As the incident continues to escalate, analysis points out that the leak indicates the United States has once again employed its "eavesdropping" skills to monitor Israel's intelligence. Some media speculate that this leak was orchestrated or deliberately allowed by the United States, aiming to force Israel to delay its military retaliation against Iran, thereby avoiding any impact on the U.S. presidential election.

Top secret intelligence has been made public. The social media account named "Middle East Observer" reported that Israel is preparing to strike Iran. The documents disclosed by the account describe the ammunition movements and military exercises of the Israeli side. Since the date, the Israeli Air Force has deployed dozens of air-launched ballistic missiles at the Hatzerim Air Force Base; on the date, the Israeli Air Force conducted exercises, practicing aerial refueling and combat search and rescue operations, involving refueling aircraft, early warning aircraft, and possibly fighter jets; from the date to the date, several air-to-ground missiles were deployed at the Ramat David Air Force Base and Ramon Air Force Base; on the date, the Israeli military continued to use drones for secret operations. The documents also mention that the United States has not seen any indication that Israel plans to use nuclear weapons. CNN reports that this implies Israel actually possesses nuclear weapons.

According to the messages posted by the account and reports from U.S. media, the sources of these documents include the U.S. National Security Agency and the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, which is under the U.S. Department of Defense, and the documents can only be viewed by the "Five Eyes" countries, namely the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. "Middle East Observer" has issued multiple statements claiming that these documents were received through anonymous private messages. "Middle East Observer" has no contact with the leaker, does not know the identity of the leaker, and is also unclear about the authenticity of the leaked documents. CNN reported that a knowledgeable source has confirmed the authenticity of these documents.

U.S. Government Launches Emergency Investigation. A U.S. official stated that a review is currently underway to determine who has access to these documents. It is reported that any such leak would automatically trigger an investigation by the FBI, the Department of Defense, and U.S. intelligence agencies. U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson said on the same day that the U.S. is investigating the leak of Israel's plans for retaliation against Iran. Johnson noted that he had spoken with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and would receive a classified briefing on the leak later that day, but did not provide specific details about the briefing.

John Kirby, the National Security Council Strategic Communications Coordinator at the White House, stated at a press conference that the United States is still unclear how the Department of Defense's documents regarding Israel's planned retaliatory attack on Iran were leaked to the public domain. The Department of Defense is currently investigating this leak. Kirby said that President Biden is "deeply concerned" about this matter and will actively oversee the progress of the investigation to ascertain the situation. Kirby noted that there are no indications that more classified documents will be leaked, and the United States has communicated with Israel about the issue.

Israel's Retaliation Plan Against Iran May Be Adjusted. On the evening of the month, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu convened a security cabinet meeting in Tel Aviv. It is widely predicted that this meeting may decide on the methods, timing, and scale of Israel's potential strikes against Iran. The Israeli government has not disclosed the details of the meeting. According to Israeli media reports citing the Prime Minister's Office and sources, the meeting discussed the issue of advancing the Gaza personnel exchange agreement but did not extensively discuss potential military actions against Iran.

The relevant information is difficult to verify, but an Israeli official disclosed to the media before the meeting that Israel's military action against Iran is already a "done deal." In the past few days, firstly, Israel's plans for action against Iran were suspected to have been leaked, and the Israeli side did not respond to this, only an anonymous official stated that Israel takes this matter very seriously. Secondly, the Prime Minister's private residence was attacked by a drone, although the attack itself was carried out by Hezbollah, Netanyahu and others have pointed the finger at Iran. Israeli media believe that these incidents may prompt Israel to reconsider its retaliatory actions against Iran, including the scale, methods, and timing, but the specifics remain unknown.

In response to the leak of Israel's retaliatory plans against Iran, experts have analyzed that the leaked report includes details of some weaponry and equipment deployment by the Israeli military. The authenticity of the documents in this leak has been verified by relevant parties, directly disrupting Israel's military deployment and operational plans. Israel will now have to re-adjust its overall military arrangements. How will Israel adjust its strike plans against Iran? First, the timing of the strikes may be altered. While it is widely believed that the intelligence leak will force Israel to delay its strike timing, Israel might also choose to act contrary to this expectation. Second, the targets of the strikes may change. Previously, it was rumored that Israel had excluded sensitive military facilities and oil infrastructure in Iran. To increase deterrence, Israel may reconsider including these sensitive targets in its strike scope. Third, the methods of attack may differ. The disclosed equipment may be adjusted during actual combat. Fourth, there will be an increased focus on intelligence warfare. This intelligence leak serves as a reminder for Israel, which will undoubtedly intensify its efforts in counter-espionage and intelligence collection on Iran. Additionally, Israel may take the opportunity to disseminate false intelligence to confuse the enemy and provide cover for its true strike operations.

Israeli media believes that, for now, Israel's actions will likely continue to rely primarily on its air force, which holds a significant advantage, including its -, -, and - squadrons. Notably, the Israeli military has designed conformal fuel tanks for its fighter jets, including the -, enabling them to conduct long-range strike missions. Additionally, multiple air-to-ground missiles such as the "Rage," "Delilah," and "Rock" can be launched from these aircraft, with ranges extending to even kilometers. These missiles, combined with drone harassment of Iran's air defense systems, are intended to facilitate strikes on Iran's key targets. Israeli media also suggests that to avoid triggering a large-scale, full-scale conflict with Iran, Israel's actions may still focus on deterrence, demonstrating the military's capability to launch powerful strikes on Iran's critical targets at any time.

Iran's Multi-Faceted Strategy to Counter Possible Israeli Retaliation Actions. Firstly, Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif has been conducting continuous "shuttle diplomacy" with regional countries. Over the past half month, Foreign Minister Zarif has visited Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Iraq, Jordan, and Egypt in succession to discuss regional situations, particularly the Israel-Palestine conflict and the Israel-Lebanon standoff. In all these visits, parties involved have expressed their commitment to jointly work towards stopping the crimes committed by Israel in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, and to promptly provide humanitarian aid to the displaced.

Secondly, the Iranian military has recently been making frequent statements that if Israel launches a military aggression against Iran, Iran will respond decisively. On a specific date, Rear Admiral Shahram Irani, commander of the Iranian Navy, stated that any aggressive actions by Israel against Iran would be met with a shocking and devastating response. He pointed out that the military actions on a certain date only showcased a small fraction of Iran's capabilities. Israel might believe that the THAAD system could help them defend against Iran's attacks, but this is a mistaken notion. Iran is aware of Israel's weaknesses, and they themselves should also be clear about their own vulnerabilities.

Leak reveals US detailed surveillance of Israeli military activities. Regarding the leak, US media believes that the leaked documents show that the US has conducted very detailed surveillance and reconnaissance of Israel's military activities through means such as satellites. US media reporters point out that although the US has been making efforts to obtain information directly from Israel, understand intelligence about Israel's plans for retaliation against Iran, and engage in various dialogues, the US itself is still collecting intelligence and monitoring Israel's activities in order to independently grasp what may happen.

Michael Muroy, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Middle East Affairs, stated that if the tactical plan for Israel's response to Iran's alleged attack on a specific date was indeed leaked, it would constitute a "serious dereliction of duty," potentially damaging the trust between the United States and Israel. CNN reported that the leak occurred at a "highly sensitive" time in U.S.-Israel relations, "bound to anger Israel," and also revealed information about Israel's possession of nuclear weapons, something the country has long refused to publicly acknowledge.

Experts have analyzed that, based on the style of writing, the content of this intelligence primarily consists of information summaries and projections by U.S. intelligence agencies on the current situation, rather than direct intelligence sharing from Israel to the U.S. In terms of content, the accuracy of the information may not be fully guaranteed, but it clearly indicates that the U.S. is monitoring Israel's intelligence activities. The documents also suggest that the U.S. and Israel do not seem to be cooperating and communicating as deeply on key issues as expected by the outside world.

From the perspective of the recipients of this intelligence, the United States is sharing the results of its surveillance on Israel, which are highly valued by Israel and pertain to reshaping regional military deterrence and safeguarding its national security, with other members of the "Five Eyes Alliance." This is bound to provoke strong dissatisfaction from Israel and affect Israel's judgment on its relationship with the United States and its positioning of the U.S.-Israel relationship.