Who leads the property market "Xiaoyangchun"

editor's note 进入3月份以来，楼市迎来所谓“金三银四”，尽管同比来看，市场整体热度不及去年，但环比来看，部分热点城市成交反弹明显。一方面多重政策利好，加上房价下行，刺激刚需入市；另一方面，置换也带来大量需求。本期地产周刊主要聚焦一二线热点城市，盘点首季市场表现，重点剖析哪些城市热度较高，领跑本轮反弹行情。

First-tier cities take the lead, second-tier cities "bloom at multiple points"
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楼市热点**

■ China Economic Times reporter Zhou Xuesong

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Since entering March, the property market has shown signs of recovery, with the most significant month-on-month increase in transactions in the second-hand housing market in hot cities.

Data from the China Index Research Institute shows that from the perspective of the second-hand housing market in core cities, transaction volumes in Beijing, Shenzhen and Chengdu have increased significantly. Among them, nearly 1,000 second-hand housing units were sold in Shenzhen last week (March 18 to March 24), rising to the highest weekly level since April 2023. The weekly number of second-hand housing units in Beijing and Chengdu continued to rise. Due to the policy implementation time is relatively short, the policy effect has not yet been fully reflected.
Li Wenjie, senior vice president of Shell and president of the Shell Research Institute, recently told a China Economic Times reporter that in the first two weeks of March, the transaction volume of second-hand shell houses in Shenzhen, Nanjing, Hefei, Changsha, Lanzhou, Dalian, Changzhou, Luoyang, Jiaxing and other cities exceeded the same period last year. In February, the cumulative transaction volume of second-hand shell houses in Hangzhou, Xuzhou, Huizhou, Quanzhou, Harbin and other cities also exceeded the same period last year. The transaction volume and price of second-hand houses in second-tier and even third-and fourth-tier cities have been significantly restored.

Zhuge housing search data shows that in the first two months of the first quarter, 13308 units of second-hand houses were sold in Guangzhou, a year-on-year increase of 29.7%; as of March 24, 8365 units of second-hand houses were sold in Shenzhen in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 18%. These two first-tier cities lead the second-hand housing market, and the second-hand housing market in more hot second-tier cities has also rebounded significantly, showing a trend of "blooming at multiple points".

As favorable policies are implemented, first-tier cities take the lead, more second-tier cities follow suit, and real estate companies are promoting price cuts, the property market is expected to pick up further.

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The property market rebound "blooms at multiple points"

Chengdu's property market, which led the country last year, once again staged "Xiaoyangchun" this year. The Chengdu Xipai Shaocheng project operated by China Railway Construction Corporation recently launched 536 residential units, attracting 1978 customer groups to be shortlisted, with a winning rate of only 27.1%. The 508 residential units recently entered the market in Yuexi W2, a Luhu Ecological City located in Tianfu New District, also attracted more than 4000 groups of customers to queue up. Both Xipai Shaocheng and Luhu Ecological City Yuexi W2 were liquidated on the first day of opening.

Last year, Chengdu property market with 146,000 sets of new house turnover, 220,000 sets of second-hand housing turnover, stood at the top of the national property market. According to data released by the Sichuan Zhongyuan Research Institute, from March 18 to March 24, a total of 6 projects opened in Chengdu, and the overall removal rate reached 87%.

"This year, the second-hand housing market in Chengdu City is still OK, but compared with the same period last year, it is definitely not comparable, because the transactions in the same period last year were the result of the three-year backlog of epidemic demand, which is the trend across the country." Feng Bo, deputy director of the Chengdu City Urban Construction and Development Research Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from the China Economic Times.

Feng Bo told reporters that since March this year, the number of second-hand housing sales and transactions in Chengdu City have increased significantly. According to rough statistics, the transaction volume has exceeded 20% in September 2023. According to the agency's prediction, the overall trend of Chengdu's second-hand housing market this year is relatively stable, and "Xiaoyangchun" is expected.

According to a reporter from the China Economic Times, from January to February this year, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Chengdu City achieved positive growth year-on-year, ranking among the top 22 long-term mechanism pilot cities in the country. Although Chengdu's new housing market is not very good, as the economic environment gradually improves, the market is expected to further stabilize and recover.

It can also be seen from other cities across the country that the recovery of the property market is showing a phenomenon of "blooming at multiple points" and a gradual rebound in volume. Taking the northern cities of Tianjin and Qingdao as examples, data from the Kerui Research Center shows that the second-hand housing market continues to heat up after the Spring Festival, and second-hand housing transactions have increased steadily from the 8th to the 11th weeks. In the 11th week, the number of sets traded in Tianjin and Qingdao reached 1092 and 1389 respectively, which was higher than the average weekly number of sets traded in January this year and basically reached a weekly high since the second quarter of last year.

In the central city of Wuhan, the second-hand housing market also rebounded sharply compared with the Spring Festival week, reaching a nearly one-year high. The number of sets sold in the 10th week of this year was as high as 1322, which was basically the same as the transaction volume in the 10th week of last year. However, judging from the rebound strength and transaction volume, there is still a certain gap between the fifth week and the seventh week after the Spring Festival in 2023.

The average weekly number of units sold in Nanjing's second-hand housing market from the 8th to the 10th week was 1405 units, which is still a significant gap from the weekly average of 1705 units in January. However, the market outlook is still worth looking forward to. It is worth mentioning that in early March, two new listings in Nanjing also ignited the "Golden Third" market, and the new housing market was gradually restored to the pre-holiday level after the holiday.

Driven by the factors of "increased discounts and entry of hot properties in core areas" by real estate companies, the visits and de-transformation of Nanjing's new project have increased to a phased high. From Week 8 to Week 10, the average number of units sold per week was 488, while the average number of units sold per week in January was 383 units. Judging from the four projects opened in March, the price of hot properties entering the market after the holiday has driven the removal rate to rebound. 34%, a monthly high since 2022.

Zhang Bo, president of the 58 Anjuke Research Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from the China Economic Times that from the current point of view, this year's "Xiaoyangchun" momentum is generally weak. However, it is worth noting that some hot cities performed better.

According to Anjuke data, the markets of Xi'an, Changsha, Shanghai, Harbin, Hefei, Wuhan, Shenzhen and Hangzhou have recovered well. They have recovered rapidly since the Spring Festival, and the online popularity potential is strong. Therefore, it has a certain foundation for "Xiaoyangchun" popularity.

On March 30, some media disclosed that the number of second-hand online signings in Guangzhou exceeded 9000 in March, a month-on-month increase of 90%. The city's online signings for new homes increased by 70% month-on-month. Wang Xiaoqiang, head of the Zhuge Housing Research Center, said in an interview with a reporter from the China Economic Times that judging from the transaction volume in the second-hand housing market, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are currently leading the way and are relatively better. As of March 24, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in second-tier cities such as Suzhou, Nanjing, Qingdao, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Dongguan, Foshan, and Zhengzhou in the first quarter significantly exceeded the level of the same period in 2022.

2

"Price for volume" helps the property market recover

Judging from transaction data, the property market has left behind the worst and most difficult period during the epidemic. However, Zhang Bo pointed out that in the first quarter of this year, due to the significant decrease in transaction volume year-on-year, even if several cities were popular, judging from the actual transaction volume, it was still a relatively dull "Xiaoyangchun".

"At present, most of the cities where 'Xiaoyangchun' may appear are regional head cities. Especially the recovery of the Yangtze River Delta market is relatively obvious. At the same time, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and the southwest region are also worthy of attention." Zhang Bo told reporters.

Overall, the current rebound in visits to the new housing market far exceeds subscriptions. Taking Tianjin and Qingdao as examples, data from the Kerui Research Center shows that the project opening rate is still below 40%, and transactions have not yet been restored to pre-holiday levels.

In terms of price, after the Spring Festival, Wuhan's second-hand housing market has warmed up significantly. Although owners 'enthusiasm for listing has increased, expectations have dropped and second-hand housing prices have continued to decline. According to CRIC monitoring data, Wuhan's second-hand residential market has started a fluctuating downward trend since the epidemic in early 2020. Especially since the second half of 2022, the overall decline has been obvious. By the end of February 2024, it has dropped to 14742 yuan/square meter, a record low.

Wuhan's new housing market was gradually repaired after the holiday. Due to the increased discounts of real estate companies, special housing units for arrival and clearing houses were launched to attract visitors and gather popularity, thus driving project visits to a phased high, exceeding the average weekly visit volume in the first month before the holiday. The price reduction promotion effect of real estate enterprises is also remarkable. The overall promotional price of a local project dropped by about 17% compared with February, prompting a sharp increase in weekly subscriptions by about 15 times.

At present, whether it is second-hand housing or new housing, prices are basically still declining, and the market has obvious characteristics of "price for volume". In the past, due to high housing prices, potential demand could not be released. However, during this round of property market adjustment, prices continued to fall through the transfer of profits by second-hand housing owners and price reductions by real estate companies, which stimulated rigid and improving demand to enter the market, and market transactions were further amplified. If this continues, it is expected to help the property market recover further.

Financial observer Bai Wenxi said in an interview with a reporter from the China Economic Times that it is very important for the real estate market to adhere to market-oriented reform. "Deepening market-oriented reform is the key to the sustained and healthy development of real estate." He believes that the sustainable development of the real estate industry needs to return to the residential function of the house, while respecting its commodity and asset attributes to ensure the normal performance of the market transaction function.