The prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has dragged on for over two years, has recently made another big headline. Following accusations from Ukraine and South Korea that North Korea has essentially sent troops to assist Russia in its operations, Russia officially denied the claims on [specific date], labeling them as "baseless speculation." Maria Zakharova, spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, emphasized that cooperation between Russia and North Korea in the military and other fields complies with international law and does not pose any harm to South Korea. With all relevant parties having publicly responded to the issue of whether North Korean troops have been dispatched to Russia, the truth of the matter has become increasingly elusive.

The parties involved each have their own version of events. Ukraine: There is video evidence to support the truth. Since a certain month, Ukrainian President Zelensky has mentioned on multiple occasions that North Korea has effectively become a "participant" in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, not only providing equipment to Russia but also sending soldiers. On a certain date, Ukraine released an "exclusive" video, claiming that North Korean soldiers were seen receiving Russian military equipment at a training ground in Russia, preparing for deployment to Ukraine.

South Korea: Evidence has been obtained. On the date, the National Intelligence Service of South Korea released satellite images, claiming that North Korea has decided to send approximately 30,000 special operations troops, organized into several brigades, to fight in Russia. The first batch of 1,000 soldiers has already departed for Vladivostok, Russia, and the second batch will soon follow. The NIS stated that between the 10th and 12th of this month, the first group of soldiers traveled from the areas near Chongjin, Hamhung, and Musudan-ri in northern North Korea to Russia aboard three landing ships and two护卫舰under the command of the Russian Pacific Fleet. That afternoon, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol convened an emergency security meeting. On the date, Kim Hong-ki, the first vice minister of the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs, summoned the Russian ambassador to South Korea and strongly urged Russia to immediately arrange for the withdrawal of North Korean troops and cease related cooperation with North Korea.

Russia: Normal Cooperation. In response to South Korea's summoning of the Russian ambassador to express protest, the Russian Embassy in South Korea stated on its social media account: "The cooperation between Russia and North Korea is conducted within the framework of international law and does not target South Korea's security interests." This is the first time Russia has responded after South Korea's intelligence agency made the information public. Subsequently, during the BRICS summit in Japan, Russia officially denied the matter. The Russian side stated that this is related to Ukraine's two-year request for South Korea to provide lethal weapons to Ukraine, and it is clear that South Korea was incited by the West to provoke. The Russian side believes that the South Korean authorities should not collude with Ukraine.

USA and NATO: It is true. Earlier this month, US Defense Secretary Austin, White House spokesperson, and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg all stated that there was no direct evidence showing North Korea had sent troops to Russia. However, on the day of the month, both the NATO spokesperson and US Defense Secretary Austin confirmed that evidence of North Korean troops being deployed to Russia had been obtained.

Has North Korea participated in the war? As of now, despite evidence provided by both South Korea and Ukraine, there remains skepticism about whether North Korea truly dispatched troops to assist Russia in combat. Jiuwanli believes that both possibilities exist. The South Korean intelligence agency claims that this synthetic aperture radar satellite image shows Russian transport ships ferrying North Korean troops to Russia.

Participation in the War: A Win-Win Situation for Both North Korea and Russia. For North Korea, since the "Arduous March" of the 1990s, the country has long faced food shortages, and this year's frequent extreme weather conditions, with spring droughts followed by summer floods, have further exacerbated the scarcity of food. Russia, on the other hand, is rich in food resources, and North Korea's decision to send troops to participate in the war may be a strategy to exchange military forces for food aid. For Russia, after the conflict with Ukraine, the West imposed comprehensive sanctions on Russia, making it the country with the most sanctions imposed on it. Under the prolonged war, Russia is facing a shortage of manpower and strategic resources, despite its current advantage on the battlefield. The decline in "war potential" will affect its long-term combat capability. At the same time, Ukraine's counterattacks with NATO have increased its pressure. In contrast, North Korea maintains a standing army of over a million and is in a state of high combat readiness. If North Korean soldiers join the conflict, it will undoubtedly strengthen the Russian military's combat power. The cooperation between North Korea and Russia can bring benefits to both sides; North Korea gains food, while Russia gains military support, creating a win-win situation.

Uninvolved in the War: Insufficient Evidence, High Speculation. Although evidence from South Korea and Ukraine is seen as key clues pointing to the possibility of North Korea's involvement in the war, these pieces of evidence at most only indicate that some North Korean military personnel are present in Russia, wearing Russian military uniforms and equipment. However, whether these soldiers belong to the so-called "Storm Corps" special forces and whether their true purpose in going to Russia is to go to the front line cannot be conclusively determined based solely on existing video or image materials. The video released by Ukraine shows individuals speaking Korean, suspected to be North Korean soldiers, receiving Russian military equipment. North Korea could very well offer an alternative explanation that these soldiers are in Russia to receive the latest military training. More importantly, North Korea's motivation for sending troops to fight at this time is not as strong as outside speculation suggests. If North Korea rashly sends troops to support Russia, it is highly likely to provide NATO countries with a "reasonable" excuse to support Ukraine, a risk that North Korea and Russia, even in their most constrained circumstances, cannot afford. As for the claim that North Korea is sending troops to Russia based on the "Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between North Korea and Russia," this also does not hold water. After all, President Putin only submitted the legal draft for the approval of the treaty to the Russian State Duma on the 25th, and the treaty has not yet taken effect. This incident is highly likely a joint speculation by Ukraine and South Korea. Ukraine, by exaggerating the threat from North Korea and Russia, seeks to gain more international support; while South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol can use this opportunity to divert public attention from government scandals and ineffective governance, shifting the focus to security issues.

Although it remains uncertain whether North Korea has truly deployed troops to the conflict, the tense situation in Northeast Asia is an undeniable reality. How the situation will evolve in the future remains to be seen.