International Observation | Ishiba's Miscalculation and Failure

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, when he confidently announced the dissolution of the House of Representatives and the early holding of a general election several days ago, probably did not anticipate that this gamble, which was widely expected to be a sure win, would end in such a devastating loss. In the recent House of Representatives election, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which he leads, suffered its first loss of a majority in the House of Representatives since its return to power, failing to secure a majority on its own and even falling short when combined with its coalition partner, the Komeito Party.

Analysts point out that Ishiba, who set the goal of winning a majority of seats for the ruling party, suffered a significant defeat. This was due to his and the LDP leadership's miscalculation in ignoring shifts in public opinion, as well as the electoral system amplifying dissatisfaction with public sentiment. The future of Japanese politics will enter a period of turmoil. Even if Ishiba manages to avoid being ousted, his path to governance will not be smooth.

Dissolution too hastily

Ishiba won the LDP presidential election on the day of the month and was elected Prime Minister of Japan on the day of the month. During the LDP presidential election, he stated that the LDP had not gained the understanding of voters on the issue of "politics and money," and it was the responsibility of the LDP president to explain to the public that the timing of dissolving the House of Representatives should not be arbitrarily decided based on the LDP's own interests.

Due to Ishiba's previous distancing from the major factions within the party implicated in the "black gold" scandal and his frequent criticism of the scandal, his remarks were widely interpreted as an indication that he would not immediately dissolve the House of Representatives upon taking office, but instead would take time to address the "black gold" scandal. However, before officially becoming prime minister, Ishiba announced on a certain date that he would dissolve the House of Representatives on a specific date after taking office and hold a general election on another date, setting a record as the fastest dissolution of the House of Representatives by a prime minister after World War II.

The disruptive shift left public opinion in shock and prompted widespread skepticism. Opposition parties openly accused Ishiba of breaking his word, criticizing him for planning to dissolve the House of Representatives, a power exclusive to the Prime Minister, even before taking office. Ishiba was in a hurry to dissolve the House of Representatives and call for a general election to capitalize on the high approval ratings brought by the "freshness" of the new Prime Minister, aiming to win the election and then govern smoothly under the guise of "mandate of the people." His predecessor, Kishida Fumio, had successfully used this method. However, Ishiba clearly did not anticipate that the significant shift in his stance before and after taking office would provoke public dissatisfaction.

Professor Hanako Omura of Kyoto University stated that Ishiba's swift announcement to dissolve the House of Representatives misjudged the stance of independent voters. About 60-70% of Japanese voters do not belong to any political party, and they are more likely to change their stance due to dissatisfaction with the status quo. Exit polls from The Asahi Shimbun showed that only % of independent voters chose to support the Liberal Democratic Party, lower than the % in the previous general election.

amplified dissatisfaction

In addition to dissolving the House of Representatives too hastily, Ishiba's handling of the "black gold" scandal has also left voters dissatisfied. He not only failed to provide the opposition parties with sufficient questioning time in the National Diet, but also adopted an ambiguous attitude towards the implicated lawmakers. On one hand, he reduced support for their candidacies under public pressure, while on the other hand, he allocated tens of thousands of yen to their branches as "party strength expansion activity funds." This move has been widely criticized by public opinion, and even led to the popular phrase "please give me tens of thousands too" on social media.

When Ishiba first took office, his cabinet's approval ratings exceeded % in multiple public opinion polls. However, just over two weeks later, a survey released by Jiji Press on the same day showed that Ishiba's cabinet approval rating had dropped to %, the lowest level among all cabinets since , falling into the "dangerous waters" below %. Nevertheless, this approval rating was still higher than that of other political parties, which was less than %.

Analysts point out that the reversal in the results of this House of Representatives election is closely related to Japan's electoral system. Japan's House of Representatives election adopts a combination of single-member districts and proportional representation systems. In the single-member district system, each district elects only one member of parliament, with the candidate receiving the most votes being elected. The proportional representation system involves voters choosing a political party, which then allocates seats in proportion to the votes received. Among the seats in the House of Representatives, the number of single-member district seats is , accounting for over %. Under an electoral system dominated by the single-member district system, changes in support rates can easily be magnified. In the past, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) could achieve overwhelming victories with just over % support, which is related to this. In this election, the decline in the LDP's party support rate was not particularly significant, but the defection of a small portion of supporters could lead to a significant change in the number of seats. Ishiba's miscalculation in hastily dissolving the House of Representatives was magnified by the electoral system, leading to failure.

Unforeseeable prospects for governance

From the perspective of post-election seats, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) holds the majority, remaining the largest party in the House of Representatives; the ruling coalition collectively holds seats, still short of a majority. Analysts believe that in the future, apart from wooing some independent members, Ishiba is likely to target the Japan Innovation Party, which holds seats, and the Democratic Party for the People, which holds seats, as key targets for alliance. However, both of the above-mentioned parties currently deny the possibility of joining the ruling coalition. If Ishiba fails to find coalition partners, the scenario of multiple opposition parties uniting to overthrow the LDP's regime in the s could be repeated.

However, the favorable conditions for Ishiba and the Liberal Democratic Party at present are that the opposition parties are not united. The combined seats of the opposition parties and independent members only amount to a few, and to form a political coalition with a majority of seats, at least the Japan Innovation Party and the Democratic Party of Japan, both of which have a significant number of seats, need to join. The secretary-general of the Japan Innovation Party, Fumio Fujita, has clearly stated that the party will not actively propose joining the ruling coalition, and it is difficult to form an alliance with the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, due to differing policy philosophies.

According to the Japanese Constitution, a special Diet session should be convened within a few days after the general election to elect a new prime minister. During this period, the alliances and rivalries among political forces will determine whether Ishiba can continue to govern or become the shortest-serving prime minister in post-war Japan. Even if Ishiba manages to avoid being ousted, his future path to governance will not be smooth: either his government will become a minority government, or the ruling coalition will include a new party, creating more constraints for him. Additionally, the defeat in this general election may prompt the Liberal Democratic Party to demand accountability for the failure and to replace the new president in preparation for next year's House of Councillors election, putting Ishiba under pressure within the party.