"Harris is like a marionette, with about (manipulators) making decisions, and I probably know most of them." On the 10th, Elon Musk, a well-known American entrepreneur, made this public revelation during an interview with Fox TV host and media mogul Carlson.

Puppet, also known as marionette. Musk's "marionette theory" regarding the Democratic presidential candidate in the United States reveals the "performance era" characteristics of the current American electoral politics. Even the extremely powerful Republican, Trump, has to be manipulated and constrained by the forces behind him.

For a long time, in American electoral politics, there has been a social force with significant political bargaining power, and the corresponding organizations and key figures have always been the targets of competition between both major parties in presidential elections. Reporters from the Global magazine summarized these forces into five categories: "wealth, commerce, labor, intellect, and religion," namely, the financial sector represented by Wall Street, the business and industrial sector, the labor sector represented by several major labor organizations, the intellectual sector including think tanks, media, and scholars, and the religious sector.

Additionally, there are intricate invisible forces such as the so-called "deep state." In every major election, both parties focus heavily on these forces, conducting deep social mobilization and engaging in fierce competition. Simultaneously, these forces also engage in transactions with candidates to fulfill their own interests, thereby influencing the future policy direction of the United States.

Elon Musk photo Xinhua/AFP

1

Consortium World: "Fat Cats" Hedge Their Bets

As is well known, one of the major pillars of American power is its financial industry, with the key figures in its important financial institutions being referred to as the "fat cats" of Wall Street. There is a view that Wall Street has traditionally been a significant voting base for the Democratic Party. However, according to the logic of capital, ultimately, Wall Street capitalists bet on the political victors.

According to the latest data from the Federal Reserve, as of the specified date, the total number of large U.S. banks (with total assets exceeding $100 billion) is 19, with combined assets amounting to $20.8 trillion. There are 4 ultra-large banks with assets exceeding $250 billion (banks requiring systemic risk regulation), down from 5 as of the end of March 2022. Among them, 4 banks with assets exceeding $1 trillion are considered "too big to fail" (with combined assets of approximately $12.5 trillion). The top four banks (JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citibank) have total assets close to $12.5 trillion, an increase of 10.3% year-on-year. JPMorgan Chase alone has total assets of $3.7 trillion, roughly equivalent to India's GDP in 2021.

In recent years, the macro policies of the U.S. government have been favorable for large Wall Street banks. According to public data, the average stock price of the six major investment banks on Wall Street (JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citibank, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley) has increased by % annually, with JPMorgan Chase's stock price rising by %, becoming the biggest winner.

Jamie Dimon, the Wall Street mogul known as the "shadow president" of the American financial world and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said in an interview with CNBC at the World Economic Forum in Davos this year that "Trump is right on some key issues." This statement was interpreted as a cautious endorsement of Trump. During the presidential election in 2020, Dimon had explicitly stated that Trump would not be re-elected.

Analysts believe that Trump, born and raised in New York, has close ties with financial capital. During his presidency, he sought to win over Wall Street with policies such as easing regulations on the financial industry and reducing taxes. Public statements this year indicate that Trump's stance towards Wall Street has not significantly changed; he has repeatedly stated that he would continue to reduce taxes for the wealthy.

The Democratic Party has historically relied on Wall Street support. The Biden administration has continued the Trump administration's more lenient financial regulatory policies compared to the previous administration. Over the past three to four years, the U.S. financial industry has continued to thrive, with the total assets of several major banks under the supervision of the Federal Reserve growing by approximately %. From January 1, 2020, to January 1, 2021, on the Wall Street stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose from 28,256 points to 30,606 points, with a cumulative increase of about %, and the increase since the beginning of this year has been close to %.

In Chicago, USA, Harris delivered a speech at the Democratic National Convention. Photo by Wu Xiaoling/This Issue

2

Business Community: Divided yet Pragmatic

In the American business community, several key forces that significantly influence the presidential election agenda include the tech industry in Silicon Valley, the energy sector, and the military industrial complex. Some analyses suggest that Trump's most notable supporters this time are not the "angry blue-collar workers," but the most successful wealthy individuals and Silicon Valley elites in the United States.

In this month, US President Biden called for a 2% wealth tax on individuals with assets exceeding $100 million in his State of the Union address. He also proposed raising the corporate income tax rate from 21% to 28% and reducing the Trump-era tax cuts for the wealthy, accusing these tax cuts for the rich of causing the federal debt to balloon. Analysts believe that the Democratic Party's policy orientation of increasing taxes on the wealthy is not conducive to its relationship with the business community.

For the tech industry, Trump has been highly attentive since his election as president, employing a combination of favors and pressures. During his tenure, he convened multiple meetings with tech giants, seeking their support for government work. On the other hand, he also initiated several antitrust actions against some major tech companies.

Many of America's tech giants are located in California, which is considered a stronghold of the Democratic Party, and Silicon Valley is known as a "fortress of liberalism." However, today, many tech elites are open to Trump.

The most influential figure in the U.S. tech industry regarding this election is undoubtedly "superhuman" Elon Musk. Earlier this year, Musk publicly stated, "I am very clear that I will not donate to either of the two presidential candidates." However, by the month, Musk began to take a stance, actively participating in Trump's election rallies and proposing an unprecedented "vote-pulling" campaign in swing states with a public bounty. Some comments believe this is a blatant form of bribing voters, but under current U.S. laws, it seems difficult to convict him. To some extent, Musk alone represents a powerful force behind the scenes.

In the energy sector, according to an article in Time magazine this month, Trump will continue to support traditional fossil energy industries, with oil and gas sectors continuing to serve as his voter base. In contrast, Biden's efforts to support the new energy sector currently lack the strength to compete with traditional energy industries in the United States.

In the military industry, during Trump's tenure, no wars were initiated, whereas the Democratic administration is currently involved in the Russia-Ukraine and Middle East conflicts, stimulating the U.S. war economy, with military industrial orders in high demand. This, on the other hand, indicates that the influence of the military industry on this election has diminished. Regardless of who comes into power, it will not affect the opportunities for profit in the near future.

3

Labor Sector: Political Bargaining Power Has Decreased

The COVID-19 pandemic and inflation factors have temporarily bolstered the political bargaining power of labor organizations in the United States. Both the incumbent Democratic Party and the challenger Republican Party are vying for the support of major unions and other labor organizations.

In the fall of the year, American unions held a fierce strike lasting for days, causing significant pressure on the Biden administration. On the day of the month, Biden arrived in Michigan to attend the strike organized by the United Auto Workers (UAW), visiting the UAW; on the day of the month, Senator Bernie Sanders issued a statement saying that it was the first time in American history that a president had appeared on a strike picket line.

In this month, Biden delivered a State of the Union address in Congress, mentioning Chairman Sean Feen. This is seen as a signal from the Democratic administration to the American labor sector to pay attention to their interests.

In September, Boeing and the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) held a strike involving 20,000 workers. This was the first large-scale labor-management conflict at Boeing in recent years. On October 10th, tens of thousands of workers at multiple ports on the East Coast and Gulf Coast of the United States went on strike, demanding pay raises and opposing the automation of port machinery and equipment.

Labor is a key voter group for the Democratic Party in the United States. As the U.S. presidential election draws near, the White House, while having the power to prevent strikes and avoid greater economic losses, has been cautious about intervening. The New York Times reported that two years ago, Biden angered union activists by invoking the law to stop a railroad workers' strike, leading to a more conservative approach to intervening in strike issues this time.

It is noteworthy that both the Democratic and Republican parties have attempted to shift the blame for the challenges faced by American workers onto China, in an effort to divert pressure. For instance, the Democratic administration this year increased tariffs on imports from China for electric vehicles, lithium batteries, photovoltaic cells, critical minerals, semiconductors, steel and aluminum, port cranes, personal protective equipment, and implemented trade protection measures against China's shipbuilding industry.

Trump expressed a more aggressive trade policy towards China compared to the Democratic administration. According to a report on the Fortune magazine website in the U.S., he said in a public speech in this year's month that if he wins the election, he will impose tariffs of % or even higher on all Chinese goods.

4

Intellectual Circles: Clear Tendencies but Diminishing Influence

The media, think tanks, academia, and entertainment industry are also significant forces influencing the US presidential election. Statistics show that groups with higher education levels, especially liberal intellectuals, generally dislike Trump, viewing him as a representative of "anti-intellectualism."

In the mainstream traditional media of the United States, apart from Fox News, which is a staunch supporter of Trump, most media outlets and journalists tend to oppose Trump.

The American intellectual community, especially in the field of liberal arts within universities, almost unanimously supports the Democratic Party. According to a study released by the American Scholars Group in a certain month, a survey of political party inclinations among 1,000 professors from 100 community colleges across 50 states showed a ratio of support for the Democratic Party to the Republican Party of 9:1, indicating that at the community college level, the Democratic Party is more popular.

According to a recent survey conducted by Professor Michelle Lambert of the New York University School of Business, among the full-time professors with doctoral degrees in the humanities and social sciences departments of top American universities, the overwhelming majority lean towards supporting the Democratic Party, with a ratio of Democrats to Republicans being .; in about half of the surveyed universities, this figure for Republicans is even zero.

However, despite their "big mouths," the so-called mainstream media and the liberal intellectual community, due to their small numbers, have seen their political influence wane in one-person-one-vote elections, especially in the context of the rise of new media.

Taylor Swift performed during the opening show at the Billboard Music Awards ceremony held in Las Vegas, USA. Xinhua/Reuters

In the entertainment industry, on a certain date, American renowned singer Taylor Swift's endorsement of Harris sparked significant enthusiasm among young people and women for the election, drawing mockery from Elon Musk, who supports Trump. The social media debate between Musk and Swift was even interpreted as the "decisive battle" of this presidential election.

Most think tanks in the United States are controlled by both major parties and become tools for election campaigns at specific times. In a month, a book titled "The Achievements of Kamala Harris" topped Amazon's bestseller list. The content of the book was basically blank, intended to mock Harris' lack of accomplishments. Almost simultaneously, veteran American journalist Bob Woodward revealed in his new book "The War" that since leaving the White House in January, Trump has maintained close contact with Russian President Putin, even having conversations with him 20 times. Some comments suggest that this book has sparked public concern about Trump's "Russian collusion."

In the fields of streaming media, new media, and social media, Americans' political inclinations vary widely. According to statistics, young Americans spend an average of more than an hour daily on social media; some politicians in the U.S. are fiercely suppressing platforms that have 220 million American users, making social media a new battleground for both major parties in elections. In January of this year, Trump expressed opposition to stifling these platforms, a stance influenced by capital forces and indicative of his intention to appeal to ordinary voters.

5

Religious Sector: Evangelical Christianity Aims to Reshape American Values

Trump won the US presidential election, with significant support from evangelical Christians. In this year's presidential election, evangelicals continued to endorse Trump.

On a certain date, Trump delivered a speech titled "Putting Faith and Family Back at the Center of American Life" at the International Christian Media Convention. He emphasized that the United States is being destroyed by a radical left-wing political class that has become inclined towards communism, Marxism, and even fascism. A senior expert on religious issues in the United States pointed out that the "communists and Marxists" Trump referred to do not refer to China, but rather condemn so-called "white leftists" like Senator Sanders in the United States, who believe in classical socialist and communist values.

The expert stated that evangelical Christians claim to represent the core essence of the American spirit. They believe that the Democratic Party has collapsed in terms of values, while the Republican Party led by Trump is more capable of helping them "take back" the country. Trump believes that the reason for the social division in America is the loss of Christian values. Without Christian values, the American system would completely collapse. The decline of America is the collapse of its moral and spiritual pillars. With the changes in immigration and population structure, the collapse of Christian principles will render America unable to assimilate new immigrants.

The United States has long been a highly religious country. However, according to a Gallup poll released in January, only 47% of Americans say they are members of a church or other religious institution. This is the first time since Gallup began tracking this data more than 20 years ago that the percentage has fallen below 50%. But other surveys show that nearly three-quarters of Americans still believe in God or a higher power. Only about 3% of Americans identify as atheists.

In the year, it was widely believed that around % of American white evangelical voters supported Trump. Data from the Public Religion Research Institute shows that the proportion of white evangelicals in the U.S. population has decreased from % in 2016 to % in 2020. Moreover, the institute's research also indicates that among all identifiable American religious groups, white evangelicals are the most aged. As their influence wanes, it may exacerbate the anxiety of corresponding important political demographics.

The interviewed experts believe that Trump's goal of rebuilding American faith is difficult to achieve. However, gaining renewed support from evangelical Christians remains crucial for his campaign. Li Cheng, Director of the Center for Contemporary China and World Studies at the University of Hong Kong, expressed concern that a "civil war" could erupt during this year's U.S. presidential election. He fears that due to intense conflicts in values, both sides may refuse to recognize the election results after the vote, leading to unimaginable violent conflicts within the United States.

6

"Deep State": Dark Energy Continues to Gather

"Deep State" is a special political force in the United States, used to describe political forces that exert significant influence behind the scenes. The international relations academic community believes that during the Cold War, the United States formed a comprehensive force involving diplomacy, military, economy, intelligence, and other aspects to counter the Soviet Union. After the end of the Cold War, this force sought justification for its existence by continuously creating external enemies, forming a powerful invisible power complex.

During and after the presidential election and throughout his tenure, Trump vowed to drain the swamp in Washington, referring to the so-called "deep state." He repeatedly stated that the "deep state" was a major enemy of American politics, and he was determined to fight against it. Ironically, in this year's election campaign, Trump's attitude towards the "deep state" has undergone a significant shift. In public statements, Trump no longer targets this "dark force." Some analyses suggest that this indicates Trump has made a deal with the "deep state" to some extent. American political scientist John Mearsheimer, who recently participated in academic exchanges in Beijing, publicly stated that the ultimate winner of this U.S. election will be the "deep state," a decision made in the interest of the nation.

When considering the various invisible forces behind the US presidential election, it is clear that evangelical Christians explicitly support Trump; mainstream media and the majority of the liberal intellectual community oppose Trump; other forces have not made clear choices but are hedging their bets on both sides. Through the multifaceted lens of these invisible forces, the hypocrisy and complexity of American democracy are reflected from different angles. As of now, while the outcome of the US election is certainly worth paying attention to, "Mearsheimer's prophecy" is even more worthy of deep contemplation.

END

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Source: Global Magazine, Issue Editor: Hu Yanfen

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