On the date, the price of a 2021 Feitian Maotai original case was reported at RMB 2,800 per bottle, a decrease of RMB 100 per bottle from the previous day; the price of a 2021 Feitian Maotai loose bottle was reported at RMB 2,500 per bottle, also down RMB 100 per bottle from the previous day. In just the month of the date, they have already fallen by RMB 300 per bottle and RMB 200 per bottle respectively. At this rate, will it be possible to get a bottle of Feitian Maotai for RMB 2,000 around New Year's Day?

In the eyes of Moutai dealers, the price trend of Moutai is not very optimistic and there is further room for decline. On one hand, it is greatly affected by the downward pressure on the economy, and on the other hand, the company will release more stock in the fourth quarter. As for how low the price of Moutai will drop, it is hard to predict. However, some netizens believe that the price reduction of Moutai was expected and is a sign of the market gradually returning to rationality. Fewer consumers are rushing to buy Moutai for collection and appreciation.

It is noteworthy that in this month, the price of bulk Feitian Maotai dropped to around RMB 2,700 per bottle. Guizhou Maotai quickly initiated measures to stabilize prices by canceling the bulk release of 6-bottle cases of Feitian Maotai and suspending the delivery of aged Maotai and premium Maotai. This led to a short-term halt in the decline and a subsequent recovery in Maotai prices, but it failed to reverse the overall downward trend.

End market prices have declined, and the performance growth of Kweichow Moutai has also slowed down. Financial reports show that in the first three quarters of this year, Kweichow Moutai achieved revenue of . billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of .%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was . billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of .%. In the first three quarters of last year, the revenue and net profit growth rates of Kweichow Moutai were .% and .%, respectively.

Everbright Securities analysis indicates that demand remained relatively weak in the third quarter, with channel feedback showing a decline in sales during the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays compared to the previous year, and some regions seeing an improvement in National Day performance compared to Mid-Autumn. Inventory levels have slightly increased, and the growth rate in the third quarter's financial statements may have slowed down compared to the previous quarter. However, many analysis institutions believe that Kweichow Moutai's third-quarter report is in line with expectations. Compared to Kweichow Moutai's earlier target of achieving around % year-on-year revenue growth for the year, the performance remains quite stable.

China Merchants Securities believes that the company proactively adjusted its investment structure during the third quarter when industry demand weakened, maintaining growth resilience and meeting market expectations. In a research report, China Post Securities stated that facing current market pressures, Kweichow Moutai introduced subsidy support policies for its series liquor products in the month. It is expected that the company's annual revenue growth target of % has the resilience to be achieved. At this point in time, economic stimulus policies are being rolled out one after another, and we await an improvement in demand next year.

Minsheng Securities points out that Kweichow Moutai possesses a strong brand moat and robust channel risk resistance. Against the backdrop of the current industry accelerating its clean-up, the company uses policy space to buy time. The supply side has numerous and sufficiently operational tools for adjusting the total volume, structure, and price, enabling it to achieve balanced, long-term, and steady development through proactive counter-cyclical adjustments.