2024.11.03

“超级周”即将来袭，从11月4日_{8日，市场将陆续迎来美国大选结果（预计为北京时间11月6日）、美联储议息决议（北京时间11月8日凌晨3点），以及中国十四届全国人大常委会第十二次会议（11月4日}8日）可能对财政刺激政策相关细节进行审议。

The outcome of the U.S. presidential election will directly impact the global asset trends. Currently, asset prices show a tendency to anticipate a victory for Republican candidate Trump. Among various risk indicators, the volatility in the foreign exchange market is the greatest. The yen, Brazilian real, and Chilean peso have all experienced declines of over % against the U.S. dollar in monthly terms. In contrast, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meetings have become insignificant. The unexpectedly weak non-farm payroll data released last Friday (month day) did not weaken the dollar; instead, the U.S. dollar index rose by .% on the day, stabilizing above the major threshold. The expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by basis points (bps) at each of its meetings in November and December seems to be a done deal.

For global investors, the details of China's stimulus policies have been the theme over the past one and a half months, directly impacting global economic growth and whether overseas investors will further increase their underweight positions in China's stock market. A trading desk person from a foreign investment bank told reporters that in the past week, long-term funds on the Hong Kong trading desk have shifted back to selling, while hedge funds have turned to buying, contributing to more than half of the trading volume. The trading has been concentrated in the banking and industrial sectors, but the trading volume has been light. It is expected that this light trading and low risk appetite will continue until important macro events are announced.

金融市场备战美国大选结果
过去一周，美国大选已成为金融市场每天讨论的主题，在大选日11月5日临近的最后一周，特朗普和民主党候选人哈里斯的支持率更出现了明显变化，从9~10月一边倒向哈里斯使其领先几个百分点，至最新民调显示二人支持率几近平分，越来越多民调甚至金融机构都认为，特朗普的支持率将反超哈里斯。在美国大选前的最后几天，不同金融资产价格及其风险指标表现出不同程度的压力。大多数对风险的预先布局似乎集中在外汇市场，而股票和贵金属则相对平静。

Standard Chartered's Global Chief Strategist, Robertson (), told reporters that the implied volatility of the S&P is at %, close to the upper end of the annual range (excluding the Bank of Japan shock in March), but has not yet caused significant concern. The volatility curve shows an inverted shape, indicating that investors are paying a premium for short-term protection tools. Gold volatility has increased over the past month but still does not show signs of stress or panic. Volatility in the foreign exchange market has surged, especially in the volatility of short-term options expiring. For example, the month implied volatility of USD/CNY and USD/MXN has nearly doubled since March, while the US Dollar Index has risen by about .% during this period. The US Dollar Index has risen almost in tandem with volatility, reflecting Trump's rising support in polls and betting markets.

Trump's victory could support the dollar, and for the dollar and the foreign exchange volatility market, Harris winning would be an unexpected scenario. But even if Trump wins and the Congress is divided, it may not be enough to maintain the current level of volatility, Robertson said. In November, among the major currencies in the Asian market, 10 out of 11 recorded declines, with the most significant drops seen in the currencies of Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand. Due to the dovish stance of Japan's monetary policy and political turmoil in Japan, the yen recorded a decline of 5.3% within a month. Additionally, among emerging market currencies, Latin American currencies also weakened significantly, with the Brazilian real and Chilean peso both falling by more than 5%.

FXT Chief Chinese Market Analyst Yang Aozheng told reporters that this also reflects the situation under Trump's influence, where if tariffs are further increased, the implementation of protectionism in the United States, and the continuous repatriation of American businesses and capital, would be detrimental to the economic development and capital flow in Latin America.

美联储降息沦为配角
紧随大选而来的美联储降息和刚出炉的糟糕的非农就业数据，似乎都没能引起市场的兴趣，毕竟大选才是最关键的主线，并将反过来影响美联储的决策。这从近期不断飙升的美国国债收益率就可见一斑，10年期美债收益率突破4.3%，各界预计共和党执政下的赤字率将进一步扩张，并有利于美国经济。

Many of Trump's proposed tax cuts are beneficial for stimulating U.S. economic growth. With inflation and economic growth further stimulated, the Federal Reserve would need to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts. Consequently, when Trump's approval rating increases, the U.S. dollar shows extreme strength. Trump's tariff measures will also lead to the repatriation of U.S. businesses and capital, according to Yang Aozheng. Data on the day showed that U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 136,000 in September, significantly below expectations (around 145,000), reflecting the drag from strikes and hurricanes. Employment in climate-sensitive industries decreased by 12,000 (averaging an increase of 29,000 over the previous three months), with 1.3 million people reporting in the household survey that they were unable to work due to weather, marking the lowest response rate for the employment survey since its first release in January 2010. Employment growth for August and September was revised down by 43,000, reflecting adjustments for seasonal factors. The unemployment rate remained at 3.5%, reflecting declines in household employment and labor force participation; average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% month-over-month, exceeding expectations, with an annual growth rate of 2.9%. This also caused the U.S. dollar index to rise instead of fall.

Goldman Sachs continues to expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at both the September and November meetings, in line with previous expectations.

中国财政刺激细节吸引全球关注
近期港股、A股和中概股亦陷入震荡盘整。记者发现，在众多国际投行的客户会和报告中，除了谈论美国大选，中国全国人大常委会会议可能对财政刺激政策细节进行审议已成为第二热议的话题。交易员认为，尽管此前有对冲基金资金出现获利了结，但若政策超出预期，不排除会有更多先前止盈的资金回流。

Goldman Sachs' macroeconomic team expects an announcement during the afternoon Asian session. The current expectations for fiscal policy details are as follows: a multi-annual fiscal plan worth trillions to tens of trillions of yuan will be introduced for debt swap and real estate destocking; a special sovereign bond worth trillions of yuan will be issued to inject capital into large banks; the issuance of annual treasury bonds and local government bonds will be advanced to this year, as the majority of this year's quota has already been issued in the month; additionally, the Central Economic Work Conference in the month will discuss next year's growth target and fiscal budget, with specific figures to be officially announced during the "Two Sessions" next year. It is expected that policymakers will raise the official fiscal deficit target from .% in the year to .% in the year, and set a trillion yuan quota for local government special bonds next year. If the likelihood of tariff increases rises after the US election, fiscal expansion could exceed expectations.

Nomura believes that the overall scale of the fiscal stimulus package (calculated solely on new borrowing) could reach between % and % over the next few years. Under a Trump victory, the plan might be closer to %; while under a Harris victory, it might be closer to %.

Zhao Wenli, Chief Hong Kong Strategy Analyst at CCB International, told reporters that if Harris wins, China's capital market will return to the fundamentals of data, with the differentiation between value stocks and growth stocks becoming less pronounced, but small and mid-cap stocks may outperform large-cap stocks on a temporary basis. The information of Harris's election implies a slight stabilization in U.S. inflation expectations, a more stable dollar, and a potential decline in U.S. Treasury yields. The institution's macro team expects that with a slight cooling of the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, interest rates are likely to slightly decline.