The RMB suddenly surged significantly! Is the reason across the Pacific?
In the early morning, the RMB exchange rate saw a significant increase, with the offshore RMB breaking through the . mark against the US dollar, rising more than basis points. This is the first time since , with the intraday maximum increase approaching points. Meanwhile, the onshore RMB also showed strong performance against the US dollar, with an intraday increase close to points.
The RMB appreciated, while the US dollar index suffered a severe decline. Data shows that the US dollar index has currently dropped by .%, marking its largest decline in nearly six weeks, and it has also fallen against major currencies such as the yen and the Australian dollar.
Senior investment analyst Lin Dahui analyzed in an interview with the International Business Daily that the sudden significant appreciation of the RMB exchange rate is mainly due to two reasons. Firstly, it is influenced by the U.S. election. The latest polls and voting data show that Harris's prospects are looking up, greatly increasing the uncertainty of the U.S. election. "Trump once proposed to impose heavy tariffs on Chinese goods. With the change in the election situation, the RMB exchange rate has appreciated." It is understood that after Harris narrowly led Trump by % to % in the overall vote, a certain degree of reversal occurred in the "Trump trade," and assets that had previously risen generally experienced sharp declines.
The Fed's interest rate meeting scheduled for the date will also have a positive outlook. Lin Dahui said that these are all favorable factors for the RMB exchange rate. The market generally expects that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on the date, local time. Previously, the latest employment data showed that U.S. job growth was the slowest since 2017, but the unemployment rate remains low.
Another analysis points out that, from internal factors, the continuous introduction of favorable domestic policies, the sound performance of the economic fundamentals, and the stability of the RMB exchange rate have received significant support. In the medium to long term, the RMB exchange rate has a solid foundation for maintaining basic stability. China's export situation is stable and improving, continuing to play a fundamental role in stabilizing cross-border capital flows. At the same time, with the introduction of a package of unexpected policies in the monetary, real estate, and capital markets, market confidence has been significantly boosted, and international investors are accelerating their deployment of Chinese assets.
The recent series of policy packages introduced by financial authorities have effectively and precisely supported the real economy, further consolidating and enhancing the stable recovery of China's economy. These measures provide strong support for the stability of foreign exchange reserves and contribute to the continued smooth operation of the foreign exchange market.