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The domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open at the designated time. According to comprehensive institutional views, the retail price of refined oil may experience its ninth decline this year.

Zhuo Chuang Information refined oil analyst Meng Peng told International Business Daily that at the beginning of this pricing cycle, although the situation in the Middle East remained volatile, the oil infrastructure was relatively intact, and the supply of Middle Eastern oil was relatively stable, leading to a downward trend in crude oil prices and a deepening of the change rate within the negative range. Later, due to unexpected declines in U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories, an improvement in China's manufacturing index, and the postponement of the production increase plan again, international oil prices rose for five consecutive days. However, due to the sustained low levels of crude oil earlier, the subsequent rise was unable to reverse the trend of the change rate. Therefore, the domestic reference crude oil change rate continued to fluctuate within the negative range, and today, the domestic refined oil retail price limit may be adjusted downward.

Longzhong Information analysis suggests that, from the supply side, the extension of the 1 million barrels per day production cut by another month until the end of the month, along with ongoing compensatory production cuts from multiple oil-producing countries, is in place. From the demand side, major institutions still hold a bearish outlook on global demand prospects, but there are signs of improvement in parts of Asia, and market sentiment is more stable compared to earlier periods. Additionally, the Federal Reserve will continue to advance its interest rate cut operations this month, which is favorable for the economy and oil prices.

According to the data monitoring model from Zhuochuang Information, as of the close of trading on the specified date, the domestic 10th working day reference crude oil change rate was -0.41%. It is expected that the retail price limits for gasoline and diesel will be reduced by 150 yuan and 145 yuan per ton respectively, with the price per liter of #92 gasoline, #95 gasoline, and #0 diesel being reduced by 0.12 yuan, 0.13 yuan, and 0.12 yuan respectively.

After the confirmation of the current round of retail price limits for refined oil products, private car owners will save . yuan each time they fill up a tank of fuel. Taking the logistics industry as an example, for heavy trucks that run 1,000 kilometers per month with a fuel consumption of 100 kilometers, the fuel cost per vehicle will decrease by about yuan before the next price adjustment window opens, resulting in a reduction in logistics transportation costs.

Zhuochuang Information predicts that after the change of the U.S. presidency, market focus will shift to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut pace and supply-demand fundamentals. A moderate rate cut is more likely, but the global economy still faces significant challenges. The increase in U.S. oil inventories and the expectation of OPEC+ production increases continue to exert pressure. However, the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve actions and the robust demand for Chinese oil may bring benefits. Combined with geopolitical disturbances, it is expected that international oil prices will continue to show a weak trend, with prices under pressure but limited downward space. Based on current crude oil prices, the recalculated change rate will start positively, and it is expected that the retail price of refined oil will shift to an upward adjustment expectation at the beginning of the next cycle. The price adjustment window will be at a specific time on a certain date.

Text/Bi Ruolin

Editor/Sun Nan

Reviewed by Zhang Yumei

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