According to Xinhua News Agency, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump announced his victory in the 2024 presidential election in the early hours of the month. The United States is the world's largest oil producer and the largest producer and exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Trump is a staunch supporter of fossil fuels and withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement during his first term. He has strongly opposed the Biden administration's clean energy policies and promised to repeal related subsidies upon taking office. In previous campaigns, he repeatedly expressed strong support for the oil and gas industry, aiming to reduce inflation, achieve energy independence, and enhance American competitiveness.

In the long term, Trump's potential return to power could mean more lenient fossil energy policies, leaning towards accelerating the approval of domestic oil and gas projects and increasing domestic oil production, which could lead to an increase in oil supply and, to some extent, suppress oil prices. Wang Haibin, a senior economist at Sinochem Energy, told First Financial Daily, "In the short term, how the new president handles relations with other major oil-producing countries is also a focus of market attention, especially Middle East policies, such as whether there will be stricter sanctions on Iran's oil exports, which could cause sharp fluctuations in international oil prices in the short term."

Chief Analyst Yan Jiantao of Jiecheng Energy predicts that international oil prices will first rise and then fall following Trump's election. Initially, market sentiment will drive up oil prices; later, with policy support, U.S. oil production will further increase, leading to a supply-demand imbalance that will push oil prices down.

From an economic perspective, the Republican Party typically advocates for reduced government regulation of the energy industry and lower related taxes. A report from GF Futures Research Center indicates that this policy direction can directly enhance the profit margins of the oil and gas industry, allowing oil and gas companies to achieve higher economic returns in a more relaxed operating environment.

First Financial Daily reporters noticed that after the news of Trump's victory was announced, oil concept stocks in the U.S. stock market collectively strengthened before the market opened. As of Eastern Time, ExxonMobil (,) rose over %, Chevron (,) rose nearly %, and Ecopetrol (,) rose over %.

Additionally, the market is also paying close attention to the potential impact of Trump's administration on the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and whether Russian oil exports can resume. During his previous campaign, Trump repeatedly expressed his hope to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict as soon as possible. In this regard, Wang Haibin believes that considering the prospects and market share of the U.S. oil and gas industry, the probability of Russia's energy exports resuming is low, as Russia's oil exports were already subject to certain restrictions during Trump's first term; furthermore, whether Europe is willing to accept Russian energy again is also a significant influencing factor.