The Japanese Parliament held a prime minister nomination election. In the House of Representatives voting, Liberal Democratic Party President Shigeru Ishiba narrowly secured his position as prime minister after two rounds of competition, avoiding the fate of becoming the shortest-serving prime minister in post-WWII Japan.

Analysts point out that the ruling coalition consisting of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito faced the risk of being ousted after suffering a setback in the House of Representatives election earlier this year. However, due to the opposition parties' failure to form a unified force, Ishiba was able to continue in power. Nevertheless, he still faces numerous challenges on his path to governance, particularly the upcoming summer Senate election next year, which will be a crucial hurdle.

暂时涉险过关
日本宪法规定，众议院选举后30天内必须召集特别国会重新选举首相。11日上午，刚组建一个多月的石破内阁根据相关程序宣布集体辞职。同日，日本召集特别国会，并于下午进行首相指名选举。石破凭借执政党在参议院的多数优势在参议院投票中赢得首相提名。但在众议院投票中，他得票最多却未能超过半数，因此需要与得票排名第二的最大在野党立宪民主党党首野田佳彦进入第二轮角逐。第二轮投票中，石破获得221票，超过野田的160票，以相对多数赢得众议院提名，从而最终当选日本第103任首相。

Under the current Japanese Constitution, there have only been four instances where the election for the Prime Minister in the House of Representatives went into a second round of voting, with the last one occurring in the year. Ishiba had to not only face a second round of voting in the House of Representatives but also barely managed to secure a majority of votes in the second round, making it a close call.

In the House of Representatives election held on the specified date, the LDP-Komeito ruling coalition saw a significant decline in its number of seats to 239, falling short of the 240 seats required for a majority. According to relevant rules, in the Prime Minister nomination election involving both the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors, the result of the House of Representatives vote takes precedence. Therefore, theoretically, if the opposition parties can form an effective alliance in the House of Representatives, it is possible to achieve a "regime change." However, the Japan Innovation Party and the Democratic Party for the People, the second and third largest opposition parties, demanded that their members support their own candidates in both rounds of voting, resulting in Noda's votes in the House of Representatives never surpassing Ishiba's, allowing Ishiba to ultimately win.

The Yomiuri Shimbun analysis points out that despite the Constitutional Democratic Party's active efforts to rally other opposition parties, there are fundamental policy differences between it and the various parties, making it unable to lead the unity of the opposition.

仍有重重考验
石破再次当选首相后重新组建内阁，仅替换了在众议院选举中未能当选议员的法务大臣牧原秀树和农林水产大臣小里泰弘，以及因成为公明党新党首而不再出任阁僚的国土交通大臣齐藤铁夫，其余内阁成员保持不变。

The primary challenge facing the new cabinet is the formulation of new economic policies and a budget proposal. Given that the current LDP-Komeito coalition does not hold a majority in the House of Representatives, maintaining power requires cooperation with opposition parties. The LDP is currently seeking collaboration with the Democratic Party for the People and has received relatively positive responses. Both parties plan to negotiate on tax reform to form a "partial coalition" for cooperation on specific policies.

However, public opinion holds that Ishiba's future governance will still face numerous constraints from opposition parties. According to the results of negotiations among the parties, in the positions of chairpersons of the standing committees of the new House of Representatives, opposition parties occupy , and the chairperson of the Budget Committee, which leads the budget review, has been allocated to the opposition parties again after years.

Eisuke Kumano, Chief Economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute, believes that the fiscal maneuverability of the Ishiba cabinet in the future is quite limited. Koshigaya Atsushi, an honorary professor at Yamaguchi University, stated that Japanese politics will now develop under the mutual checks and balances and compromises between the ruling and opposition parties, and the fact that the opposition party holds the position of budget committee chairperson represents a significant change in Japanese politics.

In addition, the LDP's "black gold" scandal is also a significant risk. Shortly after the House of Representatives election, the LDP decided to re-incorporate into its parliamentary faction former Senate Secretary-General Hiroyuki Seki, who had been disciplined for involvement in the scandal and ran as an independent, into the LDP faction within the House of Representatives, sparking strong public discontent in Japan. Even within the LDP, there were objections to this move. Reports indicate that opposition parties currently plan to demand a re-investigation of the "black gold" scandal in the Diet, summoning relevant lawmakers to the Political Ethics Review Committee to provide explanations. Analysts believe that whether the LDP can truly escape the shadow of the "black gold" scandal and regain voter trust remains uncertain.