To resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Trump is accelerating his efforts. On [date], Trump held a phone call with Putin, breaking the three-year diplomatic deadlock between the U.S. and Russia. Shortly after, he also spoke with Zelensky to brief him on the conversation with Putin. On [date], Trump briefly outlined his recent "diplomatic achievements" on the social media platform "Truth Social," stating that both Russia and Ukraine "desire peace." Having once boasted during his campaign that he could "resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 24 hours," whether Trump can truly push Russia and Ukraine toward a ceasefire and an end to the war—these two phone calls have already revealed some hints.

Three major signals were released. The phone call between Trump and Putin lasted for minutes, primarily discussing the Russia-Ukraine issue. As a result, this conversation has been dubbed by foreign media as "the minutes that changed the course of the conflict." Based on comprehensive information from various sources, the call conveyed three major signals.

U.S.-Russia Relations Thaw. Trump first exchanged pleasantries with Putin, recalling the "great history" between the two nations and their alliance during World War II, also mentioning that they would "remember each other's losses in WWII." During the call, Putin invited Trump to visit Russia, and Trump indicated that mutual visits would occur, though plans were first made to meet in Saudi Arabia. Additionally, they discussed various topics including the Middle East, energy, artificial intelligence, and the influence of the U.S. dollar. This suggests Trump's intention to steer U.S.-Russia relations toward improvement, albeit in a phased and step-by-step manner. It is likely that under the leadership of head-of-state diplomacy, the two countries will expand areas of engagement and even restore some substantive cooperation.

Partial consensus reached. Based on comprehensive information from multiple sources, it is highly likely that Trump and Putin reached partial consensus on the Russia-Ukraine issue during this call. After the call, Trump publicly described the conversation with Putin as "productive," and Putin also expressed agreement with Trump's view on achieving a long-term resolution to the Ukraine crisis through negotiations. On the question of whether Ukraine should join NATO, the two seemed to have reached a consensus, with Trump calling such a plan "unrealistic" and stating that Ukraine is "unlikely to reclaim lost territories." This suggests that the U.S.-Russia consensus likely includes "Ukraine not joining NATO" and "establishing a ceasefire line based on current control lines." Additionally, both sides agreed to immediately form a high-level negotiation team to discuss the Russia-Ukraine issue. Trump stated that he had appointed Secretary of State Rubio, CIA Director Ratcliffe, and National Security Advisor Waltz to lead the negotiations, expressing his "strong feeling that the talks will succeed."

Differences still exist. Although the recent phone call released a series of positive signals, it was still difficult to conceal the disagreements between the U.S. and Russia. During the call, Trump emphasized that "the conflict must be stopped immediately." In contrast, Putin took a relatively tougher stance, stating that a ceasefire required "addressing the root causes of the conflict." Putin also highlighted the "long-term nature" of resolving the Russia-Ukraine issue through negotiations. These points demonstrate that despite the apparent "warmth" between the two leaders, their actual positions remain far apart.

Portraits of the Key Players: The U.S., Russia, and Ukraine. Trump's Intentions and Calculations. Recently, Trump has shown a heightened interest in the Russia-Ukraine issue, driven by his own agenda. On one hand, "ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict" is a key campaign promise for Trump and aligns closely with his "America First" doctrine. During Biden's presidency, the U.S. has poured massive resources into Ukraine. Trump clearly hopes to reduce America's resource expenditure on Ukraine by pushing for peace talks, thereby redirecting those resources to his own priority areas. To this end, he dispatched Treasury Secretary Besant to Ukraine specifically to demand that Zelensky repay the billions in aid provided by the U.S.

At the same time, in response to his bold claim of "resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict within hours," he must take concrete actions to fulfill his promise. If the conflict can be ended in a relatively short period, Trump would achieve a major diplomatic success early in his term, laying a more solid foundation for his subsequent governance.

Putin's Bottom Line and Room for Maneuver. The root of the Ukraine crisis lies in NATO's eastward expansion and the collective disregard by the U.S.-led Western world for Russia's security interests. During this call, Putin insisted on "addressing the root cause," demanding that the U.S. genuinely take Russia's security concerns seriously and leave sufficient strategic buffer space between NATO and Russia. This is Putin's core bottom line. Putin's assertiveness in the call is indeed backed by confidence. Currently, the Russian military controls about % of Ukrainian territory and appears to retain strong resilience, while Ukraine's strategic support is hanging by a thread. Putin could very well adopt a strategy of "fighting while negotiating," using military pressure to force concessions from Ukraine. Therefore, for Putin, solidifying gains through negotiations and avoiding prolonged attrition is a preferable option—though not the only one. Of course, Putin has also tactfully given Trump face. The Kremlin recently released American citizen Fogel, sending a goodwill signal to Trump. Trump specifically mentioned this incident on social media, indicating an unspoken understanding between the two.

Zelensky's Helplessness and Powerlessness. Currently, although Zelensky has expressed a "desire for peace," direct negotiations between the U.S. and Russia have weakened Ukraine's voice. It is even uncertain whether he can participate in the talks as an equal party. At this stage, it appears highly likely that the eastern Ukrainian territories will be set aside in the form of "autonomy" or a "neutral zone," while U.S. aid to Ukraine may come with stricter conditions. Even Zelensky's political future could become a topic of discussion on the U.S.-Russia negotiation table. Under these circumstances, Zelensky must consider not only resolving the conflict but also how to "secure his own existence." Yet, what options does he really have? New NATO Secretary-General Rutte meets with Zelensky.

僵局打破，黎明尚远。此次普京与特朗普通话，打破了美俄近3年的外交僵局，客观上有利于冲突的解决，最起码有利于抑制当前危机的升级态势。但俄乌冲突的复杂性也决定了，酿成危机的根源及产生的影响，绝非特朗普个人便可解决。（另见本号文章"The 'Putin-Trump Meeting' is on the horizon, how exactly does Trump intend to resolve the Russia-Ukraine issue?"）

A ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine as a phased objective is indeed a possibility. However, bridging the vast security divide between NATO and Russia requires the entire Western world and Russia to rebuild their shattered strategic trust. Historical experience shows that temporary agreements lacking balanced participation from multiple parties and solid strategic trust are unlikely to endure and may even trigger new crises and conflicts. Whether the recent call between Trump and Putin is credible or far-fetched, time will ultimately provide the answer.

The pictures in the article come from the Internet