Editor's Note· 2024.04.08

The curtain has risen on the 2024 international political landscape. According to incomplete statistics, more than 50 countries and regions around the world will stage "grand elections" this year, and the elections in major powers such as the United States and Russia are particularly nerve-racking. 2024 may become a year with the most elections in history, with the number of participants covering nearly half of the world's population, making it a veritable "Grand Election Year".

To this end, IIA's Academic Editing Group (AEG) has launched the "IIA Commented Translation" column to observe the electoral situations in world countries in 2024 and their influence on China through "one commentary, one translation". Please pay attention.

IIA interpretation

CHAPTER 01 - Indonesia Election Observation

At the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indonesian President-elect Prabowo Subianto made his first overseas visit to Beijing from March 31 to April 2 after his election as the General Chairman of the Great Indonesia Movement Party, with his inauguration scheduled for October 20 in Indonesia's new capital, Nusantara. This marks the first time for an Indonesian President-elect to visit a foreign country before being sworn into office, and Prabowo's choice of China as his first destination broke the tradition of Indonesian presidents giving priority to neighboring countries for their first overseas visits after taking office, further highlighting the significance of China to Indonesia.

How Does Indonesia’s New President Differ From His Predecessor? What Does the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Rail Project Suggest About the Future of China-Indonesia Cooperation? What Does Jokowi’s Legacy Mean for Indonesian Politics in the “Prabowo Era”? Where Is Indonesian Politics Headed? What Does Indonesia’s Relationship with China Look Like Going Forward? Editors’ Note: This edition of The Indonesia Update draws on pieces originally published by the Brookings Institution:Reflecting on Jokowi’s Legacy and Prabowo’s Impending Presidency, the article delves deep into the dynamics and implications of the election, uncovering the pivotal role President Jokowi played in shaping his successor and the complex political legacy he leaves behind. Building on this, the editorial team further observes and responds to the burning questions on the future trajectory of Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest nation.

Question 1

Differences between Indonesia's president-elect and incumbent

**A1
**

If Joko Widodo is a “people’s president” known for his clean image and popularity among the masses, Prabowo is a “chameleon-like” president. He is the son-in-law of “President Devil” Suharto and a military commander suspected of “human rights violations,” but he is also a populist leader who rolled out “free lunches” and is known as a “cute grandpa” among young voters. Prabowo’s shift toward Jokowi’s platform and governing philosophy allowed him to win the presidency on the strength of the “Jokowi effect.” It can also be said that Prabowo has become the “successor” to Jokowi’s major domestic and foreign policies, such as attracting foreign investment to develop the economy and promoting the “ASEAN centrality” doctrine.

面对当前全球地缘政治变局，普拉博沃大概率会继续“近睦远交，平衡东西，左右逢源”的中立外交立场。“一千个朋友太少，一个敌人太多”，不同的是，普拉博沃在外交和军事领域上可能会显现出更自信的姿态。而能否妥善处理和与大国的关系，考验着普拉博沃的政治智慧。作为一位曾因“人权记录”被禁止入境美国的当选总统，普拉博沃可能将要面临美国“价值观外交”的考验。 However, considering the current situation of Sino-US rivalry, as Indonesia is a crucial part of the Indo-Pacific strategy, it is possible that the US, which adheres to the principles of realpolitik, will not hesitate to "welcome" Prabowo.

Question 2

Prospects of Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway under the Belt and Road Initiative

**A2 **

于去年10月投入运作的雅万高铁被视为中国“一带一路”的指标工程，也是印尼现代化的象征。而如今，雅万高铁被预测将在运营的第一年中面临高达3.15万亿印尼盾的亏损。负责承建及营运的印尼中国高铁公司（KCIC）已经背负了巨额债务。经济学家费萨尔·巴斯里（Faisal Basri）也曾表示，雅万高铁项目在商业利益上是不可行的，短期内很难获得丰厚的投资回报。如果想要实现收支平衡，延长现有的路线兴许可为解决办法之一。但是，有限的资源难以支持印尼在爪哇岛以外的地区建设铁路。不断增加的负债也正在削弱印尼申请贷款时的议价能力。 Jokowi said that he had not set a time frame for when the KCJB would turn a profit, saying the “most important thing is for people to get the best service, not the profit or loss.”

Prabowo also barely mentioned plans to extend the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway during the election campaign. But obviously, the deficit operating problem of the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway will be something Prabowo has to face. Judging from the current situation, ** Driven by "Golden Indonesia 2045", Prabowo may be more inclined to support large-scale development projects like the new capital Nusandara to achieve economic transformation ** ; At the same time, focus on adjusting and resolving Kalimantan Island's "granary plan" and nickel ore processing issues (both areas were attacked by the two candidates 'opponents during the election period). As for whether to "save" the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway project and continue to benefit the people, Prabowo may have to make a decision after weighing many factors such as public opinion, funding sources, and long-term impact.

Question 3

The Way Forward for China-Indonesia Relations

**A3 **

In terms of China-Indonesia relations, the "Prabowo era" is expected to continue the positive development trend of the "Jokowi era" in Sino-Indonesian relations. 基建、经贸、投资等领域的互需互补，都奠定了中印尼友好关系长足发展的基调。并且，鉴于1974年中印尼断交的历史教训，后苏哈托时期的历届印尼政府总体上都比较注重维持与中国的关系，包括佐科威政府。因此， Prabowo is likely to continue the "Jokowi line" of friendly policies towards China, and consolidate pragmatic cooperation with China. 可以预见的是，在美西方国家和印尼国内反对派势力的影响下，南海问题可能会成为中印尼关系的潜在摩擦点。此次大选前，印尼加速推进了纳土纳群岛的防备与开发计划就是一大例证。宗教保守主义和极端民族主义情绪将会是不时搅动印尼政治和社会的两张“牌”，并波及与中关系的稳定性。

• 以下为布鲁金斯学会 Indonesia’s eras: Reflections on Jokowi’s legacy and Prabowo’s presidency 的译文，供读者参考。

introduction

On February 14, Valentine's Day, Indonesia held the world's largest single-day election, electing a new president, vice president, parliament and local representatives. In this so-called "democracy grand event", Indonesian voters used about 58% of the votes to express their love and support for Prabowo Subianto, the current Defense Minister and three-time presidential candidate. Prabowo will succeed Joko Widodo as president, who has served two constitutional terms.

This future president was born to a cosmopolitan elite family and his childhood and secondary education were spent in Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Switzerland, and England. After returning to Indonesia, Prabowo joined the infamous special forces (Kopassus) and married the daughter of President Suharto, which enabled his rapid rise in the military and maintained his close links to the center of power ever since.

After Suharto stepped down, Prabowo was expelled from the military in 1998 on suspicion of human rights violations. For the next two decades, he has been trying to consolidate his political position in the post-Suharto era. After failing twice in 2014 and 2019, the former general will eventually take office in October this year. **

On 14 February 2024 Prabowo gave a speech with Gibran, after quick vote counts had shown them as winners. (Image credit:Reuters

Kingmaker Jokowi

Despite the general election being over, President Joko Widodo’s work is far from finished. His deft maneuvering before, during and after the election suggests he is intent on shaping Indonesia’s political landscape, even in the final months of his decade-long rule.

The key to Jokowi’s standing and popularity 尽管受到过批评，但他在印尼国内一直备受爱戴，支持率在2023年平均约为70%-75%，最高时达到80%左右。佐科威兑现了2014年大选前的承诺，让印尼人民过上了更好的生活，这为他提供了非凡的政权合法性。其中，包括为低收入阶层改善医疗和教育服务；通过道路、港口和机场建设增强互联互通；以及简化繁文缛节的流程以便利投资。

Jokowi had floated the idea of changing the constitution to allow him to run for a third term in office or of postponing the election, but both ideas were shot down by the political establishment. 因此，他随后利用自己的声望塑造了一个他认为最有利于其政治遗产的选举结果，其中包括继续基础设施升级项目和迁移印尼首都。

Jokowi signals supporters in many ways ，告诉他们应该投票给谁。首先，由于佐科威与他的所在政党有争执，他将对一直领先民调的政党候选人、中爪哇省省长甘贾尔·普拉诺沃（Ganjar Pranowo）的默许支持，转给了他曾经的两届竞争对手普拉博沃。这削弱了甘贾尔声称自己是佐科威继承人的说法。另一位候选人、雅加达省长阿尼斯·巴斯威丹（Aies Baswedan）以改变现状为竞选纲领，但印尼民众几乎没有改变现状的欲望。

Second, Jokowi nominated his eldest son, 36-year-old Gibran Rakabuming Raka, as Prabowo's vice presidential running mate. The decision was controversial because it was made by the Constitutional Court presided over by Jokowi's brother-in-law-allowing Jibran to run without reaching the minimum age of 40. Jokowi's youngest son Kaesang Pangarep was also appointed chairman of the Indonesian Unity Party (PSI) just two days after joining the party. The Unity Party subsequently joined Prabowo's camp, although it did not receive enough votes to hold a seat in parliament.

Third, Jokowi handed out social aid during the election to encourage people to vote for his chosen successor, trading on his popularity for Prabowo’s votes. 在吉布兰被任命为普拉博沃的竞选伙伴后，佐科威亲自在离这对“完美搭档”的海报不远处分发大米。而在选举前，他的政府宣布延长现有项目或新项目，发放现金和非现金援助。印尼Tempo杂志认为，以这种方式使用纳税人的钱可以被称为是“政治腐败”。

While Prabowo had already taken a slight lead in polls going into 2023, a trend that has seemingly been further buoyed by Jokowi’s campaigning efforts and wishes to see the election wrapped up in the first round has seen his support climb to over 50% since October.

Since the election, Jokowi has shown no sign of stopping. In February, he appointed Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono, son of former President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, as Minister of Agricultural Affairs and Spatial Planning. In doing so, he brought one of the only two opposition parties into his camp, further consolidating a more cooperative parliament.

In 2019, Prabowo was invited to join Jokowi's government as defense minister. (Source:Tempo

Prabowo, the Indonesian People, and the International Community

While Jokowi theoretically bequeaths his successor a more open political environment in which to pursue their own agenda, he also leaves a legacy of “democratic regression.” 虽然部分原因是结构性问题，但佐科威的政策导致了对媒体的更严格控制、对妇女生育权和工人权利的侵蚀、对消除腐败委员会的削弱，以及军方承担更多的国内安全和非安全领域的责任。

While Prabowo will benefit from this environment, the "Coattail Effect" of Jokowi's popularity and legitimacy will only last for a limited time. With more than half of Indonesia's 204 million voters under the age of 40, the new president needs to achieve some success early, especially among young people. ** These young voters are eager to see the progress of the "Jokowi era" continue, seeking better job prospects and vocational education, more attention to environmental issues, and greater accountability and less corruption. ** One analyst believes that social media is the main source of information (and disinformation) and that young Indonesians can gain more information about political performance, thereby holding leaders accountable.

Another high agenda for Prabowo is to continue attracting foreign direct investment (FDI), especially from China, to fund major infrastructure projects; the development of the new capital city Nusantara; and the further development of Indonesia’s burgeoning nickel industry. 虽然中国在帮助印尼通过陆上镍加工向价值链上游攀升过程中发挥了关键作用，但雅加达仍需要实现投资来源多元化，以减轻对中国政府的长期依赖，并寻找绿色投资来源。这可以通过加强东盟内部的合作来实现，尤其是与新加坡或越南的合作；抑或，如果雅加达成功申请加入经济合作与发展组织（OECD），也可以与法国、日本、韩国、英国和美国等其他工业化经济体合作。

Prabowo will be under pressure to make progress on another key policy for Jokowi:"Indonesia Emas", or "Golden Indonesia 2045 Vision", aims to transform Indonesia into an industrialized economy on the centenary of the founding of the country. Similarly, the future of the archipelago country provides opportunities for investors of all types.

Due to congestion and sinking problems in Jakarta, Indonesia plans to move the capital to Kalimantan Island. The picture shows the scale model of the central government area of Nusantara, the new capital (Source: Antara News Agency)

据一位分析师称，尽管印尼国内有一种默契，即不让FDI受到腐败的影响，但保持印尼的全球投资排名最终还是对政府有利的。因此， For Prabowo, the ideal future would both safeguard the power of the oligarchy and maintain a favorable investment climate.

除贸易之外，普拉博沃领导下的印尼将继续保持不结盟状态，平衡与所有大国和新兴大国的关系。A pragmatic approach would see Prabowo maintain stable relations with both China and the US. 印尼军方一直愿意成为所有国家的安全伙伴，尤其是拥有先进能力的印太国家。因此，印太地区的安全行为体应做好准备，在现有防务合作和军事接触活动的基础上再接再厉，并鼓励印尼在人道援助方面提高东盟内部的领导能力。在这一领域，澳大利亚、日本和美国的民事机构和国防部队将可以发挥关键作用。

The company has recently expanded its operations to the United States.

Natalie Sambhi，布鲁金斯学会亚洲政策研究中心外交政策项目非常驻研究员。

This issue's translator expert

Tan Xiaojing:The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen Global Studies PhD

Huang Zilan:Assistant Researcher, International Affairs Institute, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen

*** Disclaimer:** The views expressed in this article only represent the author's own position and do not represent the position of the Greater Bay Area Review or the IIA institutions.

• This article was originally published at the Brookings Institution and was originally titled_ Indonesia's eras: Reflections on Jokowi's legacy and Prabowo's presidency _, compiled by Qin Xiaojing, edited by Huang Zilan.