2024.041

Number of words in this article:1727, reading time is about 3 minutes

introduction：3月单月的销售规模仍处在在历史较低水平。

** Author| ** First Finance Zheng Na

Coinciding with the traditional marketing season of the "Golden Third", real estate companies are actively promoting, market supply has doubled, and favorable policies have been released. The sales performance of the top 100 real estate companies has improved in the past March. Data from third-party research firm Kerui shows that in March, the top 100 real estate companies achieved sales transactions of 358.32 billion yuan, a significant increase of 92.8% from February.

Specifically, more than 80% of the top 100 real estate companies achieved month-on-month growth in performance. Data provided by Yihan think tank shows that in a full-scale perspective, among the TOP 50 real estate companies, only 7 had sales declining month-on-month in March, and most real estate companies had a month-on-month growth of more than 50%. Among them, China Shipping Real Estate, Greentown, China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, Construction Development, Yuexiu Real Estate, Huafa, etc. Sales increased by more than 100% month-on-month.

It is worth mentioning that Zhonghai Real Estate achieved full-scale sales of 41.21 billion yuan in March, ranking first among the top 100 and setting a new high in nearly a year. This is caused by the hot sales of individual projects. On March 28, Zhonghai Shunchang Jiuli, located in Shanghai's Xintiandi sector, opened for sale. Due to the price inversion of the project, it was sought after by buyers. The removal rate on that day was 98.5%, contributing 19.65 billion yuan in performance, and setting a new record for commercial housing in the country. The highest sales record at a single opening.

Even with such good results, China Overseas Property's sales still fell by 4% compared with March last year. This is already a relatively good performance among the top 100 real estate companies.

According to data from Yihan think tank, among the TOP 50 companies, only three companies achieved year-on-year growth in March, while more than half of the companies experienced year-on-year declines of more than 50%, showing a general decline. Among them, Poly Development, Vanke, China Merchants Shekou, The year-on-year decline of leading real estate companies such as Binjiang, Longhu, and Yuexiu also exceeded 40%.

From this point of view, compared with last year, this year's "Xiaoyangchun" is actually insufficient. According to Kerui data, the sales scale of the top 100 real estate companies in March was actually at a historically low level, the lowest value since 2019, with a year-on-year decline of 45.8%.

The long-term downturn in sales performance has led to a significant decline in the overall scale of real estate companies this year. 1-3 In March, the sales volume of the top 100 real estate companies fell by 47.5% year-on-year. At the same time, in a full-scale perspective, there are only 20 real estate companies with sales exceeding 10 billion yuan, which is much lower than the 40 companies in the same period in 2023 and the 47 companies in 2022.

Regarding the market trend in 2024, most real estate companies have maintained a relatively cautious attitude. Especially after the low levels of operation in the first two months, companies have slightly insufficient confidence in the market throughout the year.

Wang Quanhui, executive director and vice president of Midea Real Estate, said that it was clear at the recent company performance meeting that the market is still continuing to decline, with a decline of more than 50% in January and February, and the entire market is still in the process of continuing to bottom out.

Longhu management also said that since last year, the emergence of a series of highly leveraged companies has affected buyers 'confidence in purchasing houses and takes time to repair them. After the epidemic in 2023, the entire economy has not fully recovered to the growth rate before the epidemic, and residents 'willingness to buy houses and debt is still in the process of recovery.

Against this background, the sales targets and sales scales, which were once talked about by almost every real estate company, have gradually decreased in the past two years. In fact, when talking about sales targets for 2024 at this year's performance meeting, except for Yuexiu Property and Midea Real Estate, other listed real estate companies rarely mentioned specific sales targets, and most of them judged that they would remain at the average level in recent years. China Central Index Institute believes that this change shows that real estate companies no longer rely on "sales amount", increase contract return rates, and restore gross profit margins with high-quality projects.

From a market level, although March rebounded sharply from the trough in February, the absolute volume is still at a relatively low level. Kerui data shows that the supply of new homes in key 30 cities has doubled month-on-month and halved year-on-year, and transactions have increased by 92% month-on-month, but it is still less than the average monthly performance in the third and fourth quarters of last year; overall, the cumulative year-on-year decline in the first quarter was 52%, and the decline continued to expand by 4 percentage points.

However, the degree of repair in first-tier cities is significantly better than that in second-and third-tier cities. According to Kerui, the transaction volume of new homes in first-tier cities increased by 147% month-on-month, higher than 83% in the second and third tier cities; at the same time, the transaction volume of new homes in first-tier cities dropped by 46% year-on-year and a cumulative year-on-year decline of 44%, both lower than that in the second and third tier cities.

The industry expects that with the continuous optimization of policies on both sides of supply and demand, the total market transaction volume in April may continue to have a weak recovery trend.

In fact, since March, regulators have been continuously releasing positive signals to stabilize the market. In early March, the "Government Work Report" of the two sessions set the tone for real estate, focusing on addressing both the symptoms and root causes to resolve real estate risks, accelerating the construction of a new real estate development model, meeting residents 'rigid housing needs and diversified and improved housing needs, and clearly proposed to "optimize real estate policies"; At the same time, the regulatory authorities also emphasized that in terms of stabilizing the market, policies must be implemented according to the city, precise policies, and one policy for each city."Now that the autonomy of urban regulation has been fully given, the city government must shoulder its responsibilities."

At the local level, various actively optimized policies have also been released since March, including Hangzhou's complete cancellation of purchase restrictions on second-hand houses, Beijing's cancellation of divorce house purchase limits; Shanghai and Shenzhen's adjustment and optimization of the "70/90" policy; Foshan, Suzhou, Guiyang and other places have further optimized provident fund loan policies, etc.

Kerui believes that core first-tier and second-tier cities may experience a punctual recovery with favorable policies, while the transaction volume of third-and fourth-tier cities will continue to bottom out.

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