2024.0402

Number of words in this article:3107, reading time is about 5 minutes

introduction： 各地政府拿出“压箱底”优质资源，市场并未无差别回温。

** Author| ** First Finance Sun Mengfan

The "land king" who once appeared frequently during the hot period of the property market has reappeared. In the past week, there have been changes in the local auction market in many places, with high-priced places frequently appearing in core areas, and "Diwang" projects appearing one after another. From Ningbo, Suzhou, Xiamen, to Hefei earlier, etc., the local auction market is very lively in the new year. The changes began at the end of September last year, when the Ministry of Natural Resources issued documents to various provinces and cities, recommending the abolition of land price restrictions in land auctions and the 1.0 limit on plot ratio in remote suburban areas. Since then,"point-like high temperatures have frequently appeared in the land auction market." However, compared with the previous "Land King" New Year in 2016, the market environment has changed greatly. At present, central state-owned enterprises are still the main force in land acquisition, able to bid for land with historically high prices, and most of them are high-quality resources for the government. The market has not warmed up indiscriminately. The more common phenomenon behind the emergence of "land kings" is that the supply side of the property market is changing. The industry believes that as the volume of high-quality land in various places continues to increase, the entry of these projects into the market in the future will form obvious support for improving the market and help build a "guarantee + market" dual-track supply system.

The land king has "sprung up" since the New year, the land market has been "dotted hot", and many cities have auctioned off high-priced land. The most typical is that on March 27, the "Earth King" appeared at the same time in Ningbo, Suzhou and Xiamen. On March 27, a site in Wantou District, Jiangbei District, Ningbo was successfully auctioned. After 31 rounds of bidding, Jiangshan Wanli + Ningbo Dongtou won with a total price of 2.205 billion yuan, with a floor price of 32613 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 7.3%. The floor price of the plot set a new high for residential land in the urban area of Ningbo, becoming the new unit price king of Ningbo. On the same day, the Suzhou Industrial Park also opened a land auction. Plot 02 of the Shuanghu plate received a total of six real estate enterprises' intention to participate in the auction, with a starting price of 2.61 billion yuan. Finally, after 51 rounds of bidding, Greentown Real Estate Group Co., Ltd. won a total price of 3.082 billion yuan, with a premium of 18.22%. The transaction floor price is 65022 yuan per square meter, setting a new record. Prior to this, the highest transaction floor price in Suzhou was Shishan Z03, which was won by Greentown on March 13, with a premium rate of 42.05% and a land price of 45455 yuan per square meter. Now the "Land King" project has once again been refreshed by Greentown, and has exceeded the highest transaction price in Jiangsu Province. The reason why housing companies are so enthusiastic is that the land on the shelves is of high quality. It is reported that the above-mentioned plot 02 is a low-density residential block taken out by the Shuanghu plate, which has been cut off for ten years, and is located on the east side of Jiulong Guobin No. 1 and the west side of Suzhou Imperial Garden. The land price and house prices are among the first price echelon in Suzhou. It is the absolute "rich area" of Suzhou. Similarly, the popular plots in Xiamen are high-quality resources in the local core areas. On the morning of March 27th, Xiamen sold two homesteads with a total construction area of 116900 square meters, with a starting price of 3.68 billion yuan and a total of 4.61 billion yuan. Among them, the site of General Temple 2024P01 in Siming District was won by Xiamen International Trade at a total price of 3.21 billion yuan, equivalent to 62700 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 41%, becoming the new "land king" of the floor land price. Previously, the unit price "Land King" in Xiamen Island was the Datang central 2023P08 plot won by China Shipping last year, with a floor price of about 51800 yuan per square meter at that time. In the eyes of people in the industry, it is not surprising that the site of the General Temple has caused fierce competition. First of all, the land is located in the core area of the old urban area of Xiamen, with complete surrounding life, convenient transportation, and high-quality educational support, and the "gold content" of the land is extremely high; in addition, there are no new house projects for sale in this area, and the pressure of competitive products in the future is relatively small. In addition to the successive "Land King" projects in these three cities, there are also many high-priced places in other cities. For example, at the end of February, in the first soil auction of the year of the Dragon in Hefei, a total of 3.228 billion was sold in three plots, of which the No. 05 plot of Expressway was snatched by China Merchants Shekou for 1.298 billion yuan, with a floor price of 25050 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 54.15%. It has become the new "land king" of Hefei unit price. The highest floor price in Hefei has been refreshed several times since the land price limit was lifted in November last year.

cold and hot differentiation今年一季度，土拍整体走势极为分化。 虽然苏州、宁波、成都、上海土拍溢价率均超9%，核心城市“地王”频现，但从全国角度而言，底价成交的地块幅数占比超七成，土地市场热度分化显著，克而瑞研报显示该观点。 整个一季度，仅有三成销售百强房企拿地，且整体投资格局并未发生转变，依旧是以过去三年拿地较多的央国企为主，民企中仅有滨江、龙湖、伟星投资排名靠前。 即便是“地王”频出的三月，CRIC监测的30家房企投资金额也环比持平，同比下跌36%。房企投资仍旧谨慎，聚焦核心地段、聚焦优势城市，尤其以大本营城市为主。 中指研究院也表示，土拍分化现象愈加明显，一方面自“取消土地限价”政策以来，楼面价重现区域新高。但另一方面，部分城市和区域地块持续维持低价成交，如26日北京怀柔雁栖镇地块底价成交，同日青岛出让的4宗地块也以底价成交。 “整体来看，尽管近期部分地块热度较高，但仅限于核心板块优质地块，整体土地市场分化仍在加剧，土地市场回温仍依赖楼市销售端恢复节奏。”中指研究院分析师孟新增告诉第一财经。 不过，几宗高价地的成交，还是推高了一季度拿地总额。中指研究院数据显示，2024年1～3月，TOP100企业拿地总额2217亿元，同比增长14.9%，较1～2月同比增速有所下降。 当下，拿地榜单中的头部选手仍是央国企。从新增货值看，华润置地、中建壹品和中国铁建位列前三，一季度华润置地以444亿元新增货值占据行业榜单第一，中建壹品以412亿元新增货值占据榜单第二，中国铁建新增货值规模为243亿元，跃至第三。 此外，榜单中出现了多个地方国资企业。比如，石家庄城发投集团一季度新增货值总额182亿元，位居行业第六；中国雄安集团、湖北文化旅游集团、济南高新控股集团、广州城投地产、广州南沙交通投资集团等地方国资企业，均在榜单前二十行列中。 “重点城市拿地金额TOP10房企中，有半数以上为央企国企。”中指院表示，中国铁建、中国中铁等全国性龙头企业仍在多个重点城市布局，这与稳健型国央企的资金状况相对较好有直接关系。滨江集团、绿城中国等民企则在重点深耕区域补充土储。 在业内看来，近期出台的多个新政，对提振土地市场较有针对性。比如，广州120平方米以上取消限购、深圳7090废止等，高端、改善型地块将成为更受欢迎的“香饽饽”，而纯刚需地块则可能进一步遇冷，土地市场将出现进一步冷热分化的局面。 **

The change of supply * the new trend of the land market reflects the change of China's housing supply structure. In the past year, under the background that the sales side has not yet warmed up, the government and real estate enterprises are cautious in taking land, and the local auction market is relatively depressed. In order to stabilize the land market, at the end of September 2023, the Ministry of Natural Resources issued documents to the provincial and municipal natural resources authorities, including proposals to abolish the restrictions on land price in land auctions and the 1.0 limit on the volume ratio of the outer suburbs. Subsequently, local governments have abolished the land auction price ceiling, returning to the era of "the highest bidder gets". From the point of view of the industry, this is not only to boost the local market, but also to respond to the direction of a new round of housing reform, helping to build a "guarantee" and "market" two-track supply system. The new model for the transformation and development of the real estate industry in the future is to increase the construction and supply of indemnificatory housing, so that wage-income groups can gradually achieve home ownership and eliminate the anxiety that they cannot afford commercial housing; the second is to let commercial housing return to commodity attributes, meet the demand for improved housing, and promote the transformation and high-quality development of the real estate industry, which is called "new housing reform" in the industry. Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, said that in the past, under the policies of "90But 70" and "limiting land prices, premiums and house prices", housing enterprises not only had to build products such as improved and luxury houses, but also had to allocate 70% of small apartments and competitive construction, resulting in a mismatch between the supply and demand of commercial housing. It did not proceed from the real demand of the market, and even if they had money, they could not buy real "luxury houses." "to break the situation, we need supply-side reforms at the land and product levels." He said that future commercial housing projects will remove various burdens such as public allocation and livelihood protection, and create pure improved housing, while rigid demand and some improved demand will turn to the second-hand housing market, including affordable housing at lower prices. to achieve "the return of the market to the market and the guarantee of security". Over the past year, high-end improved housing has obviously sold well, and 2023 has become a big year for luxury housing transactions. The transaction scale of luxury homes with a total price of more than 10 million yuan in key cities has steadily increased, and the volume of high-priced housing transactions in core cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Meng Xin said that in 2024, Hangzhou, Quanzhou, Fuzhou and Xiamen continued to optimize the ceiling requirements for housing sales prices, and the local auction scale was continuously optimized and adjusted, laying a better foundation for enterprises to build improved products. In 2023, the high premium of 22 cities (generally refers to the transaction premium rate of more than 10%) the planned construction area of land transactions has increased by 20% compared with the same period last year, and the volume of high-quality land in various places will continue to be sold this year. The entry of these projects into the market in the future will further form a certain support for improving the market. Ping an Securities said that the construction of a new supply system of "security plus market" is accelerating. In the future, rigid demand for families to buy houses will be mainly solved through the allocation of affordable housing or second-hand housing. Commercial housing in core areas is mainly oriented to the demand for improved housing with affordability. **