2024.0406

Number of words in this article:5972, reading time is about 10 minutes

introduction ：业内人士建议，通过“一城一企”资源化整合行动清出安全管理水平较低的企业，扩大整合后企业的规模、保证燃气企业长期稳定经营的同时，提高行业安全管理水平。

** Author| ** First Finance Guo Jiying

More than half a month ago, a deflagration accident occurred in Yanjiao, Hebei Province, killing seven people and injuring 27 others, which temporarily shocked the country. After the accident, China quickly carried out a large-scale special investigation and rectification of gas safety risks. Recently, Henan Province, Sichuan Province, Hunan Province, Anhui Province, Gansu Province and other places held meetings and proposed to carry out special treatment of the problem of "operation with disease" of gas pipeline in the province, comprehensively carry out the investigation of hidden dangers in gas network safety, and carry out renovation and renovation of gas pipeline in old cities and towns such as "operation with disease", so as to improve the ability of gas safety prevention and control and the level of modern management of facilities. At the beginning of the full line of "gas transmission from west to east", China's urban gas market has been developed for 20 years. Nowadays, natural gas transmission and distribution systems have been popularized in more than 2800 cities and counties. The total length of these gas pipelines buried under the road and in the residential area is about 1.2 million kilometers, among which many old pipe networks and equipment and facilities have hidden dangers such as aging and damage, which need to be eliminated and updated urgently. The first Financial and Economic reporter interviewed a number of urban gas enterprises and people in the industry to understand that at present, the unclear division of responsibilities for the renewal and renovation of old pipelines, the low enthusiasm caused by enterprises to bear higher renovation costs, and the fact that the renovation costs of old pipe networks cannot be fully delivered through the terminal sales price of natural gas are still many sticking points that restrict the renovation and renewal. Industry insiders suggest that through the resource integration action of "one city and one enterprise", we should clear out the enterprises with a low level of safety management, expand the scale of enterprises after integration, ensure the long-term stable operation of gas enterprises, and improve the level of safety management in the industry.

The gas pipeline network is "operating with illness" 3月13日7时54分，正是上班早高峰时段，河北省廊坊市所属的三河市燕郊镇发生一起爆燃事故。根据现场视频，爆炸发生的巨响来自燕郊镇小张各庄村一栋四层建筑内，现场有火球冲出，浓烟滚滚，爆炸波及周边建筑，致使玻璃震碎，附近路面多辆汽车受损。爆炸后，该四层建筑楼体发生坍塌，部分建筑物只剩下墙体框架。 关于爆燃事故原因的初步披露，新华社3月14日报道称，据事故调查专家组组长刘福来介绍，初步判断为燃气管道泄漏。新华社还援引了三河市应急管理局局长纪宏图的说法称，燕郊镇较早开通了管道燃气，地下管网比较复杂，老的管网已经使用20多年，埋藏最深的位于地下12米，事故调查难度较大，难以确定单点泄漏还是多点泄漏。爆燃事故与部分经营业主操作不当没有直接关系。 值得注意的是，包括此次爆燃事故在内，河北省燕郊镇近两年来已经发生了3起爆燃或爆炸事故。2022年5月16日，三河市燕郊行宫东街道二三小区15号楼一住户发生燃气爆燃事故，现场2人受伤；同年6月24日，燕郊镇福成尚街底商发生液化气罐爆炸，致2死20伤。 深圳市博轶咨询公司总经理杨常新表示，燃气管道近几年正在进入一个事故发生率较高的时期。他解释称，以“陕气进京”“西气东输”为发端，中国城市燃气自2000年开始大规模开发，目前绝大部分县级以上城市铺设了燃气管道，其中，不少运行时间超过20年的管网和设备设施存在安全隐患，需要淘汰更新。 一起典型案例是，2021年6月13日，湖北省十堰市张湾区艳湖社区集贸市场发生重大燃气爆炸事故，造成26人死亡，138人受伤。事故直接原因是天然气中压钢管严重锈蚀破裂，泄漏的天然气在建筑物下方河道内密闭空间聚集，遇到餐饮商户排油烟管道排出的火星发生爆炸。该事故暴露了违规建设形成隐患、隐患长期得不到排查整改等问题。 根据中国城市燃气协会安全管理工作委员会发布的《全国燃气事故分析报告》（简称“报告”），2023年共收集到媒体报道的中国内地燃气事故612起，其中天然气事故占比近半，比2022年增加了15起，造成16人死亡，167人受伤。天然气事故类型中，管网问题占比超过七成，其中，原因排在前两位的是第三方施工破坏、管道腐蚀泄漏。 燕郊爆燃事故再次敲响警钟。第一财经记者注意到，事故发生后不久，北京市、海南省、辽宁省、河南省、内蒙古自治区等多地发布2024年老旧燃气管线年度更新改造计划；3月末以来，又有四川省、湖南省、安徽省、甘肃省、河南省等多地提出在全省范围内开展燃气管道“带病运行”问题专项治理，排除风险隐患，加快推进燃气管道和设施改造更新，提升城镇燃气安全水平。 近期，安徽省住房和城乡建设厅召开的全省燃气管道“带病运行”治理工作座谈会指出，“管道占压、穿越密闭空间、第三方施工破坏、管道设施老化锈蚀等问题是当前燃气管道最突出的安全隐患。” 上述会议要求，压实各方责任，对职责不清的事项按照全流程周期梳理，推动各负其责、同题共答、形成合力；防范第三方施工破坏，形成安全监管高压态势；加大燃气管道改造政策支持力度，支持各地积极向上争取各类资金，多渠道筹措更新改造资金等。 “整个周末都在加班。”在这场国内大范围开展的燃气安全隐患专项排查工作中，一名华北地区燃气企业负责人李响告诉第一财经记者，自燕郊爆燃事故发生后，他所在的地方管理部门组织召开了多场座谈会，和燃气企业共同探究推进老旧管道更新改造的问题，并对燃气管道风险隐患排查、建立管道安全体检制度提出多项建议。 李响表示，“此次治理力度非常大！作为企业方的感受是，最近一直在开会，递交各种材料。”

What is the difficulty of updating and transforming? 综合上述省市发布的治理方案可以看出，本轮专项治理的重点方向包括：全面排查、重点治理使用年限长、风险系数高的城镇燃气管道设施，同时，鼓励采用新设备、新技术、新工艺，实现老旧燃气管网的智慧化改造更新，进一步实现燃气管网状态实时监控、预警预报和智能决策。 事实上，类似建议在2022年6月便有提及。国务院办公厅当年6月10日印发《城市燃气管道等老化更新改造实施方案（2022—2025年）》（简称“《方案》”），明确在2025年底前，改造完成约10万公里老旧城市燃气管网；要求推进数字化、网络化、智能化建设，完善燃气监管系统，实现城市燃气管道和设施动态监管、互联互通、数据共享。 不过，资金压力、低回报率是掣肘多数城燃企业参与改造的重要因素。 多名从业者告诉第一财经记者，国内老旧燃气管道正处于改造更新攻坚阶段，叠加技术改造投入，企业经营成本压力加剧，而且此一成本很难通过天然气终端销售价格顺出；另一方面，老旧管网改造大多针对居民用户，此类用户用气量小，且后期运营、维护成本较高，与工商业用户相比，收益回报偏低。 城燃企业虽然具有市政公用属性，但仍为市场化运作。传统城燃企业商业模式比较简单，两大主要收入在管道燃气销售和接驳/工程业务上。其中，管道燃气销售价格由门站价格和配气价格构成，前者指天然气经营企业的购气价格，后者指管道燃气经营者通过城镇管网系统向终端用户提供管道天然气配送服务的价格，包括人工、维护、折旧、管理费用等。 2018年推行的城市燃气价格改革政策，对城燃企业配气、工程收益提出强监管，城市燃气企业这两大原有主要高利润业务逐步向稳定、低收益转变。其中，配气价格中，剔除折旧及摊销费、运行维护费以及税费之和以外，燃气企业的准许收入按照不超过7%的准许收益率计算，低于给长输管线设定的收益率。另据国家发改委在2019年发布的《关于规范城镇燃气工程安装收费的指导意见》，城镇燃气工程安装收费标准原则上成本利润率不得超过10%。 一名国内龙头城燃企业内部人士表示，除了业务上的利润监管之外，国内的天然气价格机制也“卡得他们很难受”。 由于中国天然气价格处于从管制向市场化过渡阶段，全链条价格机制呈现一种“肠梗阻”模式——上游气源成本随市场波动，中游城燃企业获取气源的管输成本由国家发改委控制，而到终端销售价格，尤其是居民用户燃气价格则由地方政府监管。由此导致的问题是，在上游气价走高时，终端销售价格很难将成本压力传导出去，燃气企业成为上下游价格倒挂的主要承担者。 城燃行业将2022年视为“史上最惨淡”的一年。受俄乌冲突影响，国际天然气价格暴涨，国内燃气企业普遍遭遇严重的气价倒挂，业绩大幅跳水，影响到燃气安全稳定供应。彼时，除了背靠大股东中国石油的昆仑能源（00135.HK）录得净利润同比微涨之外，其他四大城燃上市公司港华智慧能源（01083.HK）、华润燃气（01193.HK）、新奥能源（02688.HK）、中国燃气（00384.HK），2022年净利润均同比跌逾两成。 因此，“钱从哪儿来”，是一些业内人士在面对同一年提出的老旧燃气管道更新改造方案时，脑中蹦出的首个问题，“另外，谁担‘大头’？” 杨常新介绍，管网更新改造资金由城市燃气企业、中央和地方政府以及用户合理共担。具体来看，小区公共部分，即“红线”内部分管网，以及小区居民户内管网的改造费用，由小区业主承担，中央财政会给予一定补贴；“红线”外的市政公用管网则由燃气公司出资改造。 多名业内人士介绍称，当前“红线”内老旧管网改造的普遍操作是，地方政府委托燃气公司施工，工程款由燃气公司先行垫付。这意味着，城市燃气企业短期内或面临较高的改造投资压力。而“经营时间越长的燃气企业，投入老旧管网改造的资金压力就越大。”杨常新如是表示。 “我们起初希望能接一些小区庭院内的改造工程，赚一点薄利，但在实际推进中，红线内改造工程要求企业承担较大比例的配套资金。”一位龙头城燃企业内部人士告诉第一财经记者，公司承接的红线内用户端老旧管网改造投资总额约80多亿元，其中公司被要求配资在三成以上，该金额占其2022年净利润的七成以上，“这给我们带来不小的经营压力。” 另外，城燃企业改造投资能否通过终端销售价格顺出，能顺出多少，也拖累了老旧管网改造的进度。李响介绍，燃气管网改造成本要跟地方价格主管部门协商，若经主管部门审批承认价格适当，则可放在配气价格中顺出。但他表示，实际审计流程比较复杂，有些燃气企业会有顾虑，从经营考虑，公司投资老旧管网改造的积极性不高。 “燃气公司大多希望能长久稳定经营。”广东油气商会信息部部长姚达明认为，燃气公司对于安全经营非常谨慎，在资金各方面安排不甚紧张的情况下，企业一般都会在安全期内完成改造计划。

**怎样“治未病”？Strengthening the safety management of the industry through administrative means is the main way to improve the management of gas safety in China. In order to promote the development of the gas industry in the early years, the Ministry of Housing and Construction issued the measures for the franchise Management of Municipal Public Utilities in 2004, stipulating that in a specific area of a city, only gas companies with franchise rights have the right to build natural gas branch pipe networks and supply gas to end users within a certain period of time. The term of franchise in the gas industry generally does not exceed 30 years. In recent years, the franchise of a number of gas enterprises is about to expire. In order to clear out the enterprises with low level of safety management, strengthen the safety management of the industry, expand the enterprise scale and reduce the vicious competition in the market, since the second half of 2020, some provinces have launched the mid-term evaluation of gas franchise one after another. that is, recommended or led by the local government, large gas groups integrate several small and medium-sized gas companies in a city, leaving only one franchise company in a city. Or a city "a net". People in the industry call it "one city, one enterprise". In July 2020, Zhejiang Province took the lead in promoting "one city, one enterprise". Since then, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Yunnan, Henan, Shanxi and other places have launched the mid-term evaluation of gas franchise to clean up the market. This year, "one city, one enterprise" has gone one step further. On February 1, the Housing and Construction Bureau of Jincheng City, Shanxi Province issued the implementation Plan for the Reform of specialized Integration of Urban Pipeline Gas subjects in Jincheng City, encouraging existing gas operating enterprises to obtain gas business licenses in the form of reorganization and integration. The integration mode is that each county (city, district) determines a pipeline gas management enterprise by the way of fair competition, as the main body of the regional integration reform, orderly promote the large-scale and specialized operation of pipeline gas, standardized management, interconnection of regional gas network, same price in the same region and so on. Jincheng Housing and Construction Bureau requires all counties (cities and districts) to carry out standardization construction, withdrawal of bad enterprises and enterprise integration before the end of December this year, so as to reduce the number of urban pipeline gas management enterprises. However, Chen Xinsong, an energy lawyer at Sunshine Times Law firm, suggested that the local government should make clear the expectation of renewing the franchise to the enterprise as soon as possible before the franchise expires. He believes that maintaining the stability of the operation of gas enterprises can also ensure their enthusiasm to participate in the transformation of old pipe networks to a certain extent. "in the critical period of the transfer of management rights, the regulatory role of the legal system on society is highlighted. If the gas enterprises are not sure whether they can get the management right in the next stage, they may have a negative attitude of 'making wedding clothes for others' and lack of enthusiasm for safety investment. Of course, if the enterprise does not meet the safety operating standards set by the government, it should be cleared out. " At the national level, measures are also being tried out to promote the long-term and stable operation of urban combustion enterprises. Chen Xinsong said that at the end of November 2023, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the measures for franchise Management of Infrastructure and Public Utilities (revised draft for soliciting opinions), extending the franchise period to 40 years, an increase of 10 years compared with previous management methods. Yang Changxin believes, "if you want to cure safety, the core still needs to increase investment." The premise is to improve the profitability of the enterprise. " In his view, promoting the price linkage between the upstream and downstream of natural gas and the innovation and transformation of urban combustion enterprises is an important starting point for the current industry to enhance profitability. First Business reporter combed found that according to the recently disclosed 2023 annual report, except that China Gas has not yet published its annual report due to accounting cycle, the other four major urban combustion enterprises have achieved at least 10% growth in 2023 net profit, which is in sharp contrast to its general decline in 2022 net profit. The reasons for the rise in comprehensive net profit can be seen that, in addition to the increase in domestic natural gas consumption, the price linkage between the upstream and downstream of natural gas promotes the increase of gas sales margin and the profitability of integrated service business of gas enterprises. it is also an important reason for the recovery of profitability of urban combustion enterprises. Hong Kong China Smart Energy said in its annual report that in June 2023, the National Development and Reform Commission issued "guidance on establishing and improving the linkage mechanism of upstream and downstream prices of natural gas" to all provinces, introducing an automatic transmission mechanism. The urban gas prices of local residents have established an adjustment mechanism that can rise and fall and flexibly reflect changes in supply and demand, and the company has made remarkable progress in its pricing work. In 2023, Hong Kong China Smart Energy and China Resources Gas respectively achieved sales of about 75% and 60% of residents' gas. In that year, the price difference of New Austria Energy sales increased by 0.02 yuan per cubic meter over the previous year, reaching 0.55 yuan per cubic meter, while that of China Resources Gas sales increased significantly by 0.06 yuan per cubic meter to 0.51 yuan per cubic meter. The price difference of gas sales refers to the difference between the terminal selling price of natural gas and the cost of purchasing natural gas in urban gas enterprises. "the transformation of the old pipe network is an infrastructure project with strong public welfare and benefit to the people, high technical requirements and large capital investment," the relevant person in charge of China Gas said. "to promote the further improvement of the price linkage mechanism of natural gas upstream and downstream, it will provide a strong guarantee for the investment of safety measures for gas enterprises and ensure the implementation of special management work." A number of industry insiders believe that urban gas enterprises can also optimize procurement costs by purchasing gas sources through multiple channels and enriching resource pools on the premise of stabilizing the basic amount of natural gas supplied by the "three barrels of oil" upstream. Li Yalan, executive director of China Urban Gas Association, suggested at the 4th China LNG Development Forum that "good blacksmiths are needed to make good steel". Large urban gas companies should actively build their own LNG receiving stations, or participate in LNG trade through national pipe network receiving terminals. China Resources Gas has extended to the middle and upper reaches of the natural gas industry chain. LNG, the first vessel of China Resources Gas, was unloaded at the East Guangdong LNG receiving Station of the National Pipeline Network. This is the first time that the company has purchased imported LNG independently and fully, and the unloaded more than 60,000 tons of LNG will be transported to the member enterprises of China Resources Gas in Guangdong and Fujian through the national pipeline network and tank trucks. The company said that in the next stage, it will give full play to the overall advantages of independent procurement, scheduling and sales, gradually build an international resource pool, and continuously optimize the resource structure and procurement costs, so as to promote the stable and healthy development of the main industry. In addition, the integrated service business has become a new growth pole for the profits of urban combustion enterprises. In 2023, the integrated service business income of New Austria Energy, Hong Kong-China Smart Energy and China Resources Gas all increased by more than 20% compared with the same period last year. Yang Changxin believes that in the future, urban gas enterprises are in urgent need of innovation or transformation, mainly in the direction of extending to the middle and upper reaches of the natural gas industry chain, developing value-added services, and transforming into multi-energy suppliers. He said, "in the past two years, the transformation of the old pipe network has entered a peak, the income of urban gas enterprises has been strongly regulated, and profit margins have declined. It may be better for enterprises to survive these two years' sandwich period'. " (Li Xiang is a pseudonym in the text)