Turkey faces data-heavy June with GDP, inflation, and central bank rate decision in focus
Turkey's financial markets are heading into a data-heavy June after the Eid al-Adha holiday, with first-quarter GDP, monthly inflation, and a central bank rate decision due. The economy likely grew 2.7% year-over-year in Q1, while annual inflation stood at 32.37% in April. The central bank, which held its rate at 37% in May, raised its end-2026 inflation target to 24% from 16%.
Turkey's financial markets are bracing for a data-heavy June following the nine-day Eid al-Adha holiday, with investors focused on first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP), monthly inflation figures, and a central bank interest rate decision.
The Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) is scheduled to release first-quarter GDP data on Monday, which is expected to show the economy expanded 2.7% year-over-year, according to surveys. The economy grew 3.6% in 2025, extending a growth streak to 22 consecutive quarters.
Inflation data, due next Friday, will be closely watched. Consumer prices rose 4.18% month-over-month and 32.37% year-over-year in April, driven by pressures from the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key transit route for roughly a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supply. The domestic producer price index rose 3.17% month-over-month and 28.59% year-over-year in April.
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) earlier this month raised its end-2026 interim inflation target to 24% from 16%, lifted its end-2027 target to 15% from 9%, and set its end-2028 interim target at 9%. The bank held its benchmark one-week repo rate at 37% at its previous meeting. Its Monetary Policy Committee is scheduled to meet on June 11.
Trade Minister Ömer Bolat is expected to announce May foreign trade data on June 10. April exports rose 22.3% year-over-year to $25.4 billion, the second-highest monthly export figure in Turkey's history.
On the same day, TurkStat will release April labor market statistics. The unemployment rate fell to 8.1% in March, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, with the number of unemployed declining by 96,000 to 2.87 million. Industrial production data for April is also due June 10, following a March decline of 0.8% month-over-month and 1.1% year-over-year.
The CBRT will publish current account balance figures on June 12. The balance registered a $9.67 billion deficit in March.