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Today on the desk

28 May 2026

Today's Brief 28 May 2026

Global Brief

▸ Global oil inventories fell by 246 million barrels as the Hormuz blockade tightens
▸ while Europe signs a $2.7 billion Ukraine aid package and Brussels opens a probe into JD.com's Ceconomy bid

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Global Briefing May 28

Hormuz Blockade Drains Oil Reserves as Europe Rearms Ukraine

The IEA reported a record 246-million-barrel drop in global oil inventories in March-April; RBC's Helima Croft saw losses nearing 1.5 billion barrels and prices headed toward 2008 peaks if Hormuz stays shut. Sweden signed a $2.7 billion Ukraine package built around 16 free Gripen C/D and 20-22 new E/F bought with €2.5 billion of the EU's €90 billion loan. The European Commission opened its first Foreign Subsidies probe of a Chinese deal and rebuked Ankara over Cyprus' COP31 exclusion. Trump's US pursued ceasefire and strikes in parallel as Vance touted a $1.5 trillion defence budget.

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Hormuz blockade drains global oil reserves at record pace; commercial stocks risk critical lows by end of June, analysts warn

The International Energy Agency said global observed oil inventories fell by 246 million barrels in March and April -- a record pace -- as Strait of Hormuz traffic has stayed at a standstill almost three months into the Iran war and the agency's March-coordinated 400 million-barrel release has not been followed by a second. Capital Economics' Neil Shearing warned in a May 18 note that commercial oil stocks could reach critically low levels by the end of June, and RBC Capital Markets' Helima Croft estimated cumulative crude losses would exceed one billion barrels by month-end and approach 1.5 billion barrels if Hormuz remains shut through June, potentially driving prices toward 2008 peak levels. French Finance Minister Roland Lescure told the Financial Times after hosting G7 counterparts that reserves were "finite" and could not be released "without having visibility on the duration and intensity of the conflict."

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JD Vance says Trump pushing $1.5 trillion defense budget, cites Golden Dome in Air Force Academy speech

Vice President JD Vance on Thursday told graduates of the U.S. Air Force Academy that President Donald Trump is pushing for a $1.5 trillion defense budget and touted the Golden Dome missile-defense system. Vance spoke as the administration circulates a draft peace agreement with Iran among allies including Israel, aiming to open the Strait of Hormuz and unfreeze $12 billion in Iranian assets. The speech came as new data showed U.S. inflation rose at its fastest pace in three years in April, driven by higher energy costs amid the war with Iran.

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Sweden to donate 16 Gripen C/D fighters and sell Ukraine up to 22 new Gripen E in $2.7 billion air-defence package

At Uppsala Air Base, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a defence declaration formalising Sweden's largest military aid package to date for Ukraine, worth about $2.7 billion: Sweden will transfer 16 older Gripen JAS 39 C/D jets free of charge with deliveries from early 2027, and Ukraine will purchase 20 to 22 new Gripen E/F using €2.5 billion drawn from the EU's €90 billion Ukraine Support Loan, with deliveries from 2030. The package also commits nearly $400 million to drone production and includes long-range Meteor air-to-air missiles and pilot and technician training that has already begun -- Zelenskyy said he expects the first Gripens within 10 months. The framework signed in October 2025 contemplates up to 150 Gripens for Ukraine over the next decade; Saab shares rose 4.4 percent at 1141 GMT to lead Europe's gainers.

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Oil prices drop on report of US-Iran ceasefire deal pending Trump approval

Oil prices fell on Thursday after Axios reported that the US and Iran had reached an agreement for a 60-day ceasefire extension and the start of talks on Tehran's nuclear program, pending final approval from President Donald Trump. Brent crude dropped to a low of $93.36 a barrel from an earlier high of $98, before rebounding to about $94. The decline came despite fresh US airstrikes on an Iranian military site in Bandar Abbas, which Iran called a grave violation of the ceasefire.

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