Open-Source Intelligence

Geopolitical and cyber intelligence.

Daily briefings on the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Ukraine, and Turkey, with continuous monitoring of global cyber threats.

Today on the desk
31 August 2026
Tracked Situations

Threads

Deep tracking of the major situations shaping each country — one open sample per nation.

de · Germany Free

Germany's Far-Right Surge in the East

The AfD has overtaken every mainstream party — leading nationally at 27% in the ARD-DeutschlandTrend while Merz's government sinks to a record-low 12% satisfaction — and is poised to win its first state premiership in the autumn east-German elections, with INSA finding 69% of Germans now expect it. It polls 41% in Saxony-Anhalt (vote 6 Sept) and 36% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (20 Sept), where it has adopted hardline manifestos demanding a 'border and return police', detention facilities and an explicit 'remigration agenda', and has drafted a 150–200-post plan to staff the state administration. The CDU 'firewall' is cracking on two fronts: at least six non-AfD MPs (likely CDU) backed an AfD candidate in a Bundestag committee vote, while local AfD chapters in Saxony seat members of the openly extremist Free Saxons in their groups despite a formal incompatibility ruling. The pushback is escalating in parallel — a Hanover court let Lower Saxony classify the state AfD as a confirmed extremist case, Brussels' party authority moved to strip the AfD-aligned ESN bloc of EU funding, and politically-motivated crime hit a record ~85,000 offences in 2025.

fr · France Free

The 2027 Presidential Race Begins

The 2027 presidential campaign opened in May–June 2026 as a wide-open contest for the first post-Macron Elysée, the president barred by the two-term limit from standing again. Three poles are already forming. The centre fractured into a duel: Renaissance secretary-general Gabriel Attal (37) was endorsed by the party's National Council 91% (221–22 against a primary), prompting former PM Élisabeth Borne to resign as council chair over his 'direction', and he formally declared on 22 May in Mur-de-Barrez before a 5,000-strong first rally in Paris on 30 May — but his rival Édouard Philippe (Horizons) launched first and has rejected Attal's proposed centre-right 'liaison committee' primary, leaving the bloc split. On the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon (LFI) declared his fourth bid on 3–4 May and held a 26,000-strong first rally in Saint-Denis on 7 June, declaring the left primary 'finished' and pledging a €1,700 minimum wage and retirement at 60 — but he polls only 13–15% and the broader left (Ruffin, Cazeneuve, Glucksmann, the PS) is fragmented and, per an Ipsos/Le Parisien poll, sums to barely a third of the vote with no candidate projected into the runoff. The far-right Rassemblement National leads the first round (Bardella ~34%) but hangs on a 7 July Paris appeals-court verdict on Marine Le Pen's eligibility; her lieutenant Jordan Bardella (30) is already running a shadow campaign — international travel, ambassador meetings, a 95%-complete programme — while the party struggles to secure a €10.5m campaign loan. The organising fear across the centre and right is a first-round elimination producing an LFI-vs-RN runoff, which is driving Attal's unity push, Wauquiez standing aside for LR's Bruno Retailleau (validated by 74% of members), and Beaune's call for a single 'republican' candidate by autumn.

gb · United Kingdom Free

Britain's Leadership Crisis and the Burnham Reset

Andy Burnham has begun his premiership with a visible break from Keir Starmer rather than a managerial handover. Scrapping the digital-ID programme and redirecting its estimated three-year cost toward affordability gives the reset a concrete policy marker, but the government still has to specify how the money will reach households and what identity infrastructure will remain.

tr · Turkey Free

Erdoğan's Crackdown and the CHP Leadership Crisis

The court-driven CHP leadership rupture is hardening into an organizational split. Ozel's New Party is building local structures from resigning CHP members, while the two camps dispute whether hundreds of thousands have left the former main opposition.

ua · Ukraine Free

Russia-Ukraine War: The Ground War & Front Lines

Ukraine recorded 258 combat clashes in one day, including 46 Russian assaults in the Pokrovsk sector. Russian units are preparing motorcycle and quad-bike attacks toward Dobropillia to reduce exposure to Ukrainian drones, trading armour protection for speed and dispersion.

us · United States Free

US-Iran War

Iran has conditioned any full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz on six demands, while Washington is shifting from renewed strikes toward sanctions and economic pressure. The naval closure remains the central bargaining lever, with an Oman shipping arrangement still short of a political settlement.

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us48

Trump Considers Limited Strikes Against Iran in Hormuz Amid Tensions

U.S. President Donald Trump is contemplating limited strikes in the Strait of Hormuz to deter Iran's military capabilities and protect oil tankers and U.S. naval assets. The plan follows recent tensions and attacks, with the U.S. military taking measures to degrade Iranian military capabilities in the region, including clearing mines and guiding ships through the strait. The decision is being made in response to Iran's efforts to rebuild its military capacity and the need to ensure the safety of shipping in the strait. The recent exchange of fire with Iran has raised concerns, prompting the consideration of strikes to maintain safety for oil tankers and U.S. naval assets.

ua48

Russian Drone Attacks on Mykolaiv Region Continue with New Casualties

Russian drone attacks on the Mykolaiv region have continued, with a new attack on September 1 injuring a 54-year-old man and causing a cargo vehicle to catch fire. This incident follows previous strikes on August 30 and during the night of August 31, which damaged vehicles and a warehouse and injured a man, highlighting the ongoing aerial assaults on civilian areas and infrastructure in southern Ukraine.

ua48

Russia's Escalation of Jet-Powered Drone Attacks on Ukraine

Russia has escalated its use of jet-powered drones in attacks on Ukraine, launching over 800 in the past four days. These drones, including the Shahed models with turbojet engines, are three times faster and harder to shoot down than previous interceptors. Over half of the drones fired were jet-powered, with Kyiv being the main target. The strikes target logistics, shopping centers, postal terminals, critical infrastructure, and other strategic sites, destroying about 90% of Ukraine's modern warehouse space in recent weeks and significantly disrupting grain exports. Russia has also employed Banderols, a system combining drone and missile features, flying at up to 600 kilometers per hour and being harder to shoot down. This event extends the ongoing conflict dynamics involving advanced drone technology.

ua46

Russian Missile and Drone Attacks on Kyiv Continue, Causing Casualties and Damage

Continuing the pattern of Russian missile and drone attacks on Kyiv, a recent incident resulted in at least eight deaths and multiple injuries, coinciding with heightened security measures as children returned to school after the summer holidays. The Kyiv region has been under sustained pressure from Russian drone attacks in recent weeks, with jet-powered drones adding to the threat. A massive attack on Kyiv and its surrounding region, involving various missiles and 168 drones, killed at least 14 and injured over 40, and damaged the office of the We – Ukraine TV channel. The Ukrainian air force had earlier warned of the threat of "ballistic weapons and other means of attack against Kyiv and the region", and officials reported a massive attack by Russian missiles and strike drones, with as many as a dozen air-raid alerts a day.

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Cyber Threat Intelligence
Daily snapshot · 31 August 2026
Full dashboard
Events tracked
226
Threat actors
96
Categories
11
Regions hit
54
By attack category
Access Brokerage
52
Web Defacement
45
Ransomware
36
Data Leak
30
Data Breach
27
DDoS
27
Top victim countries
United States
31
Israel
22
Indonesia
19
India
15
France
13
Mexico
11
Aggregated from 11 categories · 54 regions Open dashboard
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