Geopolitical and cyber intelligence.
Daily briefings on the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Ukraine, and Turkey, with continuous monitoring of global cyber threats.
- ▸ Washington condemned Iran's Hormuz toll in June
- ▸ then imposed its own 20% levy in July. The policy empties the strait as shipping halts and oil prices rise
Threads
Deep tracking of the major situations shaping each country — one open sample per nation.
Germany's Rearmament & the Bundeswehr
Germany is trying to convert money into a credible army faster than the institution can absorb it. Pistorius's 'Responsibility for Europe' strategy — the Bundeswehr's first since 1955 — targets 260,000 active soldiers plus 200,000 reservists (460,000 total) by the mid-2030s, but the force sits at roughly 186,000, barely 800 above a year earlier, so the buildup depends on a voluntary-service questionnaire for every 18-year-old man and a legal trigger to reinstate conscription if recruiting falls short. Readiness, not topline, is the binding constraint: the government has admitted a repair backlog that left under half the PzH 2000 howitzers operational in May and Marder/Boxer fleets stuck in maintenance, while 72% of Germans tell Insa-style polling they doubt the Bundeswehr can defend the country. The clock is set externally — top general Carsten Breuer warns Russia could be capable of a large-scale war against NATO by 2029, and Trump's threatened withdrawal of 5,000 US troops from Vilseck (of ~35,000 in Germany) plus the cancelled intermediate-range missile deployment is forcing Berlin to backfill deep-strike and air-defence gaps it cannot yet fill. The 2027 budget sets defence at €105.8bn (3.1% of GDP), but money lands in a procurement system (BAAINBw) and a recruiting base that have failed to scale for a decade.
France's Retreat in Africa
France's strategic position in Africa is collapsing on the security front even as Macron stages a managed pivot. On April 29 a joint offensive by the Tuareg-led Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and al-Qaeda affiliate JNIM captured the northern Malian city of Kidal and killed Mali's defence minister Sadio Camara, with the rebels demanding the permanent withdrawal of Russia's Africa Corps — which then evacuated Kidal under rebel escort, a humiliation French FM Jean-Noël Barrot seized on to declare Russia 'largely defeated' in Africa. The vacuum France left behind is being filled by rivals: at the 'Africa Forward' forum Macron openly admitted France has lost ground to China, Türkiye and the US, blaming 'decades of complacency and arrogance.' His answer is a strategic reorientation to Anglophone East Africa — co-hosting the May 11–12 Nairobi summit with Kenya's Ruto, pledging €23bn in investment (€14bn French, €9bn African), a defence pact with Kenya and CMA CGM's €700m for Mombasa port — while conceding France should no longer treat Africa as a 'preserve' of guaranteed contracts. The Sahel juntas continue to push France out: Niger suspended nine French media outlets including AFP, France 24 and RFI; Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso withdrew from La Francophonie. And the colonial-memory front has hardened into law — Algeria enacted legislation criminalising French colonisation (1830–1962) as a 'state crime' enumerating 31 imprescriptible offences, even as Paris simultaneously works to thaw the worst Franco-Algerian crisis since 1962 (ambassador returned after a year-long recall, judicial cooperation restarted).
Starmer's Embattled Premiership
Keir Starmer's grip on power has collapsed into an open succession battle. A catastrophic set of May local elections — more than 1,400 English council seats lost, Bradford, Calderdale, Wakefield, Leeds and Barnsley gone (Barnsley ending 50 years of Labour rule), and Labour third in the Welsh Senedd for the first time in a century — triggered a backbench revolt that grew from 30 to more than 90 MPs publicly demanding his resignation. The challenge has crystallised around three rivals: Health Secretary Wes Streeting, who quit cabinet on 20 May citing lost confidence and is running a shadow leadership campaign; Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham, whom the NEC cleared to contest the 18 June Makerfield by-election as his route into Parliament; and Angela Rayner, freed to stand after HMRC cleared her tax probe. Markets have made the crisis tangible — 30-year gilt yields hit a 1998 high and the pound fell 2.2% in a day on fears of a fiscally looser successor unseating Chancellor Rachel Reeves. Two faultlines run beneath the leadership fight: the Mandelson vetting scandal, whose released files show No 10 described as 'beleaguered and bereft', and a bitter Gaza/Israel split pitting Streeting (who circulated a 22-page dossier of war-crimes evidence) against Starmer and the late Mandelson, who called Streeting's stance 'wild' and 'hysterical'.
Turkey vs Israel Over Gaza
Turkey's rupture with Israel has hardened into a sustained confrontation fought on three fronts at once: the sea, the Gaza crossings, and Al-Aqsa. The Global Sumud Flotilla, intercepted near Crete on 30 April, regrouped and relaunched from Marmaris on 14 May with 54 boats and activists from 70 countries; one released participant has now given a first-person account of 52 hours on the Israeli landing craft Nahshon alleging beatings, a stabbing and a 'torture container' at Ashdod. On aid, Ankara — the largest provider with 100,000+ tons delivered — accuses Israel of holding Turkish trucks of baby formula and shelter materials for weeks, and Israel's COGAT has ordered the WFP to sever ties with the Turkish charity IHH, cutting support to 166,000 Palestinians. On Jerusalem, Türkiye and seven other states condemned settler incursions at Al-Aqsa and demanded recognition of Jordan's custodianship, and the dispute went personal when Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz attacked Erdoğan and Interior Minister Çiftçi over a 'liberation of Jerusalem' remark. This is a rhetoric-and-pressure war, not a military one: no troops face off, but trade is severed, consulates are under review, and Erdoğan is bidding to lead the Muslim world against Israel.
The Search for a Ceasefire
Through spring 2026 Ukraine shifted from demanding full territorial restoration to seeking the fastest possible halt to the fighting, while refusing to legitimise Russia's gains. Zelensky told Sky News he would freeze the war along the current line of contact as the 'quickest path' to a ceasefire, sent an open letter to Putin (4 June) proposing an immediate front-line ceasefire and a bilateral meeting in a third country, and used the sanctioned oligarch Roman Abramovich as a back-channel to carry the message to the Kremlin. Putin rejected all of it at the St. Petersburg forum, calling the letter 'rude' and reiterating his maximalist demand that Ukraine withdraw from all of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and abandon NATO. With US mediation stalled by Trump's pivot to Iran, the E3 (Britain, France, Germany) moved to the front of the diplomacy: their 7-8 June London summit endorsed Zelensky's call for direct Putin talks and set five peace conditions, and Trump pressed Xi to lean on Moscow rather than mediate himself. ISW's running judgement frames the structural trap: Russia has broken all 17 ceasefires since 2014 and used the May truces to rotate, reinforce and resupply, so the open question by June 2026 is whether any pause can be made enforceable rather than exploited.
The 2026 Midterms & the Fight Over US Elections
The 2026 midterms are being contested on two levels at once: the map and the rules. A 6-3 Supreme Court ruling in Louisiana v. Callais (April) narrowed Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act and triggered a Republican redistricting blitz across Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Tennessee and Florida — worth nearly 2 extra points in the national margin and forcing Democrats to outperform their 2024 result by almost 5 points to retake the House. Simultaneously, the administration is reshaping the machinery of voting: a March executive order creating a federal voter list and directing USPS to deliver mail ballots only to those on it (a federal judge declined to block it as premature), DOJ prosecutors observing slow California counts, demands for voter rolls from 30 states, and a record denaturalization drive (385 shortlisted, USCIS lawyers reassigned to DOJ). Trump openly brands California's count 'rigged' and is pushing the SAVE America proof-of-citizenship Act onto must-pass bills. The countervailing force is the environment: an Atlas poll has Democrats up 54.6-40.1 on the generic ballot amid Iran-war energy costs, and states are litigating back — Newsom signed a law walling off California's rolls. Yet the same map fight cuts both ways: the Virginia Supreme Court killed a voter-approved Democratic map (the US Supreme Court refused to revive it). Inside the GOP, Trump's revenge tour (Cassidy, Massie defeated; Paxton endorsed over Cornyn) is enforcing loyalty at the cost of the fiscal-hawk and anti-war voters a 5-point-disadvantaged majority cannot spare.
Top Stories
Highest-priority developments worldwide
US Imposes 20% Toll on Strait of Hormuz Shipping
Donald Trump declared the United States “guardian” of the Strait of Hormuz and said Washington would be reimbursed 20 percent on all cargo moving through it — the same toll Marco Rubio insisted in June that Iran had no right to levy. Iran answered by closing the strait after its Revolutionary Guard struck the container ship GFS Galaxy; crossings fell to six in two days and Brent closed at $78.82. In Paris, ten countries launched a missile-defence coalition of their own.
Large wildfire in Fontainebleau forest south of Paris suspected arson, burns 800 hectares
A large wildfire in the Fontainebleau forest south of Paris has burned 800 hectares, forcing the closure of the A6 highway and disrupting rail services during a busy holiday weekend. Nearly 400 firefighters and water-bombing planes are battling the blaze, which Interior Minister Laurent Nunez said may have been deliberately set due to multiple ignition points. The fire occurs during a heatwave that has also forced the temporary shutdown of three nuclear power plants. The blaze is of exceptional scale and marks the first time firefighting planes from southern France have been deployed to the Paris region. The wildfire remains uncontained, with a new fire detected, and has now consumed 5% of the forest massif. Record heat on Sunday is giving way to slightly cooler temperatures on Monday in western France, but drought conditions continue to exacerbate the fire risk.
Marine Le Pen convicted of embezzlement, announces 2027 presidential bid amid legal battle
Marine Le Pen was convicted of embezzling EU funds by the Paris Court of Appeal, receiving a 3-year sentence (1 year electronic bracelet), a fine, and a 45-month political ban (30 months suspended). She announced her candidacy for the 2027 presidential election and will appeal to the Court of Cassation. The article profiles likely candidates Le Pen, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and Edouard Philippe, highlighting Le Pen's strong chance of reaching the second round but uncertainty over her opponent.
U.S. Deploys Kamikaze Drone Boats in Combat for First Time, Strikes Iranian Naval Facility
On July 12, 2026, U.S. Central Command used Saronic Corsair unmanned surface vessels (USVs) in a strike role for the first time in combat, hitting a submarine and ship maintenance facility at Iran's Bandar Abbas Naval Base. The attack escalates ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities over control of the Strait of Hormuz, following the collapse of a ceasefire. President Trump announced the U.S. would take over management of the Strait, reinstate a naval blockade on Iranian ports, and impose a 20% toll on cargo. This precedent-setting use of kamikaze USVs marks a new chapter in U.S. naval operations, potentially reducing reliance on crewed aircraft for strikes.
Iran's Strait of Hormuz blockade stalls US nuclear negotiations
Background: The US-Israeli war against Iran has entered its third month with no end in sight, characterized by an indefinite impasse, no good deal possible, Washington losing the initiative, Israel's complicating role, and Iran's asymmetric advantage in defining victory as regime survival. Today: A new analysis argues that Iran's continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz prevents the US from securing nuclear concessions, as Tehran uses its ability to disrupt shipping as leverage. The US military campaign has failed to break the impasse, and the standoff is harming both economies, with Iran facing domestic pressure from economic hardship. The analysis further emphasizes that Iran's blockade remains an effective asymmetric lever that the US cannot neutralize through military strikes, and that Iran has no incentive to reopen the strait before negotiations.
Country Coverage
Daily snapshot across all six nations
Trump Imposes 20% Hormuz Strait Toll as Senate Stalls War Funding
Britain Locks Decade of Commitments Before Burnham Takes Over
Macron's Last Bastille Day: Building Europe the RN Opposes
Merz Buys Tomahawks as US Sets 20% Hormuz Toll
Ukraine War Machine Outgrows State as Mobilization Crisis Deepens
Erdoğan Hosts NATO Summit, Leaves Without F-35 Jets
Cyber Threat Intelligence
Daily snapshot of attack categories, threat actors, and country exposure.
- Web Defacement Mexico 13 Julazraelzer0d4y targets the website of UAM-Iztapalapa
- Web Defacement Iran 13 Julazraelzer0d4y targets the website of Sepehr Translation Bureau
- Ransomware India 13 JulWebosphere falls victim to NightSpire ransomware
- Data Breach France 13 JulAlleged Data Breach of France Pare-Brise
- Market X 22 ev
- NoName057(16) 8 ev
- Trenggalek Cyber Army 8 ev
- KYCMyASS 7 ev
- DragonForce 5 ev
Recent CTI Daily Briefs
Browse past daily cyber threat intelligence briefs.
- 13 July 2026· Latest179eventsKYCMyASS Passport Listings, Turla Sanctions, and AI-Coded AttacksKYCMyASS lists passports from 6 nations; EU sanctions Turla for grid attacks; AI-generated PowerShell and Forg365 PhaaS target Microsoft 365.
- 12 July 2026168eventsFSB-Linked Poland Grid Attack; Telegram 182M User Data Allegedly LeakedRussia blamed for Poland energy cyberattack as UK/EU impose sanctions. Telegram 182M user database alleged leak. Sophia01 targets German firms. UAE entities hit by Exchange Markets.
- 11 July 2026159eventsUAE Real Estate and French Government Sectors Hit in Multi-Actor Data Breach WavExchange Markets targets UAE real estate and healthcare; SUB-ZERO leaks French education data; Qilin, Sophia01 active; Jscrambler supply chain attack.
- 10 July 2026229eventsGentlemen Ransomware Rise, Major Health Data Exposures, and Supply Chain ThreatsToday's brief covers the aggressive expansion of The Gentlemen ransomware, massive alleged breaches in Brazil and US, critical ShareFile vulnerability, and a surge in citizen database sales.
- 9 July 2026230eventsMeta Yadro Legion Strikes Romanian Defense; GigaWiper Backdoor AnalyzedPro-Russian group targets Romanian military institutions. Microsoft details GigaWiper destructive backdoor. GodDamn ransomware uses kernel driver. Interpol arrests 5,800.