The AfD has overtaken every mainstream party — leading nationally at 27% in the ARD-DeutschlandTrend while Merz's government sinks to a record-low 12% satisfaction — and is poised to win its first state premiership in the autumn east-German elections, with INSA finding 69% of Germans now expect it. It polls 41% in Saxony-Anhalt (vote 6 Sept) and 36% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (20 Sept), where it has adopted hardline manifestos demanding a 'border and return police', detention facilities and an explicit 'remigration agenda', and has drafted a 150–200-post plan to staff the state administration. The CDU 'firewall' is cracking on two fronts: at least six non-AfD MPs (likely CDU) backed an AfD candidate in a Bundestag committee vote, while local AfD chapters in Saxony seat members of the openly extremist Free Saxons in their groups despite a formal incompatibility ruling. The pushback is escalating in parallel — a Hanover court let Lower Saxony classify the state AfD as a confirmed extremist case, Brussels' party authority moved to strip the AfD-aligned ESN bloc of EU funding, and politically-motivated crime hit a record ~85,000 offences in 2025.

fr · France Free

The 2027 Presidential Race Begins

The 2027 presidential campaign opened in May–June 2026 as a wide-open contest for the first post-Macron Elysée, the president barred by the two-term limit from standing again. Three poles are already forming. The centre fractured into a duel: Renaissance secretary-general Gabriel Attal (37) was endorsed by the party's National Council 91% (221–22 against a primary), prompting former PM Élisabeth Borne to resign as council chair over his 'direction', and he formally declared on 22 May in Mur-de-Barrez before a 5,000-strong first rally in Paris on 30 May — but his rival Édouard Philippe (Horizons) launched first and has rejected Attal's proposed centre-right 'liaison committee' primary, leaving the bloc split. On the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon (LFI) declared his fourth bid on 3–4 May and held a 26,000-strong first rally in Saint-Denis on 7 June, declaring the left primary 'finished' and pledging a €1,700 minimum wage and retirement at 60 — but he polls only 13–15% and the broader left (Ruffin, Cazeneuve, Glucksmann, the PS) is fragmented and, per an Ipsos/Le Parisien poll, sums to barely a third of the vote with no candidate projected into the runoff. The far-right Rassemblement National leads the first round (Bardella ~34%) but hangs on a 7 July Paris appeals-court verdict on Marine Le Pen's eligibility; her lieutenant Jordan Bardella (30) is already running a shadow campaign — international travel, ambassador meetings, a 95%-complete programme — while the party struggles to secure a €10.5m campaign loan. The organising fear across the centre and right is a first-round elimination producing an LFI-vs-RN runoff, which is driving Attal's unity push, Wauquiez standing aside for LR's Bruno Retailleau (validated by 74% of members), and Beaune's call for a single 'republican' candidate by autumn.

gb · United Kingdom Free

Britain's Leadership Crisis and the Burnham Reset

Andy Burnham has begun his premiership with a visible break from Keir Starmer rather than a managerial handover. Scrapping the digital-ID programme and redirecting its estimated three-year cost toward affordability gives the reset a concrete policy marker, but the government still has to specify how the money will reach households and what identity infrastructure will remain.

tr · Turkey Free

Erdoğan's Crackdown and the CHP Leadership Crisis

The court-driven CHP leadership rupture is hardening into an organizational split. Ozel's New Party is building local structures from resigning CHP members, while the two camps dispute whether hundreds of thousands have left the former main opposition.

ua · Ukraine Free

Russia-Ukraine War: The Ground War & Front Lines

Ukraine recorded 258 combat clashes in one day, including 46 Russian assaults in the Pokrovsk sector. Russian units are preparing motorcycle and quad-bike attacks toward Dobropillia to reduce exposure to Ukrainian drones, trading armour protection for speed and dispersion.

us · United States Free

US-Iran War

Iran has conditioned any full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz on six demands, while Washington is shifting from renewed strikes toward sanctions and economic pressure. The naval closure remains the central bargaining lever, with an Oman shipping arrangement still short of a political settlement.

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Global Briefing August 24

Great Powers Export Constraints to Allies

Washington shifted from a costly Iran war to “economic D-Day” and imposed 50 percent tariffs on Canada; Russia exploited a global Patriot shortage to strike Ukrainian cities; and Gulf powers built the Mecca pact around doubts about US reliability. Great powers are turning their own shortages into pressure that allies and neighbours must absorb.

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us48

Fed credibility erodes as inflation persists and Warsh's communication stumbles

Background: Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh faces market and political pressure over rate policy, with inflation running nearly twice the 2% target and long-term Treasury yields near 20-year highs. Today: The credibility of the Federal Reserve is increasingly questioned as inflation has exceeded its 2% target for over five years, and Warsh's chaotic start—including a poorly received press conference on July 29 that spiked long-term yields—has heightened concerns about the central bank's independence and effectiveness. His upcoming Jackson Hole speech is seen as a critical test, with experts warning of a gradual erosion of Fed credibility. Warsh took office on May 22, and his second press conference on July 29 triggered a sharp market reaction, including a significant rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields. His upcoming Jackson Hole speech on August 28 is seen as crucial, with experts like Patrick Krizan of Allianz Investment Management describing the situation as an 'erosion' rather than an 'implosion' of Fed credibility.

ua48

Ukraine expands long-range drone campaign, accepting rising Russian civilian casualties

Background: Ukraine has intensified long-range drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure and deep into Moscow to reduce Russian revenues and disrupt military production. Today's development: Ukraine has broadened its long-range drone campaign beyond military targets to include oil and gas infrastructure and major logistics hubs like Wildberries, explicitly aiming to bring the war home to Russians. This shift has led to a marked increase in Russian civilian casualties, with 79 killed in July 2026 alone, according to Russian authorities. Ukrainian officials defend the strategy as legitimate economic warfare, while Western analysts warn of risks to international support and note the distinction from Russia's deliberate targeting of Ukrainian civilians.

de48

AfD co-leader Weidel vows to exit euro and Schengen if in government

Alice Weidel, co-leader of Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), announced in a ZDF summer interview that the party would seek Germany's withdrawal from the euro and the Schengen Area, close national borders, and implement stricter migration policies if it enters the federal government. She criticized the CDU's refusal to cooperate with the AfD, claiming it would cost the CDU future elections. The AfD is polling above 40% in Saxony-Anhalt ahead of September 6 state elections and at 27% nationally, ahead of the CDU's 22%. Weidel also reaffirmed opposition to the combustion-engine ban and rejected climate change measures. Co-leader Tino Chrupalla, in a separate ARD interview, downplayed human-caused climate change and called for abolishing postal voting.

gb48

UK PM Burnham visits Kyiv, announces missile technology transfer to Ukraine

Background: UK PM Andy Burnham previously hosted Ukrainian President Zelenskyy in the UK, discussing defense cooperation and sharing electronic warfare technology. Today, on Ukraine's 35th Independence Day, Burnham made his first foreign visit to Kyiv, co-chairing a Coalition of the Willing meeting and meeting President Zelenskyy. He announced that the UK will allow MBDA to declassify information on UK components of the Storm Shadow/Scalp missile, enabling Ukraine to establish local assembly lines for long-range missiles. The move escalates tensions with Russia, which has withdrawn its ambassador to London without a replacement. Burnham also accepted an award on behalf of the British people and attended independence day events. The visit comes amid intensified Russian airstrikes, including a deadly shopping centre attack in Kryvyi Rih, and as Zelenskyy faces domestic political challenges over wartime elections. Burnham reaffirmed UK support amid Ukraine's urgent need for air defenses.

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