Germany is trying to convert money into a credible army faster than the institution can absorb it. Pistorius's 'Responsibility for Europe' strategy — the Bundeswehr's first since 1955 — targets 260,000 active soldiers plus 200,000 reservists (460,000 total) by the mid-2030s, but the force sits at roughly 186,000, barely 800 above a year earlier, so the buildup depends on a voluntary-service questionnaire for every 18-year-old man and a legal trigger to reinstate conscription if recruiting falls short. Readiness, not topline, is the binding constraint: the government has admitted a repair backlog that left under half the PzH 2000 howitzers operational in May and Marder/Boxer fleets stuck in maintenance, while 72% of Germans tell Insa-style polling they doubt the Bundeswehr can defend the country. The clock is set externally — top general Carsten Breuer warns Russia could be capable of a large-scale war against NATO by 2029, and Trump's threatened withdrawal of 5,000 US troops from Vilseck (of ~35,000 in Germany) plus the cancelled intermediate-range missile deployment is forcing Berlin to backfill deep-strike and air-defence gaps it cannot yet fill. The 2027 budget sets defence at €105.8bn (3.1% of GDP), but money lands in a procurement system (BAAINBw) and a recruiting base that have failed to scale for a decade.

fr · France Free

France's Retreat in Africa

France's strategic position in Africa is collapsing on the security front even as Macron stages a managed pivot. On April 29 a joint offensive by the Tuareg-led Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and al-Qaeda affiliate JNIM captured the northern Malian city of Kidal and killed Mali's defence minister Sadio Camara, with the rebels demanding the permanent withdrawal of Russia's Africa Corps — which then evacuated Kidal under rebel escort, a humiliation French FM Jean-Noël Barrot seized on to declare Russia 'largely defeated' in Africa. The vacuum France left behind is being filled by rivals: at the 'Africa Forward' forum Macron openly admitted France has lost ground to China, Türkiye and the US, blaming 'decades of complacency and arrogance.' His answer is a strategic reorientation to Anglophone East Africa — co-hosting the May 11–12 Nairobi summit with Kenya's Ruto, pledging €23bn in investment (€14bn French, €9bn African), a defence pact with Kenya and CMA CGM's €700m for Mombasa port — while conceding France should no longer treat Africa as a 'preserve' of guaranteed contracts. The Sahel juntas continue to push France out: Niger suspended nine French media outlets including AFP, France 24 and RFI; Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso withdrew from La Francophonie. And the colonial-memory front has hardened into law — Algeria enacted legislation criminalising French colonisation (1830–1962) as a 'state crime' enumerating 31 imprescriptible offences, even as Paris simultaneously works to thaw the worst Franco-Algerian crisis since 1962 (ambassador returned after a year-long recall, judicial cooperation restarted).

gb · United Kingdom Free

Starmer's Embattled Premiership

Keir Starmer's grip on power has collapsed into an open succession battle. A catastrophic set of May local elections — more than 1,400 English council seats lost, Bradford, Calderdale, Wakefield, Leeds and Barnsley gone (Barnsley ending 50 years of Labour rule), and Labour third in the Welsh Senedd for the first time in a century — triggered a backbench revolt that grew from 30 to more than 90 MPs publicly demanding his resignation. The challenge has crystallised around three rivals: Health Secretary Wes Streeting, who quit cabinet on 20 May citing lost confidence and is running a shadow leadership campaign; Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham, whom the NEC cleared to contest the 18 June Makerfield by-election as his route into Parliament; and Angela Rayner, freed to stand after HMRC cleared her tax probe. Markets have made the crisis tangible — 30-year gilt yields hit a 1998 high and the pound fell 2.2% in a day on fears of a fiscally looser successor unseating Chancellor Rachel Reeves. Two faultlines run beneath the leadership fight: the Mandelson vetting scandal, whose released files show No 10 described as 'beleaguered and bereft', and a bitter Gaza/Israel split pitting Streeting (who circulated a 22-page dossier of war-crimes evidence) against Starmer and the late Mandelson, who called Streeting's stance 'wild' and 'hysterical'.

tr · Turkey Free

Turkey vs Israel Over Gaza

Turkey's rupture with Israel has hardened into a sustained confrontation fought on three fronts at once: the sea, the Gaza crossings, and Al-Aqsa. The Global Sumud Flotilla, intercepted near Crete on 30 April, regrouped and relaunched from Marmaris on 14 May with 54 boats and activists from 70 countries; one released participant has now given a first-person account of 52 hours on the Israeli landing craft Nahshon alleging beatings, a stabbing and a 'torture container' at Ashdod. On aid, Ankara — the largest provider with 100,000+ tons delivered — accuses Israel of holding Turkish trucks of baby formula and shelter materials for weeks, and Israel's COGAT has ordered the WFP to sever ties with the Turkish charity IHH, cutting support to 166,000 Palestinians. On Jerusalem, Türkiye and seven other states condemned settler incursions at Al-Aqsa and demanded recognition of Jordan's custodianship, and the dispute went personal when Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz attacked Erdoğan and Interior Minister Çiftçi over a 'liberation of Jerusalem' remark. This is a rhetoric-and-pressure war, not a military one: no troops face off, but trade is severed, consulates are under review, and Erdoğan is bidding to lead the Muslim world against Israel.

ua · Ukraine Free

The Search for a Ceasefire

Through spring 2026 Ukraine shifted from demanding full territorial restoration to seeking the fastest possible halt to the fighting, while refusing to legitimise Russia's gains. Zelensky told Sky News he would freeze the war along the current line of contact as the 'quickest path' to a ceasefire, sent an open letter to Putin (4 June) proposing an immediate front-line ceasefire and a bilateral meeting in a third country, and used the sanctioned oligarch Roman Abramovich as a back-channel to carry the message to the Kremlin. Putin rejected all of it at the St. Petersburg forum, calling the letter 'rude' and reiterating his maximalist demand that Ukraine withdraw from all of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and abandon NATO. With US mediation stalled by Trump's pivot to Iran, the E3 (Britain, France, Germany) moved to the front of the diplomacy: their 7-8 June London summit endorsed Zelensky's call for direct Putin talks and set five peace conditions, and Trump pressed Xi to lean on Moscow rather than mediate himself. ISW's running judgement frames the structural trap: Russia has broken all 17 ceasefires since 2014 and used the May truces to rotate, reinforce and resupply, so the open question by June 2026 is whether any pause can be made enforceable rather than exploited.

us · United States Free

The 2026 Midterms & the Fight Over US Elections

The 2026 midterms are being contested on two levels at once: the map and the rules. A 6-3 Supreme Court ruling in Louisiana v. Callais (April) narrowed Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act and triggered a Republican redistricting blitz across Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Tennessee and Florida — worth nearly 2 extra points in the national margin and forcing Democrats to outperform their 2024 result by almost 5 points to retake the House. Simultaneously, the administration is reshaping the machinery of voting: a March executive order creating a federal voter list and directing USPS to deliver mail ballots only to those on it (a federal judge declined to block it as premature), DOJ prosecutors observing slow California counts, demands for voter rolls from 30 states, and a record denaturalization drive (385 shortlisted, USCIS lawyers reassigned to DOJ). Trump openly brands California's count 'rigged' and is pushing the SAVE America proof-of-citizenship Act onto must-pass bills. The countervailing force is the environment: an Atlas poll has Democrats up 54.6-40.1 on the generic ballot amid Iran-war energy costs, and states are litigating back — Newsom signed a law walling off California's rolls. Yet the same map fight cuts both ways: the Virginia Supreme Court killed a voter-approved Democratic map (the US Supreme Court refused to revive it). Inside the GOP, Trump's revenge tour (Cassidy, Massie defeated; Paxton endorsed over Cornyn) is enforcing loyalty at the cost of the fiscal-hawk and anti-war voters a 5-point-disadvantaged majority cannot spare.

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Global Briefing June 22

West Winning Wars, Turning on Itself Over How to End Them

The fighting in both of the world’s biggest wars finally began to stop this week: the US and Iran signed a 60-day roadmap at a Swiss resort, and a senior NATO official concluded Ukraine has cut Crimea off from Russian resupply. But the same days exposed a Western coalition splitting over the peace. António Costa’s secret outreach to Putin enraged Macron and Merz at a phone-free Brussels summit; Poland and Ukraine traded back wartime medals; and JD Vance told Israel that Trump is “your only ally left in the world.” Winning the war is turning out to be the easy part.

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fr48

Europe faces second heatwave in a month with record temperatures and multiple deaths

Background: A heat dome over western Europe drove record-breaking May temperatures across the UK, France, Ireland, Spain, and Italy, with multiple deaths linked to the heatwave and UN climate chief Simon Stiell attributing the extreme heat to fossil fuel burning. New development: A second consecutive heatwave in less than a month has placed 49 of France's 96 mainland departments under red alert, with temperatures reaching 43°C in Bordeaux and 39°C in Paris. Two children aged 2 and 4 were found dead in a car in Carpentras, southern France, with heat suspected as the cause. Three elderly people died near Bordeaux due to heat-related causes, and 13 drowning deaths were reported in France. More than 1,300 schools were closed nationwide, and regional train services around Paris were reduced. Spain issued a red alert for the Basque country, with San Sebastian forecast to reach 40°C. Italy issued red alerts for 12 cities including Rome, Milan, and Florence. The UK Met Office issued a rare red warning for extreme heat in parts of England and Wales for Wednesday and Thursday. Belgium canceled some rush-hour trains due to the heat. Scientists attribute the recurring extreme heat to human-driven climate change.

de46

European E5 Leaders to Meet in Berlin to Coordinate Ukraine Support

Leaders of the E5 group (UK, France, Germany, Italy, Poland) will meet in Berlin on Wednesday to improve coordination for supporting Ukraine against the Russian invasion. The meeting follows a G7 summit where leaders agreed to increase air defense deliveries and sanctions against Russia. NATO chief Mark Rutte will join via video link. The meeting also covers preparations for the NATO summit in Ankara on July 7-8. Ukrainian President Zelensky has called for Europe to do more as US efforts to end the fighting have faded. EU chief Antonio Costa's office has made brief diplomatic contacts with Moscow, though some EU states are wary.

gb46

UK issues rare red extreme heat warning as temperatures may reach 40°C

The UK Met Office issued a rare red weather warning for extreme heat covering London, parts of the Midlands, south-east Wales, and southern England from 9-21 BST on 25-26 June 2025. Temperatures could reach 40°C, close to the UK record of 40.3°C. The UK Health Security Agency issued its second-ever red heat health warning. Significant disruption is expected, including travel delays, school closures, and risks to health and life. The heatwave is part of a broader European heatwave.

ua45

Ukraine strikes Voronezh missile electronics plant and Dubna satellite center in deep Russia

On 22 June 2026, Ukraine's Air Force used high-precision air-launched cruise missiles to strike the Voronezh Semiconductor Devices Plant (VZPP-S) in Voronezh, Russia, which produces electronic components for Iskander and Kh-101 cruise missiles and Pantsir-S1 air defense systems. The attack caused a massive fire and significant damage, with Russian authorities reporting casualties. Separately, Ukrainian forces struck the Dubna satellite communications center in the Moscow region, causing heavy smoke. The strikes are part of Ukraine's ongoing campaign to degrade Russia's military-industrial capacity and reduce its ability to produce precision-guided munitions used against Ukrainian cities.

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