Erdoğan's Crackdown and the CHP Leadership Crisis
Assessment
Erdoğan has used the courts to dismantle the leadership of Turkey's main opposition party from the inside. On 21 May an Ankara appeals court voided the CHP's November 2023 congress on 'absolute nullity' grounds, removing elected chair Özgür Özel and reinstating his predecessor Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu; by 25–26 May a judge had ordered the seizure of CHP headquarters in Ankara, a loyalist trustee was installed, and police stormed the building, dragging Özel out and dispersing protests in Ankara and Izmir with tear gas and water cannon. The party split into rival administrations — Kılıçdaroğlu holding the building and convening the High Disciplinary Board, Özel commanding the parliamentary group and rallying thousands for an immediate primary (an internal CHP poll put approval of his removal at just 11%). The backdrop is jailed Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, the CHP's 2023 presidential pick, facing a sentence reported as high as 2,430 years; a parallel media purge (Tele 1 shut, its editor arrested on espionage charges); and AKP ally Devlet Bahçeli brokering a compromise congress while the opposition warns Erdoğan is engineering a snap election to escape term limits. Erdoğan, who denies any government role, hosts the 7–8 July NATO summit in Ankara as geopolitical cover, betting Western reliance on the Bosphorus and Trump's goodwill will mute criticism.
Theatre
Events
- 1 7 Jun 2026 pivotal Analysts liken Turkey's crisis to the 1997 'post-modern coup'Ankara
An analysis drew parallels between Turkey's crisis under Erdoğan and the 1997 'post-modern coup' (the February 28 process) that ousted Islamist PM Necmettin Erbakan, arguing Erdoğan's strategy of weakening the opposition through legal and media pressure mirrors the military's past tactics. It contended the crackdown — including potential arrests of opposition figures — is unsustainable and could backfire, much as the 1997 coup's architects were eventually sidelined and Erdoğan himself rose from that era's Islamist movement.
The inverted scriptIn 1997 secular institutions pushed out the Islamists; in 2026 Erdoğan — a product of that purged movement — wields the same institutional levers against the secular CHP, a role reversal that exposes the method as the constant and the target as merely switched.Consolidation by law, not tanksThe '1997' label names the technique precisely — coercion via courts, prosecutors and captured media rather than the army, the defining feature that lets Erdoğan claim constitutional cover the 1997 generals never had, and makes the crackdown harder to label a 'coup' abroad.The backfire precedentThe analysis's warning that 1997's architects were later sidelined supplies the opposition's hope — that over-reach against a party with the CHP's institutional depth and the 11% legitimacy gap could, as in 1997, eventually rebound on its authors rather than entrench them. - 2 6 Jun 2026 German SPD delegation visits ousted Özel in Ankara amid arrest fearsAnkara
An SPD delegation — including Alexander Schweitzer, Katarina Barley, Serdar Yüksel and Philipp Türmer — visited ousted CHP chair Özgür Özel in Ankara, where he warned that his arrest would be 'crossing the Rubicon' and said he had risked everything to challenge the autocracy, revealing that other CHP deputies backing him faced threats of arrest and immunity removal. The visit drew unusually heavy Turkish media coverage, with pro-government outlets attacking Özel for 'complaining to Germans'; Schweitzer voiced deep concern and stressed Germany's responsibility as a sister social-democratic party.
Europeanising the caseA sitting SPD delegation visiting Özel turns his survival into a German domestic concern and a Socialist-International matter — the one form of external leverage that could raise the diplomatic cost of arresting him, which is why pro-government media rushed to delegitimise it.'Crossing the Rubicon'Özel framing his potential arrest as an irreversible threshold is a deterrence message — he is signalling that jailing a party leader, unlike removing him by court order, would shatter the 'internal dispute' fiction and force the West to react, raising the price of the next escalation.Immunity-removal threatHis disclosure that allied deputies face stripped immunity points to the next mechanism in the sequence — converting parliamentary protection into prosecutable targets — which would simultaneously shrink the opposition bloc and edge Erdoğan toward the 360-vote arithmetic. - 3 5 Jun 2026 Erdoğan uses Turkey's NATO-summit hosting as cover for the crackdownAnkara
Analysis argued that Erdoğan is leveraging Turkey's hosting of the 7–8 July NATO summit in Ankara — with Trump expected — to shield his legal and political pressure on the CHP from Western criticism, betting allies will prioritise security cooperation over democratic concerns. Critics noted the summit will be held at Erdoğan's palace and that in 2018 most members rejected his request to host over the HDP crackdown, whereas this year the calculus shifted to court a Trump seen as friendly to Erdoğan. The piece described a 'prepared atmosphere' in which further moves against İmamoğlu, Özel or Ankara mayor Mansur Yavaş would meet resignation at home and abroad.
Bosphorus leverageWestern reliance on Turkey's control of the Bosphorus — and its wartime denial of Russian warships to the Black Sea — is the concrete chip Erdoğan cashes in; the summit makes that dependence visible at the exact moment criticism of the CHP takeover would otherwise peak.The 2018-vs-2026 reversalMembers rejecting a Turkish summit in 2018 over the HDP crackdown but granting one in 2026 despite a worse crackdown quantifies how far NATO's bar has dropped — the venue itself, Erdoğan's palace, becomes the trophy that converts a domestic purge into a diplomatic endorsement.Trump as the unlockTailoring the summit to a Trump seen as friendly to Erdoğan is the specific mechanism — a US president disinclined to raise democracy gives the host a free hand, which is why the crackdown's tempo is timed to the weeks bracketing 7–8 July. - 4 1 Jun 2026 Erdoğan denies any government role as DEVA's Babacan warns of democratic collapseAnkara
Speaking after a cabinet meeting, Erdoğan said the government had no involvement in the CHP's internal disputes following the annulment of its 2023 congress, urged actors to focus on the 'Terror-Free Türkiye' initiative, and warned against attempts to 'destabilise the streets.' DEVA Party leader Ali Babacan countered that the appeals court's 'absolute nullity' ruling could persuade the public, especially youth, that democratic change through elections is impossible — driving voter apathy and entrenching authoritarian rule — and stressed the issue threatened the entire political system, not just the CHP.
Deniability as the designErdoğan's 'we have no involvement' is the point of routing the takeover through courts rather than decrees — outsourcing the action to the judiciary lets him claim the CHP split is self-inflicted, the plausible-deniability that distinguishes this crackdown from an overt ban.Babacan widens the frameA former AKP economy minister warning the ruling teaches youth that 'elections are pointless' reframes the damage from one party to systemic legitimacy — coming from a defector, it signals erosion of faith in the ballot itself, the deeper cost beyond the CHP.'Destabilise the streets' as warningErdoğan pairing denial with a threat against street action targets exactly Özel's chosen weapon — the rallies — pre-emptively criminalising the protest response and setting the legal pretext for the kind of dispersal already seen in Ankara and Izmir. - 31 May 2026 pivotal Opposition warns Erdoğan plans a snap election to bypass term limitsTurkey
The CHP warned that President Erdoğan is preparing snap elections to circumvent constitutional term limits, viewing the court's reinstatement of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu as politically motivated. Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu faces a reported 2,430-year sentence. The EU voiced concern. Analysts noted Erdoğan needs 360 MPs to call an early election and may seek opposition votes to reach the threshold, while economic deficits limit his room for pre-vote populist spending.
The 360-vote arithmeticAn early election requires 360 of 600 MPs and the AKP–MHP alliance holds only ~321 — so reaching the threshold means peeling off opposition votes, which reframes the CHP takeover as a hunt for a pliable faction that will supply the missing ~39 votes.Why snap, not amendmentCalling an election before Erdoğan's term ends resets the two-term count without rewriting the constitution — the legally cleaner route to a 2028+ candidacy, which is why the opposition reads every move against it as clearing the path to a vote rather than a referendum.The fiscal constraintAnalysts flagging that deficits cap Erdoğan's pre-election spending is the one brake on the timeline — a snap vote works only if the economy can absorb populist stimulus, tying the political endgame to Turkey's fiscal headroom and explaining the pressure to move while conditions allow. - 5 30 May 2026 Kılıçdaroğlu takes the HQ desk as Özel rallies thousands and demands a primaryAnkara
With the CHP split, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu visited party headquarters for the first time since the ruling, posting a photo at his desk holding the party bylaws, and on 4 June convened the High Disciplinary Board, which began weighing expulsion files against senior Özel allies including Veli Ağbaba. Özgür Özel addressed thousands at an Ankara rally demanding an immediate congress and challenging Kılıçdaroğlu to a primary, offering to resign if he polled under 85%. An internal poll showed just 11% approval of Özel's removal; Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş refused to block the parliamentary group meeting Özel convened, strengthening his hand.
Two parallel administrationsKılıçdaroğlu controlling the building and disciplinary board while Özel controls the parliamentary group and the crowds produces a literal dual power — each claims the seal, so the party functions as two organisations, exactly the paralysis a clean ban could not have achieved.The 11% legitimacy gapAn internal poll showing only 11% back Özel's removal quantifies the reinstated leadership's lack of grassroots mandate — Kılıçdaroğlu holds the courts and the desk but not the members, which is why Özel's primary challenge (resign if under 85%) is a confident bet on his own base.Speaker's procedural rulingKurtulmuş refusing to block Özel's group meeting, on the ground that parliament can't intervene in internal party disputes, hands Özel a procedural foothold the courts tried to deny him — the one state institution that declined to take the government's side became decisive. - 26 May 2026 pivotal Police storm CHP headquarters, drag out Özel, tear-gas protests in Ankara and IzmirAnkara
Turkish police raided the CHP's Ankara headquarters and forcibly removed leader Özgür Özel after the court annulled the 2023 congress and reinstated Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. Protests that erupted in Ankara and Izmir were met with tear gas, water cannon and pepper spray. The opposition and international observers accused Erdoğan of using the judiciary to suppress rivals ahead of possible early elections, deepening Turkey's political crisis.
From court order to physical forcePolice storming the building to extract a sitting party leader converts a paper ruling into a televised act of force — the image of Özel dragged from Atatürk's party HQ is the moment the 'internal party dispute' framing collapses into open state coercion.Two-city dispersalTear gas and water cannon deployed simultaneously in Ankara and Izmir — the CHP's western stronghold — shows the protest response was pre-planned for multiple fronts, the same crowd-control machinery used against the 2025 İmamoğlu protests now turned on the party's defenders.'Ahead of early elections'Observers explicitly linking the raid to snap-election preparation connects the violence to the term-limit endgame — clearing the opposition's leadership now is read as setting the board for a vote Erdoğan needs to reset his two-term cap. - 26 May 2026 Authorities shut opposition broadcaster Tele 1 and arrest its editor on espionage chargesIstanbul
Turkish authorities shut down the opposition television channel Tele 1, seized its headquarters and ordered it auctioned; editor-in-chief Merdan Yanardağ was arrested on espionage charges. The Tele 1 team relocated to YouTube under the name 'Tele 2' to continue broadcasting. The closure fit a broader pattern of media repression, with an estimated 90% of national media already under government control. Separately, DW correspondent Alican Uludağ — detained since February on charges including insulting Erdoğan — had been ordered released by an Ankara court days earlier, with 15 journalists still in custody and Turkey ranked 163rd of 180 on RSF's 2026 press index.
Espionage charge mirrors İmamoğlu'sCharging Yanardağ with 'espionage' — the same exotic frame used against İmamoğlu — shows a deliberate template: recast critics as foreign agents, a category that justifies asset seizure and indefinite detention more easily than ordinary press offences.Seize-and-auction the assetOrdering Tele 1's headquarters auctioned, not just its license pulled, transfers a media asset out of opposition hands permanently — the same dispossession logic (TMSF, kayyum) applied to companies, universities and the CHP building, now to a broadcaster.90% capture, the YouTube escape hatchWith ~90% of national media already state-aligned and Turkey 163rd on RSF's index, the Tele 1 team's pivot to a 'Tele 2' YouTube channel marks where independent journalism survives — on platforms outside the broadcast-license chokepoint the government controls. - 25 May 2026 pivotal Government seizes CHP headquarters and installs a loyalist trusteeAnkara
Erdoğan escalated the crackdown by having a judge order the seizure of CHP headquarters in Ankara and the installation of a loyalist as party leader — effectively taking over the party Atatürk founded. The same day he abruptly closed and reopened Istanbul's Bilgi University. Ousted chair Özgür Özel vowed to resist despite the risk of imprisonment. Observers cast the move as part of Erdoğan's drive to cement power amid favourable international conditions and reported succession planning involving his son Bilal.
The kayyum reaches a national partyCourt-ordering a trustee into the CHP's national headquarters is the first time the 'kayyum' mechanism — built for HDP and CHP city halls since 2016 — is scaled to a country-wide party, a categorical escalation from seizing buildings to seizing the opposition's command structure.Possession of the building as leveragePhysical control of the Ankara HQ lets the installed loyalist claim institutional legitimacy — party seal, accounts, archives — turning a contested court ruling into facts on the ground that Özel can only contest from the street, shifting the fight from law to occupation.Succession contextReporting that ties the takeover to succession planning around Bilal Erdoğan reframes the crackdown as clearing the field not just for 2028 but for a post-Erdoğan handover — neutralising the only party capable of contesting either, which raises the stakes of who controls the CHP machine. - 22 May 2026 Erdoğan revokes Istanbul Bilgi University's license, hitting 20,000 studentsIstanbul
President Erdoğan signed a decree revoking the operating license of Istanbul Bilgi University — a liberal private institution of roughly 20,000 students — effective immediately, following the state's earlier seizure of the university in a money-laundering and tax-fraud probe into parent company Can Holding. Students were ordered transferred to the public Mimar Sinan University and campus protests erupted. Critics tied the move to the expanded powers of the state Savings Deposit Insurance Fund (TMSF), used to pressure independent businesses. Erdoğan reversed the closure three days later after the protests.
TMSF as a coercion toolUsing the Savings Deposit Insurance Fund to seize Can Holding and then a university shows the financial-regulatory state, not just the courts, deployed against independent institutions — the same expanded-trustee logic applied to a company's assets that is applied to the CHP's building.The three-day reversalReopening Bilgi within 72 hours after student protests is a rare retreat that reveals the regime's sensitivity to youth mobilisation specifically — a data point the opposition reads as proof that street pressure, the lever Özel reaches for, can still move Erdoğan.Widening the front to academiaStriking a liberal university mid-crisis broadens the crackdown beyond the CHP to civil-society infrastructure, signalling that the campaign is against the secular opposition's wider ecosystem — students, media, parties — not one party leader. - 22 May 2026 MHP's Bahçeli urges Kılıçdaroğlu to step aside for a compromise congressAnkara
Following the court ruling that reinstated Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli — Erdoğan's coalition partner — called on Kılıçdaroğlu to waive his return and negotiate with Özgür Özel on a compromise candidate for a fresh party congress. Analysts read Bahçeli's intervention as exposing a behind-the-scenes power struggle involving Erdoğan, Justice Minister Gürlek and rival CHP factions, warning the ruling could derail the 'Terror-Free Türkiye' initiative and damage relations with Europe ahead of the NATO summit.
The ally as 'honest broker'Bahçeli — whose People's Alliance with Erdoğan holds ~321 seats — positioning himself as mediator of the opposition's internal dispute is the crackdown's softest face: it lets the government manage who leads the CHP while appearing to de-escalate, the same hand on both the court order and the compromise.Linking the CHP to the PKK fileTying the ruling's fallout to the 'Terror-Free Türkiye' initiative reveals the real currency — Bahçeli signals the opposition's votes may be needed for the Kurdish peace process and constitutional change, making a managed CHP a prerequisite for Erdoğan's wider parliamentary arithmetic.Pre-summit damage controlFlagging harm to Europe ties 'ahead of the NATO summit' shows even Erdoğan's ally worries the takeover's optics could cost the July showcase — an admission that the crackdown's timing against the summit is a live tension inside the alliance, not just opposition spin. - 21 May 2026 pivotal Ankara appeals court voids 2023 CHP congress, ousts Özel, reinstates KılıçdaroğluAnkara
An Ankara regional appeals court ruled the CHP's November 2023 congress invalid on procedural grounds, temporarily removing elected chair Özgür Özel and reinstating his predecessor Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu as interim leader. The decision, framed as 'absolute nullity' and subject to appeal, instantly fractured Turkey's main opposition. A legal analysis the following day flagged contradictions — the court annulled future congresses without a specific lawsuit, mixed 'absolute nullity' with ordinary annulment, and issued an interim injunction without meeting the legal criteria.
Reinstall the weaker rivalThe ruling does not ban the CHP — it reinstates the 13-year incumbent the party voted out in 2023, engineering a leadership the membership already rejected, a subtler kill than dissolution because it lets the government claim the split is the opposition's own internal affair.'Absolute nullity' as a multiplierChoosing the 'absolute nullity' doctrine over ordinary annulment is the legally aggressive move flagged by analysts — it purports to void not just the 2023 congress but the legitimacy of everything that followed, maximising the chaos a single ruling can inflict.Appealable but immediately operativeThe interim injunction takes effect at once while the appeal drags, so the court reorders the opposition's leadership in real time regardless of the final outcome — the procedural design ensures the damage is done before any higher court can review it. - 11 May 2026 CHP mayor confesses €1m nomination payment as İmamoğlu espionage trial opensIstanbul
Arrested Antalya mayor Muhittin Böcek confessed to paying €1 million to CHP leadership to secure his election nomination, corroborated by his son Gökhan, who said he delivered the cash in a backpack to party headquarters on instructions from chair Özgür Özel and lawmaker Veli Ağbaba, who allegedly asked the sum be rounded to €1 million; the party later sought a further TL 8 million. The same day, the first hearing opened in the 'political espionage' case against İmamoğlu, with prosecutors alleging he passed Turkish citizens' data to foreign intelligence, citing MIT reports of links to former UK, US and Israeli intelligence figures.
Confession aimed at the party chairBöcek's son naming Özel and Ağbaba as the recipients of cash 'at party headquarters' is the first time the bribe pipeline reaches the sitting national leadership — it is the evidentiary bridge from prosecuting mayors to delegitimising the 2023 congress that elected Özel.Espionage as the escalation gearAdding a 'political espionage' charge — foreign-intelligence data transfer backed by MIT reports — shifts İmamoğlu from a corruption defendant to a national-security one, a category that is harder to defend publicly and carries the headline sentence figures used to justify keeping him jailed.The €1m round numberThe specific demand to 'round to €1 million' plus a follow-up TL 8 million request is the kind of concrete, quotable detail engineered to dominate pro-government coverage and frame the CHP itself — not just individual mayors — as a pay-to-play machine ahead of the leadership ruling. - 11 May 2026 Özel accuses justice minister Gürlek of wiretapping ErdoğanTurkey
CHP leader Özgür Özel publicly accused Justice Minister Akın Gürlek of illegally wiretapping President Erdoğan using a cryptophone and recording past conversations, and of attempting to alter land-registry records. The accusations came amid mounting legal pressure on CHP mayors. The government did not address the claims, while judicial probes against the opposition continued.
Counter-attack on the prosecutor-in-chiefBy targeting Gürlek — the minister overseeing the courts running the CHP cases — Özel tries to discredit the source of the prosecutions rather than defend each charge, betting that an accusation Erdoğan himself was surveilled splits the government's own security apparatus.Cryptophone specificityAlleging a 'cryptophone' wiretap of the president is a deliberately concrete, sensational claim designed to force a denial and dominate a news cycle — a defensive media play by a leader who, ten days later, would be stripped of his office by a court answerable to the very ministry he accused.Government silence as tellThe cabinet declining to engage while probes against the opposition accelerated signals the asymmetry of the fight — Özel's allegations generate headlines but no investigation, whereas the state's allegations generate detentions, the gap that defines the whole crackdown. - 8 May 2026 Police detain 29 Istanbul municipality officials in expanding İmamoğlu probeIstanbul
Turkish police detained 29 suspects — including the deputy secretary-general of the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality — in a corruption investigation into the municipal landscaping company Tree and Landscape Inc., alleging a fictitious-tender system that manipulated public procurement. Prosecutors named former mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu as the alleged leader of the criminal organisation; the CHP denounced the case as designed to block his presidential candidacy. The sweep widened the next day with 12 more detentions over bid-rigging, plus separate probes hitting Üsküdar and Denizli's Merkezefendi municipalities.
Tender-rigging as the recurring chargeA 'fictitious tender' alleged at a landscaping subsidiary is the standardised template — bid-rigging at municipal companies — reused across Istanbul, Üsküdar and Denizli, letting prosecutors keep one continuous 'criminal organisation' narrative running rather than separate local cases.Detaining the administrative spineTargeting the deputy secretary-general, the municipality's senior bureaucrat, paralyses Istanbul's CHP administration operationally, not just politically — it removes the official who keeps the country's largest city budget running, raising the cost of holding the mayoralty even with İmamoğlu jailed.Geographic fan-outSame-week detentions in Üsküdar and Merkezefendi show the probe deliberately spread beyond Istanbul to multiple CHP municipalities, manufacturing the impression of party-wide criminality that later underwrites the move against the national leadership. - 28 Apr 2026 İmamoğlu alleges torture in court as 414-defendant case proceeds in SilivriSilivri, Istanbul
Jailed Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu entered allegations of torture and ill-treatment into the court record at the 28 April hearing of the 'İmamoğlu Criminal Organisation' case in Silivri, saying he and colleagues were denied food and water for five days after their 19 March 2025 detention and accusing prosecutor Cahit Cihat Sarı of abusive language at Çağlayan Courthouse. Cooperating witness Adem Soytekin testified that an unnamed Ankara politician had phoned the prosecutor on his behalf and described a system of contractor bribes routed to municipal managers. The trial spans 414 defendants, with İmamoğlu facing up to 2,352 years on 142 charges.
Decapitating the 2028 ticketİmamoğlu was the CHP's presidential candidate; a 414-defendant indictment carrying 2,352 years removes him from the 2028 race and supplies the 'criminal organisation' frame later used to justify seizing the party itself — the trial is the legal engine of the whole takeover, not a sideshow.Torture claim vs. judicial independenceLogging a five-day food-and-water deprivation claim and naming prosecutor Sarı puts the conduct of the prosecution on the record — the defence's strategy is to attack the case's legitimacy, since a politicised process is harder to enforce internationally than a clean conviction.Cooperating-witness architectureSoytekin's testimony about an unnamed Ankara politician phoning the prosecutor exposes how the case is built on cooperating witnesses describing a contractor-bribe pipeline; the same confession template (cash to 'party headquarters') is what later implicates the CHP's national leadership, linking İmamoğlu's prosecution to the party-level charges.
Background
The CHP (Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi) is Turkey's oldest party, founded by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk and the institutional carrier of the republic's secular, Kemalist tradition — which makes a state takeover of its headquarters uniquely symbolic. At its 38th Ordinary Convention on 4–5 November 2023, Özgür Özel defeated 13-year incumbent Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu in a second-round landslide to become the party's eighth leader, a generational handover blessed by Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, who chaired the congress presidium. It is the legitimacy of that very congress — the corpus timeline's Ankara appeals court voided it on 21 May 2026 on 'absolute nullity' grounds — that has been weaponised to reverse the handover and reinstall the weaker predecessor.
The crisis traces to 19 March 2025, when İmamoğlu — about to be named the CHP's presidential candidate — was detained on corruption, bribery, money-laundering, espionage and terrorism allegations; the day before, Istanbul University annulled his degree, which a presidential run constitutionally requires. He was jailed pending trial on 23 March 2025, triggering Turkey's largest protests in over a decade, met with tear gas and water cannon. The Council of Europe and Human Rights Watch called the case politically motivated; in this fictional corpus the prosecution has metastasised into a 414-defendant 'criminal organisation' indictment and a separate 'political espionage' trial, with reported sentence exposure cited as high as 2,430 years — the legal scaffolding on which the party takeover is built.
Erdoğan's instrument is the 'kayyum' (state trustee) mechanism: Decree 674 of September 2016, passed under post-coup emergency rule, lets governors replace elected mayors merely under investigation for terrorism links. From 2016 to 2019 trustees were imposed on 101 municipalities — 94 of them run by the pro-Kurdish HDP, including Diyarbakır, Van and Mardin; after the March 2024 local elections the practice spread to CHP-held towns. The corpus's seizure of CHP national headquarters and installation of a loyalist 'party leader' is the same logic scaled up from city halls to a national party for the first time — replacing an elected leadership with an appointee through a court order rather than a ballot.
Under the 2017 presidential constitution Erdoğan is capped at two terms and cannot stand again in 2028 — unless parliament calls an early election before his term ends, which resets the count. Both a snap election and a constitutional rewrite need 360 of 600 MPs; the AKP–MHP People's Alliance holds roughly 321, leaving Erdoğan short and dependent on splintering or co-opting the opposition. MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli has publicly pushed since 2023 for an amendment to let Erdoğan run again, framing his current call for Kılıçdaroğlu to broker a 'compromise' CHP congress as statesmanship. In the corpus, the opposition reads the whole sequence — court rulings, the HQ seizure, Bahçeli's mediation — as manufacturing the parliamentary arithmetic to bypass the 2028 limit.