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Today 11 June Briefing Read full brief

Trump can't end his war, so he's changing the subject

This was the week the Iran war stopped being a foreign-policy story for Americans and became a domestic one: inflation hit a three-year high of 4.2%, petrol is up 39% since the fighting began, and a hundred days in the average household is $750 poorer. The economy is somehow still adding jobs. But unable to end the war that is driving the prices, the president spent the week fighting on every other front instead — his own last election, naturalised citizens, China, and the spy law that briefs him each morning.

Key Indicators
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33 key official events ahead
June 2026
Summit
G7 Leaders' Summit — Évian-les-Bains, France

52nd G7 summit, June 15–17 in Haute-Savoie, France; the US president attends. Agenda spans Ukraine, trade/tariffs, the economy and security.

Central Bank
FOMC interest-rate decision (June 16–17 meeting)

Federal Open Market Committee policy statement at 2:00pm ET on the second day of the two-day meeting, with updated Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) and a 2:30pm Chair press conference.

July 2026
Statistics
Employment Situation — June 2026 data (jobs report)

BLS nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for June 2026, 8:30am ET. Released a day early ahead of the July 4 holiday.

Summit
NATO Summit — Ankara, Türkiye

36th NATO summit, July 7–8 at the Beştepe presidential complex in Ankara; the US president attends. Defence-spending targets, Ukraine support and burden-sharing dominate.

Statistics
CPI release — June 2026 data

BLS Consumer Price Index for June 2026, 8:30am ET. Headline and core inflation print ahead of the late-July Fed meeting.

Central Bank
FOMC interest-rate decision (July 28–29 meeting)

FOMC policy statement at 2:00pm ET on the second meeting day, followed by a 2:30pm Chair press conference. No new economic projections at this meeting.

Statistics
GDP — Q2 2026 advance estimate (BEA)

First (advance) estimate of second-quarter 2026 real GDP growth from the BEA, 8:30am ET.

August 2026
Statistics
Employment Situation — July 2026 data (jobs report)

BLS nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for July 2026, 8:30am ET.

Statistics
CPI release — July 2026 data

BLS Consumer Price Index for July 2026, 8:30am ET.

September 2026
Statistics
Employment Situation — August 2026 data (jobs report)

BLS nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for August 2026, 8:30am ET, ahead of the mid-September Fed meeting.

Statistics
CPI release — August 2026 data

BLS Consumer Price Index for August 2026, 8:30am ET — last CPI print before the September Fed decision.

Central Bank
FOMC interest-rate decision (September 15–16 meeting)

FOMC policy statement at 2:00pm ET on the second meeting day, with an updated Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) and a 2:30pm Chair press conference.

Statistics
GDP — Q2 2026 third estimate (BEA)

Third (final) estimate of Q2 2026 GDP plus corporate profits and state-level data, 8:30am ET.

October 2026
Statistics
Employment Situation — September 2026 data (jobs report)

BLS nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for September 2026, 8:30am ET.

Statistics
CPI release — September 2026 data

BLS Consumer Price Index for September 2026, 8:30am ET.

Central Bank
FOMC interest-rate decision (October 27–28 meeting)

FOMC policy statement at 2:00pm ET on the second meeting day, followed by a 2:30pm Chair press conference. No new economic projections at this meeting.

Statistics
GDP — Q3 2026 advance estimate (BEA)

First (advance) estimate of third-quarter 2026 real GDP growth from the BEA, 8:30am ET.

November 2026
Election
US midterm elections — House, one-third of Senate, governorships

All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are contested (including Florida and Ohio special elections), alongside 36 governorships. Determines control of the 120th Congress.

Statistics
Employment Situation — October 2026 data (jobs report)

BLS nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for October 2026, 8:30am ET.

Statistics
CPI release — October 2026 data

BLS Consumer Price Index for October 2026, 8:30am ET.

Statistics
GDP — Q3 2026 second estimate (BEA)

Second estimate of Q3 2026 GDP plus corporate profits, 8:30am ET.

December 2026
Statistics
Employment Situation — November 2026 data (jobs report)

BLS nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for November 2026, 8:30am ET, ahead of the December Fed meeting.

Central Bank
FOMC interest-rate decision (December 8–9 meeting)

Final FOMC meeting of 2026; policy statement at 2:00pm ET on the second day, with an updated Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) and a 2:30pm Chair press conference.

Summit
G20 Leaders' Summit — Miami (Doral), United States

United States hosts the G20 leaders' summit December 14–15 at Trump National Doral, Miami, capping the US G20 presidency year.

Statistics
CPI release — November 2026 data

BLS Consumer Price Index for November 2026, 8:30am ET. Released later than the usual mid-month slot under the revised 2026 schedule.

Statistics
GDP — Q3 2026 third estimate (BEA)

Third (final) estimate of Q3 2026 GDP plus corporate profits and state-level data, 8:30am ET.

January 2027
Statistics
Employment Situation — December 2026 data (jobs report)

BLS nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for December 2026, with annual benchmark revisions. (Provisional — exact 2027 monthly date not yet published by BLS.)

Statistics
CPI release — December 2026 data

BLS Consumer Price Index for December 2026, completing the 2026 inflation picture. (Provisional — exact 2027 monthly date not yet published by BLS.)

Central Bank
FOMC interest-rate decision (January 26–27 2027 meeting)

First FOMC decision of 2027 (tentative schedule announced Sept 2025); policy statement at 2:00pm ET on the second meeting day with a 2:30pm Chair press conference.

Statistics
GDP — Q4 2026 advance estimate (BEA)

First (advance) estimate of fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 GDP. (Provisional — exact 2027 date not yet published by BEA; date estimated from the usual late-January cadence.)

March 2027
Central Bank
FOMC interest-rate decision (March 16–17 2027 meeting)

2027 FOMC decision (tentative schedule); statement at 2:00pm ET on the second day with an updated Summary of Economic Projections and a 2:30pm Chair press conference.

April 2027
Central Bank
FOMC interest-rate decision (April 27–28 2027 meeting)

2027 FOMC decision (tentative schedule); policy statement at 2:00pm ET on the second meeting day with a 2:30pm Chair press conference.

June 2027
Central Bank
FOMC interest-rate decision (June 8–9 2027 meeting)

2027 FOMC decision (tentative schedule); statement at 2:00pm ET on the second day with an updated Summary of Economic Projections and a 2:30pm Chair press conference.

United States

Recent events

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us48

US inflation hits 4.2% in May, highest in three years, as Iran war drives energy costs

The US annual inflation rate rose to 4.2% in May, the highest in three years, driven by energy costs linked to the US-Israel war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump said "I love the inflation," later clarifying he meant the numbers were lower than anticipated. The rise poses a political challenge ahead of midterm elections and may pressure the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Trump insisted inflation would drop after the Iran war ends. The data also challenges new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who may face pressure to raise rates despite Trump's calls for lower borrowing costs. The inflation trend could force the White House to accept a less favorable deal in Iran.

Show summary

The US annual inflation rate rose to 4.2% in May, the highest in three years, driven by energy costs linked to the US-Israel war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump said "I love the inflation," later clarifying he meant the numbers were lower than anticipated. The rise poses a political challenge ahead of midterm elections and may pressure the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Trump insisted inflation would drop after the Iran war ends. The data also challenges new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who may face pressure to raise rates despite Trump's calls for lower borrowing costs. The inflation trend could force the White House to accept a less favorable deal in Iran.

us45

US Embassy warns Americans in Jordan of aerial threats amid escalating US-Iran tensions

Background: The US Mission to the UAE previously warned of potential aerial threats from Iran-linked attacks, relocating non-emergency personnel. Today, the US Embassy in Jordan issued a security alert about missiles, drones, or rockets in Jordanian airspace, urging Americans to seek shelter, as tensions escalate after US strikes on Iran and Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. On June 11, 2026, the US Embassy in Jordan issued a security alert warning American citizens of missiles, drones, or rockets entering Jordanian airspace, urging immediate shelter. This follows US strikes on southern Iran after Iran downed a US Army Apache helicopter and Tehran's announcement of closing the Strait of Hormuz to all vessels.

Show summary

Background: The US Mission to the UAE previously warned of potential aerial threats from Iran-linked attacks, relocating non-emergency personnel. Today, the US Embassy in Jordan issued a security alert about missiles, drones, or rockets in Jordanian airspace, urging Americans to seek shelter, as tensions escalate after US strikes on Iran and Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. On June 11, 2026, the US Embassy in Jordan issued a security alert warning American citizens of missiles, drones, or rockets entering Jordanian airspace, urging immediate shelter. This follows US strikes on southern Iran after Iran downed a US Army Apache helicopter and Tehran's announcement of closing the Strait of Hormuz to all vessels.

us43

Iran says US strike hits its cargo barge off Oman, crew rescued

Iran reported that a US projectile struck an Iranian cargo barge in the Gulf of Oman early Thursday, about five nautical miles off the Omani port of Khasab. The 150-tonne vessel, owned by locals from Sirik and carrying essential goods, had all five crew members rescued by passing vessels and taken to Oman. This incident marks a direct confrontation between US and Iranian forces in the region, escalating tensions.

Show summary

Iran reported that a US projectile struck an Iranian cargo barge in the Gulf of Oman early Thursday, about five nautical miles off the Omani port of Khasab. The 150-tonne vessel, owned by locals from Sirik and carrying essential goods, had all five crew members rescued by passing vessels and taken to Oman. This incident marks a direct confrontation between US and Iranian forces in the region, escalating tensions.

us40

US surveillance authority Section 702 faces lapse amid partisan standoff over intel chief appointment

Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, a critical intelligence-gathering tool providing over half of the President's Daily Brief, is at risk of expiring due to a congressional impasse. Democrats refuse to reauthorize unless President Trump reverses his appointment of Bill Pulte as acting Director of National Intelligence, citing his lack of experience. The lapse would create legal uncertainty for intelligence agencies and telecom companies.

Show summary

Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, a critical intelligence-gathering tool providing over half of the President's Daily Brief, is at risk of expiring due to a congressional impasse. Democrats refuse to reauthorize unless President Trump reverses his appointment of Bill Pulte as acting Director of National Intelligence, citing his lack of experience. The lapse would create legal uncertainty for intelligence agencies and telecom companies.

us39

Defense Secretary Hegseth removes officers from Navy flag promotion list in unprecedented move

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth removed nine officers from the fiscal 2027 Navy O-7 Flag promotion list, including all women and several minorities selected by a merit-based board. No reason was given, but reports suggest a link to past association with diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives. The action is unprecedented in recent decades and has sparked concerns about politicization of military promotions and loss of trust in the institution.

Show summary

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth removed nine officers from the fiscal 2027 Navy O-7 Flag promotion list, including all women and several minorities selected by a merit-based board. No reason was given, but reports suggest a link to past association with diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives. The action is unprecedented in recent decades and has sparked concerns about politicization of military promotions and loss of trust in the institution.

us38

US Vice President Vance publicly criticizes Netanyahu, says Israeli and US interests diverge

Background: Tensions have emerged between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump over the conduct of the war against Iran, with Trump sidelining Israel from peace talks and publicly rebuking Netanyahu over strikes on Lebanon. Today: US Vice President JD Vance publicly criticized Netanyahu, stating that Israeli interests do not always align with US interests and that the administration must prioritize the American people. Vance declined to provide specific examples but acknowledged that Netanyahu 'has gotten some things wrong.' The remarks follow Trump's reported use of profanity toward Netanyahu and frustration over Israeli operations in Lebanon that have threatened US-Iran ceasefire negotiations. The comments reflect growing US public discontent with the Iran war and domestic political pressure ahead of US midterm elections.

Show summary

Background: Tensions have emerged between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump over the conduct of the war against Iran, with Trump sidelining Israel from peace talks and publicly rebuking Netanyahu over strikes on Lebanon. Today: US Vice President JD Vance publicly criticized Netanyahu, stating that Israeli interests do not always align with US interests and that the administration must prioritize the American people. Vance declined to provide specific examples but acknowledged that Netanyahu 'has gotten some things wrong.' The remarks follow Trump's reported use of profanity toward Netanyahu and frustration over Israeli operations in Lebanon that have threatened US-Iran ceasefire negotiations. The comments reflect growing US public discontent with the Iran war and domestic political pressure ahead of US midterm elections.

us36

US becomes world's largest oil exporter amid Iran war and global energy shifts

The United States has become the world's largest oil exporter, surpassing Saudi Arabia and Russia, driven by the US-Iran war disrupting Saudi exports, Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil, and US sanctions on Russia. US crude and fuel exports reached about 10.5 million barrels per day in May 2026. This shift gives Washington significant new leverage in global energy markets and could weaken OPEC's pricing power. European and Asian countries are increasingly reliant on US oil.

Show summary

The United States has become the world's largest oil exporter, surpassing Saudi Arabia and Russia, driven by the US-Iran war disrupting Saudi exports, Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil, and US sanctions on Russia. US crude and fuel exports reached about 10.5 million barrels per day in May 2026. This shift gives Washington significant new leverage in global energy markets and could weaken OPEC's pricing power. European and Asian countries are increasingly reliant on US oil.

us35

Trump claims US sneaked 100 million barrels of oil out of Strait of Hormuz; analysis casts doubt

President Trump claimed the US military secretly moved 100 million barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, defying Iran's restrictions. However, analysis of shipping data from Windward, Lloyd's List, and Kpler shows far fewer transits than would be needed to support that volume. Many vessels that passed did so with Iranian authorization, paying fees to the IRGC. The US energy secretary said he was unaware of such a large-scale operation, and experts note the claim is mathematically inconsistent with available evidence.

Show summary

President Trump claimed the US military secretly moved 100 million barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, defying Iran's restrictions. However, analysis of shipping data from Windward, Lloyd's List, and Kpler shows far fewer transits than would be needed to support that volume. Many vessels that passed did so with Iranian authorization, paying fees to the IRGC. The US energy secretary said he was unaware of such a large-scale operation, and experts note the claim is mathematically inconsistent with available evidence.

Frequently Asked

5
What is the current US inflation rate in May?
Inflation reached 4.2% in May, the highest in three years, driven largely by energy costs.
How much has petrol increased since the Iran war escalated?
Petrol averages $4.15 a gallon, up 39% from $2.98 the day before the fighting escalated.
What is the Strait of Hormuz's role in the war?
The Strait of Hormuz remains shut, disrupting about a fifth of the world's oil supply, causing higher prices.
How has the US job market performed during the war?
Employers added 172,000 jobs in May, more than double expectations, and unemployment held at 4.3%.
What actions has Trump taken to change the subject from the war?
Trump repeated false claims about California's election, launched a denaturalization drive, widened the trade war on China, and let Section 702 surveillance law near expiry.