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Merz bets Germany's future on going it alone — and the bill lands first

Friedrich Merz has made his choice: a Germany less dependent on an America it no longer trusts. This week he absorbed the loss of 5,000 US troops pulled out over his criticism of the Iran war, killed the €100bn FCAS fighter jet with France, and offered Ukraine a seat inside the EU. It is a coherent bet on strategic autonomy. The catch is that the costs are arriving at home — a suspected extremist arson that blacked out 40,000 homes, and a record 85,837 politically motivated crimes — before the autonomy does.

Key Indicators
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29 key official events ahead
June 2026
Statistics
Destatis: final consumer price index, May 2026

Final May 2026 inflation reading confirming the +2.6% year-on-year flash estimate, with the detailed CPI/HICP breakdown by category.

Statistics
Destatis: preliminary consumer price index, June 2026

Flash estimate of June 2026 inflation, released two to three working days before month-end ahead of the final reading. (provisional date — exact day not yet posted by Destatis)

Statistics
Federal Employment Agency labour-market report, June 2026

Monthly unemployment and employment figures for June 2026, published around month-end. (provisional date — exact day not yet posted by the agency)

July 2026
Summit
NATO Summit, Ankara

36th NATO summit, hosted by Türkiye on 7-8 July 2026 at the Beştepe Presidential Compound; heads of state and government, including the German Chancellor, address defence-spending targets, Ukraine support and deterrence posture.

Statistics
Destatis: final consumer price index, June 2026

Final June 2026 inflation reading with the full CPI/HICP category breakdown. (provisional date — exact mid-month day not yet posted by Destatis)

Central Bank
ECB Governing Council monetary policy decision (July 2026)

Scheduled Governing Council monetary policy meeting; rate decision at 14:15 CET and press conference at 14:45 CET.

Statistics
Destatis: preliminary consumer price index, July 2026

Flash estimate of July 2026 inflation, released near month-end. (provisional date — exact day not yet posted by Destatis)

August 2026
Statistics
Destatis: final consumer price index, July 2026

Final July 2026 inflation reading with detailed category breakdown. (provisional date — exact mid-month day not yet posted by Destatis)

Statistics
Destatis: preliminary consumer price index, August 2026

Flash estimate of August 2026 inflation, released near month-end. (provisional date — exact day not yet posted by Destatis)

September 2026
Election
Saxony-Anhalt state election (Landtag)

Election to the Landtag of Saxony-Anhalt; a closely watched eastern-state contest given strong AfD polling, with national coalition-stability implications.

Central Bank
ECB Governing Council monetary policy decision (September 2026)

Scheduled Governing Council monetary policy meeting; rate decision at 14:15 CET, press conference at 14:45 CET. Accompanied by the updated ECB staff macroeconomic projections.

Statistics
Destatis: final consumer price index, August 2026

Final August 2026 inflation reading with full category breakdown. (provisional date — exact mid-month day not yet posted by Destatis)

Election
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (Landtag)

Election to the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern; an eastern-state vote held the same day as the Berlin election, with AfD and SPD strength in focus.

Election
Berlin state election (Abgeordnetenhaus)

Election of the 20th Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin and the district assemblies; a major city-state contest shaping governance of the capital.

Parliament
Bundestag first reading of the 2027 federal budget

Opening Bundestag debate on the draft Bundeshaushalt 2027, traditionally held in a September sitting week after the summer recess and including the headline general-policy debate on the Chancellery budget. (provisional date — 2027 budget timetable not yet officially fixed)

Statistics
Destatis: preliminary consumer price index, September 2026

Flash estimate of September 2026 inflation, released near month-end. (provisional date — exact day not yet posted by Destatis)

October 2026
Statistics
Destatis: final consumer price index, September 2026

Final September 2026 inflation reading with detailed breakdown. (provisional date — exact mid-month day not yet posted by Destatis)

Central Bank
ECB Governing Council monetary policy decision (October 2026)

Scheduled Governing Council monetary policy meeting; rate decision at 14:15 CET, press conference at 14:45 CET.

Statistics
Destatis: preliminary consumer price index, October 2026

Flash estimate of October 2026 inflation, released near month-end. (provisional date — exact day not yet posted by Destatis)

November 2026
Statistics
Destatis: final consumer price index, October 2026

Final October 2026 inflation reading with full category breakdown. (provisional date — exact mid-month day not yet posted by Destatis)

Statistics
Destatis: preliminary consumer price index, November 2026

Flash estimate of November 2026 inflation, released near month-end. (provisional date — exact day not yet posted by Destatis)

Parliament
Bundestag final reading and adoption of the 2027 federal budget

Concluding budget week with the second and third readings and final vote on the Haushaltsgesetz 2027, customarily late November. (provisional date — 2027 budget timetable not yet officially fixed)

December 2026
Statistics
Destatis: final consumer price index, November 2026

Final November 2026 inflation reading with detailed breakdown. (provisional date — exact mid-month day not yet posted by Destatis)

Central Bank
ECB Governing Council monetary policy decision (December 2026)

Final scheduled Governing Council monetary policy meeting of 2026; rate decision at 14:15 CET, press conference at 14:45 CET, with updated ECB staff projections.

January 2027
Statistics
Destatis: preliminary consumer price index, December 2026 (full-year 2026)

Flash estimate of December 2026 inflation and the first read on the full-year 2026 average inflation rate. (provisional date — exact day not yet posted by Destatis)

February 2027
Central Bank
ECB Governing Council monetary policy decision (February 2027)

First scheduled Governing Council monetary policy meeting of 2027; rate decision at 14:15 CET, press conference at 14:45 CET.

March 2027
Central Bank
ECB Governing Council monetary policy decision (March 2027)

Scheduled Governing Council monetary policy meeting with updated ECB staff macroeconomic projections; rate decision at 14:15 CET, press conference at 14:45 CET.

April 2027
Central Bank
ECB Governing Council monetary policy decision (April 2027)

Scheduled Governing Council monetary policy meeting; rate decision at 14:15 CET, press conference at 14:45 CET.

June 2027
Central Bank
ECB Governing Council monetary policy decision (June 2027)

Scheduled Governing Council monetary policy meeting with updated ECB staff projections; rate decision at 14:15 CET, press conference at 14:45 CET.

Germany

Recent events

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de44

German Chancellor Merz proposes EU associate membership for Ukraine

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, in a June 11 Bundestag speech ahead of an EU summit, proposed creating an EU associate membership for Ukraine that would allow Kyiv to participate in EU summits, have a commissioner in Brussels, and send lawmakers to the European Parliament, all without voting rights. He stressed full membership remains conditional on meeting accession criteria. Merz also reaffirmed Germany's long-term support for Ukraine, announced work on a 21st EU sanctions package against Russia, and called for higher EU defense spending. The proposal drew criticism from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who insisted on full and equal membership.

Show summary

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, in a June 11 Bundestag speech ahead of an EU summit, proposed creating an EU associate membership for Ukraine that would allow Kyiv to participate in EU summits, have a commissioner in Brussels, and send lawmakers to the European Parliament, all without voting rights. He stressed full membership remains conditional on meeting accession criteria. Merz also reaffirmed Germany's long-term support for Ukraine, announced work on a 21st EU sanctions package against Russia, and called for higher EU defense spending. The proposal drew criticism from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who insisted on full and equal membership.

de41

German coalition calls for tighter secrecy rules over AfD-Russia contacts

Background: In June 2025, German AfD lawmakers Markus Frohnmaier and Steffen Kotré attended the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), drawing criticism from German politicians who warned of espionage risks. During the forum, Frohnmaier met Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller and Putin's investment envoy Kirill Dmitriev, both under Western sanctions, while former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder also met Putin. Now, Germany's ruling coalition parties, CDU/CSU and SPD, are considering tighter security measures in parliament to protect classified information after the AfD delegation's trip. CDU/CSU parliamentary secretary Steffen Bilger and SPD interior politician Sebastian Fiedler warned of espionage and influence risks, calling for a review of parliamentary secrecy rules.

Show summary

Background: In June 2025, German AfD lawmakers Markus Frohnmaier and Steffen Kotré attended the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), drawing criticism from German politicians who warned of espionage risks. During the forum, Frohnmaier met Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller and Putin's investment envoy Kirill Dmitriev, both under Western sanctions, while former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder also met Putin. Now, Germany's ruling coalition parties, CDU/CSU and SPD, are considering tighter security measures in parliament to protect classified information after the AfD delegation's trip. CDU/CSU parliamentary secretary Steffen Bilger and SPD interior politician Sebastian Fiedler warned of espionage and influence risks, calling for a review of parliamentary secrecy rules.

de38

German Chancellor Merz Signals Support for Tougher EU Trade Measures on China

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has indicated openness to EU proposals for tougher trade measures against China, citing unfair trade practices and industrial overcapacity. Germany's trade deficit with China has reached €90 billion, contributing to job losses in manufacturing. The EU is considering an overcapacity instrument and additional trade measures, while France plans a G7-China call to address macroeconomic imbalances.

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German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has indicated openness to EU proposals for tougher trade measures against China, citing unfair trade practices and industrial overcapacity. Germany's trade deficit with China has reached €90 billion, contributing to job losses in manufacturing. The EU is considering an overcapacity instrument and additional trade measures, while France plans a G7-China call to address macroeconomic imbalances.

de33

German Ethics Council Rejects Blanket Social Media Ban for Minors, Urges Differentiated Protection

The German Ethics Council has advised against a general statutory minimum age for social media use, instead recommending a risk-based protection concept that includes AI chatbots and other digital services. The council calls for age verification technologies for harmful content like pornography while preserving parental educational freedom, and urges updating the Youth Media Protection Treaty to address AI risks. The recommendation comes in response to a request from Bundestag President Julia Klöckner, who expressed concern about the impact of social media on children's political opinion formation.

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The German Ethics Council has advised against a general statutory minimum age for social media use, instead recommending a risk-based protection concept that includes AI chatbots and other digital services. The council calls for age verification technologies for harmful content like pornography while preserving parental educational freedom, and urges updating the Youth Media Protection Treaty to address AI risks. The recommendation comes in response to a request from Bundestag President Julia Klöckner, who expressed concern about the impact of social media on children's political opinion formation.

de30

German justice ministers debate extending statute of limitations for rape and adopting affirmative consent standard

German federal and state justice ministers are meeting in Hamburg to debate extending the statute of limitations for certain rape cases from five to ten or twenty years, and to adopt an affirmative consent standard ('only yes means yes'). The debate follows a 2016 legal reform that inadvertently shortened the limitation period for cases where the victim could not form or express an opposing will, exemplified by the case of Claudia Wuttke, whose 65 alleged rapes were dismissed due to the short limitation. The decisions are non-binding but signal legislative intent.

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German federal and state justice ministers are meeting in Hamburg to debate extending the statute of limitations for certain rape cases from five to ten or twenty years, and to adopt an affirmative consent standard ('only yes means yes'). The debate follows a 2016 legal reform that inadvertently shortened the limitation period for cases where the victim could not form or express an opposing will, exemplified by the case of Claudia Wuttke, whose 65 alleged rapes were dismissed due to the short limitation. The decisions are non-binding but signal legislative intent.

de23

Ukrainian Ambassador Thanks German Taxpayers for Support Against Russian Aggression

Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany Oleksii Makeiev thanked German taxpayers for enabling the German government's support for Ukraine, stating that the aid helps intercept incoming Russian missiles. He emphasized that Ukraine seeks a just peace and that negotiations can only come from a position of strength. The statement was made during a visit to the Brandenburg state parliament.

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Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany Oleksii Makeiev thanked German taxpayers for enabling the German government's support for Ukraine, stating that the aid helps intercept incoming Russian missiles. He emphasized that Ukraine seeks a just peace and that negotiations can only come from a position of strength. The statement was made during a visit to the Brandenburg state parliament.

de15

German parliament debates law to hold e-scooter rental companies strictly liable for accidents

The Bundestag is debating a draft law by Justice Minister Stefanie Hubig that would make e-scooter rental companies strictly liable for damages caused by their vehicles, regardless of fault. The measure aims to close a gap where victims of accidents involving rental scooters often cannot recover damages. The law would also introduce a presumption of fault for riders.

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The Bundestag is debating a draft law by Justice Minister Stefanie Hubig that would make e-scooter rental companies strictly liable for damages caused by their vehicles, regardless of fault. The measure aims to close a gap where victims of accidents involving rental scooters often cannot recover damages. The law would also introduce a presumption of fault for riders.

de8

German F123 frigates to receive towed sonar from Elbit subsidiary, share systems with future F128 class

The German Navy's Brandenburg-class (F123) frigates will undergo a mid-life upgrade including installation of a towed sonar system from Elbit's Canadian subsidiary GeoSpectrum Technologies, chosen for its compact size. The modernization will also feature a high degree of system commonality with the planned F128 frigates, including the 9LV command system from Saab, to simplify logistics and training. The F123 upgrade delivery is scheduled for 2029, coinciding with the expected delivery of the first F128s.

Show summary

The German Navy's Brandenburg-class (F123) frigates will undergo a mid-life upgrade including installation of a towed sonar system from Elbit's Canadian subsidiary GeoSpectrum Technologies, chosen for its compact size. The modernization will also feature a high degree of system commonality with the planned F128 frigates, including the 9LV command system from Saab, to simplify logistics and training. The F123 upgrade delivery is scheduled for 2029, coinciding with the expected delivery of the first F128s.

Frequently Asked

5
Why did the US pull troops from Germany?
The Pentagon announced it would pull about 5,000 troops from Germany after Chancellor Friedrich Merz called the US war on Iran 'ill-considered' and likened it to the quagmires of Iraq and Afghanistan.
What happened to the Future Combat Air System (FCAS)?
Germany and France gave up on the manned fighter at the heart of the €100bn Future Combat Air System, with only its software backbone surviving, because Airbus and Dassault could not agree on production.
What domestic issues did Germany face in the same period?
A suspected extremist arson attack on a substation in Reutlingen knocked out power to 40,000 homes, and federal police logged a record 85,837 politically motivated crimes in 2025, with right-wing extremism accounting for roughly half.
What is Merz's proposal for Ukraine?
Merz floated an EU 'associate membership' for Ukraine, giving Kyiv a seat at summits and a commissioner in Brussels, as a way to anchor Ukraine to Europe while full membership remains years off.
What contradiction does Merz face?
Merz is asking Germany to lead Europe's defence and underwrite Ukraine's future while its own grid is being sabotaged and its politics are turning more violent, with the FCAS collapse questioning Germany's capacity to deliver.