Russia more than doubles production of converted SAMs for ballistic missile strikes, straining Ukrainian air defense

Russia has more than doubled production of RM-48U missiles, converted from S-300/S-400 air defense missiles into surface-to-surface ballistic weapons, according to Ukraine's General Intelligence Directorate (GUR). The GUR told Ukrainska Pravda that RM-48U output rose from 200 in 2025 to a projected 480 in 2026, with a monthly build rate of up to 50. These missiles are adapted from 48N6 SAMs designed for S-300PS/PT and S-400 launchers, converted into surface-to-surface weapons.

The RM-48U carries a 150-170 kilogram high-explosive fragmentation warhead, has at most half the range of an Iskander-M, and is highly inaccurate. Unlike purpose-built ballistic missiles, the RM-48U lacks correction systems and its warhead is not designed to destroy well-hardened targets, experts said. In strikes on densely populated areas, low accuracy means civilians and civilian objects become victims, especially in cities closer to the front lines.

Justin Bronk, Senior Research Fellow for Airpower and Technology at the Royal United Services Institute, said the RM-48U "fulfils a supplementary role for the Russians alongside purpose-built ballistic missiles like the 9M723." He added: "They present incoming ballistic missile-like targets for Ukrainian air defenders and force them to either ignore them and risk civilian casualties or use scarce Patriot PAC-3 or SAMP/T Aster 30 missiles to defeat them." The RM-48U can only be shot down by PAC-3 interceptors (Patriot) or Aster-30 interceptors (SAMP/T), the same weapons needed for Iskander-Ms and Kinzhals.

While RM-48U production is surging, production of Russia's more advanced ballistic missiles remains flat. The GUR said Iskander-M production is up to 60 per month, with 700 planned in 2026, "same as last year." Kinzhals are produced at up to 10 per month, with 60 planned in 2026.

Russia's tactic of using converted air defense missiles as ballistic weapons is not new. Moscow previously made extensive use of old 5V55 surface-to-air missiles as improvised ballistic weapons. Ukraine also used its own 5V55s at various points of the full-scale invasion, especially during the opening phase. The difference now is Russia's escalating campaign of drone and missile bombardments, with each month setting new records for the number of weapons used.

According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Moscow launched a total of 8,361 long-range weapons in May, including 8,150 drones and 211 missiles. Ukraine's Defense Ministry reported shooting down 92% of drones and 53% of missiles in May, including 91.73% for drones and 53% for missiles. During strikes, Ukrainian forces regularly report shooting down the majority of Russian cruise missiles, but ballistic missiles remain the biggest problem.

One alternative to counter the missile threat is additional sanctions on Russian component producers. The main company building 9M723 Iskander missiles, Konstruktorskoye Bureau Mashinostroyeniya, has been sanctioned by many countries for years. However, of the 44 component developers for the Iskander-M listed on GUR's website, 12 are not sanctioned by any country other than Ukraine. These include: Ural Factory RTI, Factory named after Morozov, PSB Technologies, Pantes, Metalist Plant, Moscow Sapfir Plant, Televidenie Research Institute, OKB Planeta, Almaz Fazotron, Research Institute of Electronic Instruments, Tri-D, and Penzenskiy Factory of Precision Instruments.