Ukraine gains battlefield advantage through AI and robotics, officials say

PRAGUE (Reuters) – Ukraine is gaining a battlefield advantage over Russia through the rapid integration of artificial intelligence and uncrewed systems, European officials and analysts said at the GLOBSEC conference in Prague, marking a shift in the war's trajectory.

Ukrainian forces have developed drones and ground robots capable of holding and retaking territory, with some systems operating autonomously after human target selection. The TFL-1 module, made by Ukrainian company The Fourth Law, enables a one-way drone to function autonomously after a human selects its target, making it four times more likely to hit its target, according to the manufacturer.

Davyd Aloian, deputy secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine, said robot-forward infantry concepts are being massively implemented now. "More than a year ago" Ukrainian fighters began developing combined-arms attacks by airborne and ground systems, he said in an interview. "Right now, we're massively starting to implement this."

Aloian said all systems are being linked into a distributed network where one day only about 10 people will be responsible for approving interception. "Everything can be controlled from Kyiv, Lviv, from cities in other countries," he said.

Swarmer CEO Serhii Kupriienko warned at GLOBSEC that Europe should be scared by how quickly a middling military like Ukraine's developed precise, devastating long-range damage. "It's not what happened to Ukraine" that should scare Europe, he said, referring to Russia's Shahed drone barrages. Kupriienko said Ukraine is behind by 10 to 20 years in some defense-technology areas like satellite imagery but has climbed a capability curve that seemed insurmountable two years ago.

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War wrote that Ukraine's drone strike campaigns are limiting Russia's ability to transport personnel and supply frontline positions. "Ukraine's successful mid-range and frontline drone strike campaigns are limiting Russia's ability to transport personnel to the frontline and to supply and sustain frontline positions," they wrote.

The shift has helped counter Russia's numerical superiority and forced Moscow to scale back symbolic displays. Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna told the GLOBSEC audience that Putin was unable to hold his Victory Day parade with tanks and missiles for the first time. "For the first time, Putin was not able to wage this parade. This is the facade actually collapsing. And Putin is losing face among the Russian people, not only among us," Tsahkna said.

Luxembourg Deputy Prime Minister Xavier Bettel said the resilience of Ukrainians was a big surprise for everyone. "Putin thought that Ukraine was a question of five days. And, let's be frank, we, too, we said, 'Five days, and then it's finished,'" Bettel said. "In fact, the resilience of the Ukrainians was a big surprise for all of us."

To underscore how dramatically Ukraine's prospects have changed, in March then-ODNI director Tulsi Gabbard testified that the U.S. intelligence community believed Russia had the upper hand in the conflict.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the government is very persistent in securing advanced Patriot missiles from the U.S. and that the U.S. must act quicker. "I believe [the U.S.] must act quicker," he told reporters during a visit to Sweden.

Aloian said for a ceasefire, Russia must be left much weaker so it cannot re-arm as it did after 2014. "If there's going to be a ceasefire, there will be very harsh conditions and difficult negotiations for the taking off of the sanctions," he said. He noted that Russia is aiming about 30 percent of its economy at the defense industry.