WFP: 45 million more people face acute hunger as Iran war drives global food and cost crisis

The UN World Food Programme confirmed on June 5 that its March predictions are materialising: the US-Israeli war on Iran, nearly three months old since strikes began on February 28, is driving tens of millions more people into acute hunger worldwide. Jean-Martin Bauer, director of the WFP's food and nutrition analysis service, told AFP: "The closure of Hormuz is translating into increased hunger." The agency had warned in March that oil prices sustained around $100 per barrel until the end of June could push 45 million more people into acute hunger -- on top of the nearly 320 million already acutely food insecure at the start of 2026. "Unfortunately, the pessimistic projections that were made earlier this year are coming to pass, and we need to act," Bauer said.

The WFP analysis found the crisis generating what it called "significant spillovers" well beyond the Middle East, through fuel, food price and income shocks and trade disruptions, with costs for staples such as rice and wheat soaring. Somalia -- where six million people are currently acutely food insecure -- illustrates the cascade: the agency projected 2.5 million more Somalis unable to afford basic foodstuffs by year-end, with 60 percent of households unable to meet essential needs, up from 47 percent in 2025. More immediately, the WFP is bracing for a pipeline break next month, meaning no food will be available for distribution in the country. "The ones who will experience the impact of this are going to be very vulnerable children under the age of five," Bauer told reporters in Geneva, noting that famine risk already exists in one Somali district.

The WFP pointed to a structural problem: the humanitarian system is less capable now than in 2022, when Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine last triggered a comparable cost-of-living shock. "Humanitarian programmes were better funded. Humanitarians were in places where they are no longer," Bauer said. Dramatic cuts to global aid funding -- accelerated by US President Donald Trump's return to the White House -- have compounded the strain. "The humanitarian system faces a double squeeze: rising needs and rising delivery costs, implying coverage gaps," the WFP analysis warned. The agency said it will serve 1.5 million fewer people in 2026 than planned; if the conflict extends to six months, more than nine million could lose food assistance entirely.

Bauer cautioned the outlook could worsen further. An El Nino warming cycle poses an additional risk of disrupting food markets, he said, warning of "additional need and additional stress going into 2027." The warning arrives against a backdrop of assessments since June 4 that even a peace deal would likely fail to quickly reverse the energy disruption created by the Hormuz closure, meaning the food security impact may outlast any near-term diplomatic settlement.