according to财联社10月1日报道，美联储一把手鲍威尔在美国全国商业经济协会年度会议上发表讲话。在讲话中他表示，最近降息50个基点的政策不应被解读为未来举措将同样激进的迹象，事实上这表明下一步举措规模将较小，如果经济数据保持一致，今年可能会再降息两次，总幅度达到50个基点。**** ****

【A massive strategic counterattack】**** **
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This speech is almost identical to the one delivered by the Federal Reserve after announcing the interest rate cut in the press conference last month. So, why did Powell feel the need to repeat these redundant words again?

The reason is that the current developments have completely exceeded the expectations of the United States.

Following the Fed's interest rate cut on the specified date, the Chinese stock market began to surge as predicted by Xueyin. After the release of various favorable economic policies in China, the overall social sentiment quickly reversed, and an exuberant optimism began to rise.

After the date, the stock market experienced continuous gains, leading to a rapid convergence of international capital towards the Chinese region. In addition to the Hong Kong stock market following the surge in mainland China, as the Chinese stock market soared continuously, the stock markets in Europe, Japan, and South Korea experienced significant declines.

The fundamental reason for the sharp decline is that international capital has begun to transfer funds from Europe, the United States, and Japan, heading towards the Chinese capital markets.

For the United States, the cut in interest rates has led to the spread of market expectations that the Federal Reserve will significantly lower interest rates overseas. China seized the opportunity and decisively acted, taking the initiative over the United States and other Western countries. As a result, various capital flows began to gather eastward, lining up at China's doorstep waiting to enter the market.

**
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【Interest rate cuts trigger capital to move eastward】**** **
**

Why does the expectation of "the Federal Reserve sharply cutting interest rates" lead to international capital flowing eastward?****

Because, if the Federal Reserve significantly cuts interest rates, then, the most basic judgment for capital in dollar financial centers like Singapore, Gaoyun City, Dubai, and London is that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates to around .%. Although these financial centers have their own currencies, they essentially peg their exchange rates to the dollar. If the dollar experiences a comprehensive rate cut in the future, the immediate impact will be a rise in the US stock market, followed by a decline in dollar bond yields. If these dollar financial centers do not quickly invest their dollar capital, their paper profits will rapidly decrease with the rate cuts. Therefore, it is imperative to quickly seize value-driven opportunities as the wave of rate cuts begins.

Just as they hesitated about where to invest, the Chinese stock market, which had already hit rock bottom, began to surge with the support of the Chinese government. From [specific date] to [specific date], the Chinese stock market soared by [specific percentage]%.

Globally, with the expectation of interest rate cuts, stock markets in countries like India, Europe, and Japan have mostly risen to their historical highs, reaching their limits of growth, while the Chinese stock market is in its period of maximum losses for investors. Consequently, international capital began to abandon the US dollar and route through financial hubs like Singapore, freely converting into RMB, and started to enter mainland China from Gaoyun City. The significant increase in RMB holdings led to a rapid appreciation of offshore RMB, resulting in a simultaneous surge in both the stock market and the exchange rate.

From a policy perspective, China's determination to stimulate the stock market and stabilize the real estate market with a large-scale favorable policy is as significant as the US launching a $4 trillion bailout.

Back then, the US's large-scale bailout operations were unstoppable, like gods and buddhas being killed in their path. Anyone who dared to short the US stock market at that time would have been slaughtered, resulting in rivers of blood. Consequently, under that round of policies, the US stock market stabilized and rebounded, and the real estate market followed suit.

This time, foreign capital's optimism about the Chinese stock market stems primarily from the confidence in the determination demonstrated by the Chinese government. It is this unyielding resolve and momentum that has completely deterred the short-sellers, leading to a surge of over % in a short period of time.

During the period of massive capital inflows into China, the currencies of financial center countries pegged to the dollar also closely followed the capital surge. As a result, not only Western capital entered China, but also other capital accumulated in these financial free ports began to flow into Gaoyun City.

The financial market operates in such a way that once expectations are formed and the general trend is established, it becomes difficult to reverse.

The origin of all this lies in the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates at its meeting on [specific date]. Xueyin mentioned in previous articles that once the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates, China will surely be revived to its full potential.

In theory, the United States can only suppress China by continuing to raise interest rates, not by cutting them. Now, as soon as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the Chinese stock market begins to attract international capital, proving that Xueyin's financial prediction logic is completely correct.

It is evident that the Federal Reserve severely underestimated the speed at which China would benefit from the interest rate cuts. China's recent move was clearly well-prepared and executed with precision.

Once, Xueyin mentioned in a previous article that the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates if they are not afraid of death. Now, after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, they have also explicitly expressed regret, stating that the rate cut provided China with a significant opportunity for counterattack. This strategic error committed by the United States, in turn, demonstrates that Xueyin's prediction has not only been validated by reality but also acknowledged by the Federal Reserve in hindsight. It also shows that even a seemingly invincible opponent may commit a major strategic error when faced with a dilemma crisis. What we need to do is to wait for the opponent to make mistakes, seize the opportunity, strike like lightning, and act swiftly!

【There is nothing we can do as the flowers fall】********

The Federal Reserve's rate cut has opened a green channel for China to intercept and repatriate capital flowing back to the United States.

To understand, when the US previously raised interest rates to over %, capital from countries including the South, Europe, and even Russia, which is under sanctions from the West, began to flood into the offshore US dollar market. With a deposit interest rate of .%, these funds, squeezed out by the US interest rate hikes, found the best place to settle.

Initially, a significant influx of capital from Russian billionaires into Dubai not only allowed them to profit from high dollar interest rate hikes but also nearly doubled Dubai's housing prices.

Now, these capital flows are once again bullish on the Chinese stock market. After all, a % increase within a week is far more attractive than the .% profit and a doubling of the real estate market. Even the first 10-year US Treasury auction after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut was exceptionally dismal, with a significant drop in overseas demand.

As a result, the Federal Reserve is now facing a situation similar to what happened after Shinzo Abe encouraged the depreciation of the yen, leading to a massive outflow of international speculative capital from the United States and its influx into Japan. Recalling those days, Shinzo Abe's actions disrupted the flow of dollars back to the United States, causing the adjustment of positions in U.S. stocks and bonds to be halted. Meanwhile, the yield curve of U.S. long-term and short-term bonds inverted again, deepening the financial crisis. This time, China has similarly intercepted international capital, which will similarly prevent the adjustment of positions in U.S. stocks and bonds, and the yield curve of U.S. long-term and short-term bonds will invert once more.

What is the extent of the harm caused by this yield curve inversion?****

Learn from history. The inversion of US Treasury yields in months led to a stock market crash and circuit breakers in the US stock market in March , almost causing a market collapse. Therefore, according to historical patterns, after the Federal Reserve's rate cut on July , the US will experience another inversion. At that time, not only will the domestic bond market financing in the US be exhausted, but the US stock market will also likely face another flash crash around January next year.

At that time, facing a flash crash, the United States had almost no tools to respond. In that flash crash of the month and year, the United States used the last resort of financial nuclear weapons: unlimited. By printing money infinitely, the United States was able to stem the decline. If another flash crash occurs, then all the financial maneuvers of the United States, from setting the stage in the Russia-Ukraine war to aggressive interest rate hikes, and from the unlimited printing of the year to the current interest rate cuts, will be completely lost.

Once the financial collapse occurs, the United States will inevitably adopt a strategic contraction, not only losing Ukraine but also unable to protect Israel. The bigger problem is that this inversion cannot be resolved through assassination and military means. In the month, after the U.S. experienced an inversion of long-term and short-term interest rates, Abe was executed in the street, but this tactic is completely ineffective against China. After all, on the 15th, China's Dongfeng missile, launched like a shot from the Yuan Gate, can wipe Washington and the Jewish nest Israel off the face of the earth at any time.

The brute force approach doesn't work, so let's try a more civilized one. To contain China, the United States has implemented two major measures:

01*

Relax control on the yen

In order to curb international capital inflows into China, the United States has requested the Bank of Japan to coordinate with its actions, even going so far as to relax financial pressure on Japan. The specific measure taken is the Bank of Japan's announcement to temporarily suspend interest rate hikes.

On the date, claiming to be a hawkish figure in Japan's monetary policy and the new Japanese Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, publicly stated that Japan will temporarily suspend interest rate hikes and implement a monetary easing policy.

Allowing this new prime minister to abandon the hawkish interest rate hike stance and turn to support the continued loose depreciation of the yen. It is evident that this new prime minister is acting entirely in accordance with the will of the United States, after all, he knows that his head is not as tough as Shinzo Abe's.

Under Japan's monetary easing policy, the yen depreciates, attracting international capital to flow into Japan. Previously, Shinzo Abe's strategy of weakening the yen diverted international capital that was originally intended for the United States. Now, to suppress China, the United States is willing to relax its control over the yen, diverting international capital from East Asia that would otherwise flow into China. All of this is aimed at preventing China from absorbing international capital.

02*

Reverse interest rate cuts expectations from the source

Since it is impossible to stop China from attracting international capital, the Federal Reserve can only seek solutions from the source of the problem. This is the fundamental reason why Powell repeated the same nonsense he said at the rate cut meeting in June at the less than half-month meeting on the 18th, hoping to guide and reverse market expectations from the source.

At this meeting, Powell clearly denied the possibility of significant rate cuts, stating that rates would be kept neutral and not committing to the direction of future monetary policy. Translated, this means that the Federal Reserve will not continue to cut interest rates and may pause rate cuts or even restart rate hikes.

This is a clear indication to international capital that the United States will continue to maintain its high-interest-rate policy.

Xueyin mentioned in previous articles that the US interest rate cut is merely a fine-tuning of the previous interest rate hike policy. The US is simply shifting from an absolute high interest rate differential with China to a relative high interest rate differential. Powell's recent remarks have confirmed this point.

那么，These Fed measures对市场how to play影响力吗？****

As long as high interest rates remain unchanged, currencies pegged to the dollar, such as Gao Yun City and Singapore, will need to consider long-term gains. Combined with Powell's previous statement that the Federal Reserve will maintain its balance sheet reduction, the combination of high interest rates and balance sheet reduction indicates that the United States will not reverse the global monetary tightening. This can deter these offshore dollar markets. Once holding dollars is expected to potentially yield long-term high interest rates and a global stock market crash under tightening conditions, international capital will naturally hesitate and stop flowing into the Chinese market.

【Powell's Speech Partially Succeeded】********

So, did Powell's plan ultimately succeed?

Only partially successful.

After Powell's speech, the U.S. dollar index surged to pre-rate cut levels, U.S. Treasury yields rose simultaneously, and the surge in non-farm payrolls further dampened rate cut expectations, leading to a sharp decline in Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. and the Golden Dragon Index overnight. The pressure has shifted to our side.

Because capital is no longer scrambling to buy the RMB, the offshore RMB exchange rate has fallen, returning to the level above.

At the same time, due to the expectation of high interest rates, international capital has also begun to join the ranks of selling Hong Kong stocks. This has led to fluctuations and declines in the Hong Kong stock market from the 1st to the 2nd, as well as the outflow of northbound funds into the Hong Kong stock market, resulting in a rapid decline after the high opening of the stock market on the 3rd.

【China and the United States face fierce confrontation】********

In this struggle, China and the United States engaged in fierce confrontations around the National Day.

After the Federal Reserve made a financial strategy mistake and China seized the opportunity to boost its stock market, China also launched a geopolitical counterattack against the Federal Reserve's financial policies.

To prevent the United States from making a comeback, on a certain date, China dispatched a special envoy to the Middle East to visit Iran. On a certain date, the head of the Russian administration, Mishustin, visited China. The strategic coordination among China, Russia, and Iran was completed. In this regard, you can pay attention to the fact that every time Russia and Iran launch major military operations, China participates in the coordination. For example, in a certain month of a certain year, China sent a military advisory group to Syria, and immediately after, the encirclement of Aleppo was completed, and this ancient city was captured in just three months. This coordination is no exception.

Tripartite coordinated military operations are aimed at striking the heart of Israeli Jewish capital.

On the night of the date, just hours after Powell's speech, Iran launched a barrage of missiles targeting the entire territory of Israel. These missiles not only struck directly at the heart of Mossad's headquarters but also destroyed large-scale targets such as Israeli airbases where fighter jets were stationed. The severity of this attack forced Israel to impose a complete lockdown on the dissemination of related videos and information. If the losses were not significant, why would there be a need for such a thorough lockdown?

This practice of covering one's ears while stealing a bell is identical to the approach taken when Iranian missiles attacked U.S. military forces, with planes continuously transporting bodies, yet Iran vehemently promoted that it had previously notified the U.S. and that the U.S. military suffered minimal losses.

This attack, whether Iran has made Israel feel the pain, only these Nazi beasts know best themselves. After being hit by Iran, Israel, like a dog whose tail has been stepped on, immediately jumped out to declare that it would strike targets including Iran's nuclear facilities. If it weren't for being pushed to the brink, the Jews would not have been so vociferous.

Subsequently, the Houthis launched hypersonic missiles towards Israel, Hamas fired rockets into Israel, and Iraq sent drones towards Israel, marking the initial formation of a group assault pattern.

China's effective countermeasures against the United States are manifested in two aspects:

The most direct approach is to strike Israel to show the Middle Eastern capitalists that if the United States cannot even protect Israel in the Middle East, how could it possibly protect your capital in European and American banks? If my East Wind, which has traversed the sky, lands in Europe and America, your capital will be reduced to ashes.

Financially, Iran's missile launch has stretched international oil prices, which will directly impact the Federal Reserve's high-interest rate policy. The U.S. needs to combine high interest rates with low oil prices to truly undermine China, Russia, and Iran. Now that Iran has attacked Israel, oil prices have risen close to the level that pulls Russia and China out of their fiscal lifelines, stabilizing the China-Russia alliance.

Xue Yin mentioned in previous articles that as long as oil prices are stabilized within the comfortable range of the US dollar, fluctuations in US monetary policy will be greatly restricted. The Federal Reserve's ability to cut or raise interest rates will be significantly constrained by China. In this way, the volatility of the dollar will disappear, liquidity will decrease, and the RMB's share will inevitably expand comprehensively through foreign trade. This is the fundamental reason why the RMB's share in international transactions has doubled within a decade. The expansion of RMB internationalization will lead to a surge in capital inflows into China. With the increase in capital, China's economic and financial strength will grow significantly, leading to greater military and political influence. Once a virtuous cycle is formed, the United States will further decline.

The financial game between China and the United States shows clear traces of military strategy. While global stock markets are surging, China deliberately suppresses its own stock market to create a value trap, which is akin to "retreating when the enemy advances." Once the U.S. is unable to sustain and cuts interest rates, China immediately rolls out a series of policies to boost its stock market and aggressively attract capital, which is "advancing when the enemy retreats." This sudden and fierce move also echoes the saying: "In war, deception is the way."

【Forcing the US to Expand Its Balance Sheet】********

China, Russia, and Iran jointly stabilize oil prices, making it impossible for the United States to maintain high interest rates to combat rising domestic inflation. If long COVID results in over a million young adults in the U.S. exiting the labor market, the true face of an American economic recession will emerge.

China has massively intercepted international capital originally destined for the United States, leading to a significant financial crisis that will erupt in the United States between the months of [specific months] and [specific months].

At that time, the only lifesaving elixir for the United States would be infinity, which means the Federal Reserve would go on another buying spree of U.S. Treasury bonds, expanding its balance sheet from close to a trillion dollars to a trillion dollars.

As long as the Federal Reserve expands its balance sheet, U.S. dollar capital will inevitably flow from within the United States into China, further accelerating the pace at which international capital enters China. If this portion of funds exists in the form of industrial and commercial capital, they will permanently settle in China and will not flow out for a relatively long period of time.

The Federal Reserve, burdened with a massive balance sheet, will, even if it raises interest rates and shrinks its balance sheet again in the future, see China continue to scoop up assets in other countries by releasing its vast foreign exchange reserves, thereby completing the interception. This way, the U.S. strategy of playing the global financial trilogy will be completely disintegrated.

【Positive Impacts of Global Capital Repatriation】********

After crushing the dollar, global capital enters China, addressing multiple challenges in China's future development.

01*

Returned funds

Through the Trans-Pacific Interests Alliance, the capital inflow into the United States through immigration has exceeded trillions of dollars over the years. Just from the year to the present, more than 100,000 billionaires have immigrated to the United States and Singapore. Once the U.S. dollar's wild expansion of its balance sheet is no longer the primary international reserve currency, asset prices within the United States will inevitably decline, including the stock market, real estate market, and bond market, all of which will lose their appeal. Therefore, the billionaires who previously transferred their assets to the United States will inevitably repatriate their assets back to their home countries or move them to offshore renminbi centers such as Gaoyun City, Singapore, and Dubai.

With the renminbi becoming a reserve currency, these assets will flow into China, thus completing the return of the nation's capital that had been flowing abroad back to the motherland.

02*

technical innovation

The rise of currency is inevitably accompanied by the transfer of technical talents. The United States was able to catch up in the Second Industrial Revolution precisely because of the technical talents from around the world.

After the internationalization of the RMB, a large influx of talents from various countries will occur. At that time, just as foreign technical talents led the United States to ignite the third technological revolution first, China will also usher in the fourth technological revolution. China's technological revolution will bring about greater industrial growth, which in turn will create a dimensional reduction strike against the United States. Afterward, the great rejuvenation that the Chinese descendants have longed for for thousands of years will be re-enacted.

03*

**资本原始积累问题
**

The issues currently facing China's social development almost entirely stem from the process of capital accumulation, which is essential for any nation's rise. China, having missed the colonial era and the scramble among major powers, has faced a bumpy road in its capital accumulation.

Capital accumulation is morally neutral, but in China, which emphasizes morality, it has led to many social issues such as high housing prices, the commercialization of education, healthcare problems, difficulties in employment, and low income.

Once international capital flows in massively, China will be able to completely resolve this issue and provide fuel for igniting the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

Once the Fourth Technological Revolution is completed, humanity will no longer be troubled by energy issues. With truly new energy sources, the problem of synthesizing food from carbon dioxide will be completely resolved.

At that time, humanity will enter the true era of great harmony, and humans will also leave Earth, beginning a new era of interstellar navigation, the great maritime age. The navigator and the wielder of the sword in this journey will be the greatest Chinese nation.

【Stock Market Showdown】********

On the specified date, after the stock market opened with a significant surge, fierce competition ensued as foreign capital engaged in short selling and Hong Kong stocks. In the final half hour, the overall market rebounded and maintained an upward trend.

In terms of funding, the state has warned against allowing credit capital into the stock market, indicating that funds are beginning to awaken, and the expectation guidance for the stock market has started to pull the long-dormant loans, which will further stimulate incremental funds to enter the market.

In terms of sentiment, although the current rise in the stock market has not yet allowed some veteran investors to recoup their losses, it has already changed the expectations of hundreds of millions of investors overnight regarding the future of the country and its economy. This is likely the strategic objective that the state aims to achieve through its forceful push in the stock market.

October marks the beginning of the final quarter of the year. If the overall pessimistic expectations cannot be reversed, not only will the economic work in the second half of the year become more difficult, but it will also affect the reduction caused by the upcoming Lunar New Year, let alone the expectations of the national economy's growth for the entire year in March next year.

A year's plan starts with spring! As we enter the golden October of harvest, we must not be pessimistic about future expectations. From the present to the future, China needs to quickly boost the positive expectations for the economy. With good expectations for the future, we can further drive the real estate market and enable the stock market to support the innovation of the real economy.

Finally, Xueyin would like to remind readers of a few points, without tiring of repetition:

I. Do not engage in margin trading, borrowing, or leveraged stock trading. Even in a bull market, such high-leverage operations can result in severe losses. In a bull market, trading volumes fluctuate greatly, and high leverage can easily break. Once it breaks, all your capital can be wiped out in a very short time.

II. Presently, capital allocation has started to rise again. Scammers are also becoming active everywhere. Here, we remind everyone that those who encourage capital allocation for stock trading, ask to download unknown stock trading software, offer to trade on behalf of clients, or promote purchasing stock trend software are mostly scammers.

Just think about it, if this thing could make money, they would have done it themselves, why share it with you? Don't bet on the goodness of human nature in the face of profit, and in the face of huge profits, betting on human nature generally results in ten losses out of ten.

这轮股市上涨的具体操作，在上篇文章"The Mighty Rainbow Pierces the Sun: A Strong Breakthrough"已经详细阐述，大家只要按照既定的三个时间点，结合自身的实际情况择时退出即可。这里强调下，退出时间依据就是各位对风险厌恶以及损失的承受能力。如果害怕亏损对家庭和个人产生不利影响，就请提前获利上岸，反之则可以继续畅游其中，在最后时间点上岸。

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