Sinwar's death, has Israel won?
The Israel Defense Forces and the Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet) issued a joint statement late on the night that Yehya Sinwar, the leader of the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), had been killed in the Israeli military operation in the Gaza Strip.
Who is Sinwar? What are the reactions from all parties? How will this affect the regional situation, and does it really mean the "beginning of the end of the war"?
The joint statement from the Israeli side says that the Israeli military conducted an operation in the southern Gaza Strip, resulting in the death of Sinwar. Sinwar is said to have "planned and executed" the attack by Hamas militants in Israel last month. The Israeli military released footage of Sinwar's "final moments alive": sitting on a sofa in a bombed-out building, he was seen throwing a long stick while facing away from the camera. Another video released by the Israeli side shows the deceased Sinwar curled up in the rubble, covered in debris.
This is a photo of Yahya Sinwar taken in Gaza City on [date]. Xinhua News Agency/Visham Nassar.
Hamas announced in this year that Sinwar became the leader of Hamas' political bureau, succeeding Ismail Haniyeh, who was previously assassinated. According to information released by Hamas, Sinwar was born in the Khan Younis refugee camp in the southern Gaza Strip in November . From to , Sinwar commanded multiple conflicts against Israel, and was imprisoned for months in for resistance activities. In , he was convicted by Israel for allegedly killing two Israeli soldiers and was incarcerated for many years. In , Sinwar was released as part of a prisoner exchange agreement between Israel and Hamas. In , he became the political bureau leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip and was re-elected in . The United States listed Sinwar as a "global terrorist" in . Sinwar rarely makes public appearances.
Hamas has not yet confirmed the news of Sinwar's death, nor has it issued any related statements. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated in a statement that Sinwar's death "is not the end of the Gaza war, but the beginning of its end." Netanyahu said that the war could end if Hamas laid down its weapons and released the hostages. According to previous statements by Israel, it is believed that at least half of the hostages held by Hamas in the Gaza Strip are still alive.
On the date, Israeli Defense Forces Chief of Staff Halevi (center) inspected the vicinity of the site where Sinwar was killed in the Gaza Strip. Photo provided by the Israeli Defense Forces and released by Xinhua News Agency.
The Iranian Mission to the United Nations posted on social media that Sinwar's death will "strengthen the spirit of resistance," his strength will inspire people to "continue on the path to liberate Palestine," and "as long as occupation and aggression exist, resistance will continue."
US President Biden issued a statement saying that Sinwar's death means "a good day" for Israel and the United States. Now is an opportunity to advance political solutions for Gaza governance in the post-Hamas era and to create a better future for both Israelis and Palestinians. According to the White House statement, Biden and Netanyahu spoke on the phone to discuss how to facilitate the release of hostages and end the war under the condition that Israel's security is assured and Hamas can no longer control Gaza.
The French Ministry of Foreign Affairs Deputy Spokesperson issued a statement saying that the death of Sinwar has "turned the page" on the Gaza war. The French side calls for the immediate release of all detainees, an immediate ceasefire, the entry of large quantities of humanitarian aid, and for Gaza to move towards peace and reconstruction.
Analysts believe that the death of Sinwar is unlikely to mark a turning point for peace in the Gaza Strip, as the Israel-Palestine conflict is expected to continue, and the regional situation may even deteriorate further. Jonathan Freeman, an international relations scholar at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, told Xinhua that Sinwar's death could weaken the fighting resolve of some Hamas militants, but as a whole, Hamas will continue to fight against Israel. Additionally, this may prompt Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and others to increase attacks on Israel, potentially targeting senior Israeli leaders.
Ding Long, a professor at the Middle East Institute of Shanghai International Studies University, told reporters that it is expected that a hardliner may succeed Sinwar as the leader of Hamas in the future, while Israel will continue to target and dismantle individual members of the "resistance axis." The likelihood of ongoing or escalating conflicts between Lebanon and Israel, as well as between Iran and Israel, is significant.
Al Jazeera's analysis suggests that despite the Israeli military's elimination of Sinwar, the war objectives of Netanyahu's government have not been achieved: Israel has not rescued the abducted personnel, has not prevented rocket attacks on Israeli cities, and has not enabled Israelis to return to living in the northern regions.
Palestinian political analyst Samir Anabtawi told reporters that Netanyahu may continue to escalate the situation before the US elections in November, hoping that the next US administration will become accustomed to this level of confrontation, thereby continuing to support Israel in the future when it launches attacks on Iran and other countries in the Middle East.
Mohamed Elmasry, an expert from the Graduate Institute of Doha, Qatar, believes that the cycle of violence may continue unless the root causes of the Gaza war are addressed. "As for the roots, it is well known, including Israel's illegal occupation of Palestinian land, the apartheid system established by Israel, the blockade of Gaza, and so on."
The latest bulletin jointly released by the International Labour Organization and the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics shows that the poverty rate in the Gaza Strip has approached 100% since the beginning of the new round of Israel-Palestine conflict, which has lasted for a year. Ruba Jaradat, Regional Director for Arab States at the International Labour Organization, stated that the war has caused losses to the Gaza Strip not only in terms of casualties, extremely severe humanitarian disasters, and material destruction, but has also fundamentally altered the socio-economic landscape of Gaza, while significantly impacting the economy and labor market in the West Bank.