How to address data fluctuations? How to view external "noise"? What will be the future trend? — Customs General Administration responds to hot topics in foreign trade operation during the first three quarters.
The latest data on China's foreign trade was released. According to customs statistics, in the first three quarters of this year, the total value of imports and exports of goods reached . trillion yuan, an increase of .% year-on-year. Among them, exports and imports grew by .% and .%, respectively.
While withstanding pressure and achieving growth with improved quality, the General Administration of Customs addressed hot topics such as fluctuating data in foreign trade operations, external concerns, and expectations for the annual trend during a press conference held by the State Council Information Office on the same day.
Partial data fluctuations do not alter the overall growth trend. Wang Lingjun, Deputy Director of the General Administration of Customs, stated that the first three quarters saw stable overall performance in China's foreign trade, with both exports and imports achieving growth. The total value of imports and exports during the first three quarters reached a new high, exceeding one trillion yuan in each quarter, a first for the same period in history.
In addition to the stable cumulative growth rate, the monthly trend is also an indicator to measure the performance of foreign trade. In the month in question, the total import and export value was . trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of .%, a decrease of . percentage points compared to the previous month. Among them, exports and imports grew by .% and decreased by .%, respectively, both showing a slowdown compared to the previous month.
Mr. Lü Daliang, Director of the Department of Statistics and Analysis of the General Administration of Customs, stated that the slowdown in export growth for the month is a normal short-term data fluctuation. Preliminary analysis indicates that it is mainly influenced by some short-term sporadic factors, such as the high base of last month's export scale; the consecutive landings of two typhoons in the Yangtze River Delta region this month, which caused delays in ship schedules and delayed exports; and the recent global shipping disruptions and container shortages that led to adjustments in the timing of shipments and logistics.
"Recently, the results of our survey of major export enterprises across the country show that % of the enterprises reported flat or increased exports in the fourth quarter." Lü Dalian believes that China's exports still possess strong resilience.
Regarding the import situation, Lü Dalinag said that if we simply look at the numbers, the month-on-month growth rate in RMB terms has slowed down due to factors such as import prices and exchange rate fluctuations. However, in terms of scale, imports have been expanding month by month since the beginning of the year, with the month reaching the highest point of the year, showing a month-on-month increase of %. In terms of quantity, imports in the month increased by .% year-on-year, with coal, natural gas, and integrated circuits seeing increases of %, %, and % respectively, reflecting the continuous recovery of domestic demand.
China's "New Three" products are widely popular without deliberately pursuing a trade surplus. Data shows that in the first three quarters, China's total import and export trade surplus reached . trillion yuan, with a monthly trade surplus of . billion yuan, an increase year-on-year.
Wang Lingjun stated that China has never deliberately pursued a trade surplus. The recent expansion of the goods trade surplus is driven by both the enhancement of our industrial competitiveness and the resilience of exports, as well as the impact of the recent decline in global commodity prices, which has lowered import values.
"Evaluating trade surpluses cannot be solely based on absolute size; it is more important to consider the relative proportion, specifically the ratio of the surplus to the Gross Domestic Product ()." Wang Lingjun said, "In a vertical comparison, the current proportion is lower than the historical peak in our country; in a horizontal comparison, it is also lower than that of some major global economies. Additionally, to assess whether a country's trade is balanced, one should also look at the international balance of payments statistics. According to the latest international balance of payments data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, the ratio of our country's current account surplus to the same period is .%, continuing to remain within a reasonable and balanced range."
In response to some countries imposing tariffs on China's "new three types" products, Lü Daliang provided data to address the issue: In the first three quarters, China's exports of electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products amounted to . billion yuan, accounting for .% of China's total export value. The "new three types" export market spans multiple countries and regions and is widely welcomed globally.
The global new energy industry remains in a phase of rapid development. China's export of "new three types" of green and low-carbon products not only enriches global supply and alleviates global inflation pressures but also makes significant contributions to global climate change response and green transformation. According to Lü Daliang, it is hoped that relevant countries will abandon such unfair, non-compliant, and unreasonable trade protectionist practices, seek their own reasonable interests in common development, and open up new sources of momentum for global economic growth.
Conditions are in place and confidence is high to achieve the annual goals. Currently, the external environment has become more complex and severe. The latest report from the International Monetary Fund shows that global economic growth is below the average level of the first years of this century. Both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have lowered their respective economic growth expectations for this year by 0.2 percentage points. Some countries have frequently imposed trade restrictions on Chinese products, which has brought certain pressure to the development of foreign trade.
There are only three months left in the year. In the face of new situations and problems, can the goal of improving the quality and stabilizing the quantity of foreign trade be achieved? Flexible and adaptable private enterprises continue to inject new vitality. In the first three quarters, the import and export of private enterprises in China increased by .%, . percentage points higher than the national average, contributing .% to the overall growth of foreign trade; as a new driving force for foreign trade growth, cross-border e-commerce continues to "accelerate". Preliminary data shows that in the first three quarters, the import and export of cross-border e-commerce in China reached . trillion yuan, an increase of .% year-on-year, . percentage points higher than the overall growth rate of foreign trade during the same period; more diversified bilateral trade provides strong support for cooperation and exchange. Agreements on the access of agricultural products and food have been signed with countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative, and complementary cooperation has been achieved with other BRICS countries in basic industries such as steel, chemicals, and textiles; ...
Facing uncertainties and instability, a wave after wave of precisely implemented policy dividends, one after another resiliently growing business entities, and one after another cross-mountain-and-sea "two-way rushes" are accelerating the cultivation of new advantages in foreign trade competition and solidifying the foundation for high-quality development in foreign trade.
Wang Lingjun stated that the fundamental aspects of China's economic development have not changed, the market potential remains significant, and the favorable conditions of strong economic resilience have not changed. Recently, various departments and regions have actively introduced a package of incremental policies to support the healthy development of the real economy and business entities. With the coordinated efforts of these policies, China's economy will continue to stabilize, improve, and grow positively.
We have the conditions and confidence to achieve the goal of improving the quality and stabilizing the quantity of our annual foreign trade.