Since Iran launched a large-scale ballistic missile attack on Israel earlier this month, Israel has repeatedly vowed retaliation. Judging from the current information, it seems only a matter of time before Israel retaliates against Iran. So, what preparations is Iran making? Will Israel only target military objectives? Could the retaliation lead to a large-scale direct conflict between the two countries, further escalating regional tensions?

Iran has publicly stated on multiple occasions that it is prepared for potential attacks from Israel and will respond with force. The Iranian military has even announced that it has prepared "at least a set of plans" to counter a potential Israeli attack, without specifying the details of these plans. Hossein Salami, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said that if Israel commits any acts of aggression against Iran, Iran will retaliate in a manner that will cause Israel "pain."

In terms of diplomacy, Iran is actively seeking support from regional countries. In recent days, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has made consecutive visits to Iraq, Jordan, and Egypt to coordinate positions, hoping to gain more support from Middle Eastern countries, while urging Israel to halt its military operations in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon.

The reporter observed on the streets of Tehran that the daily life of the people remains orderly, and the government has not organized the public for war preparations or implemented wartime measures. Nim, a resident of Tehran, said that the Israeli side would likely not target civilians but only military facilities, "having little to do with most civilians," so he is not worried. Aiyhoun, a resident who experienced the Iran-Iraq War, said that most Iranian people are not particularly concerned about the conflict between Israel and Iran, believing that it will not significantly impact their lives.

US President Biden held talks with leaders from multiple European countries in Berlin, Germany, on the situation in the Middle East, among other topics. Before leaving Germany, a journalist asked if the US was clear about when and how Israel would respond to Iran's missile attack on the 13th. Biden replied, "Yes, yes." When pressed for further details, Biden said, "Can't say, can't say."

The Washington Post reported that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu had informed Biden that Israel would target Iran's military infrastructure rather than its nuclear or oil facilities. However, the Israeli Prime Minister's Office later shared this report on social media, stating, "We listen to the United States, but we will make the final decision based on our national interests."

The initial reports of Israel's intention to carry out "significant retaliation" against Iran also came from American media, with Israel initially targeting Iran's oil fields or nuclear facilities. However, after this plan was exposed, Biden publicly expressed his stance, urging Israel to choose "alternative options."

US public opinion generally believes that if Israel strikes Iran's oil fields or nuclear facilities, it would severely impact the Democratic Party's election prospects. Israeli media reports that under US pressure, Israel has softened its stance, agreeing to only target Iranian military objectives. Israel has already finalized a list of targets for the strike but has not yet determined when to launch the attack, while also preparing for potential future retaliation from Iran.

The United States recently announced the provision of a THAAD missile defense system to Israel, aiming to compensate for Israel's deficiencies in missile defense capabilities. Some analyses suggest that once THAAD is in place, Israel may launch strikes against Iran.

Iranian media analysis suggests that whether an Israeli strike on Iran would lead to a cycle of retaliation depends on the scale of Israel's actions. If Israel's strikes are limited to military targets and are of a smaller scope, there may be room for some compromises between the two countries, potentially avoiding a cycle of retaliation. Conversely, if Israel's actions exceed the tolerance level of the Iranian government, it could trigger a cycle of retaliation, increasing the likelihood of escalation in the conflict between the two nations.

Senior Iran-West Asia expert Seyed Reza Sadr Hosseini told Xinhua that Iran's armed forces are fully prepared. If Israel targets Iran's nuclear facilities, power plants, oil facilities, military centers, or key personnel, Iran will surely respond with necessary measures, and the intensity of its response will exceed Israel's actions.

The Iranian government has repeatedly stated that Iran is committed to maintaining peace and stability in the Middle East. Analysts believe that Iran has no intention of engaging in a larger-scale military conflict with Israel, and Israel appears to be controlling the scope of its retaliation against Iran. Both sides likely do not want to see a cycle of retaliation and escalating conflict.