Are prices falling? Is Milei's "shock therapy" effective?
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Since taking office over half a year ago, Argentine President Milei's "shock therapy" for the economy has been highly controversial. There has been slight progress in curbing hyperinflation. The national inflation level in Argentina has stabilized, with the core inflation rate falling below the % threshold. According to Bloomberg, consumer prices rose by .% month-on-month in the month, only slightly below the median .% in the Bloomberg survey. Since November, Argentina's inflation rate has remained around %. The monthly inflation rate is the lowest since the end of 2019.
However, radical policies have brought soaring poverty rates to Argentina. According to data recently released by Argentina's National Bureau of Statistics, the poverty rate in Argentina for the first half of this year was .%, and the extreme poverty rate was .%, the highest level since . Compared to before Milei took office, the poverty rate has increased by percentage points. The impoverished and working classes have been heavily impacted by the government's policies, with three large-scale protests occurring in the last six months, causing social unrest and affecting the implementation of measures taken by Argentina to address economic issues.
How difficult is it for Milei to lead Argentina to a path of prosperity? To curb inflation, the Argentine government has implemented measures such as significant tax cuts and expenditure reductions. At the beginning of the month, the Argentine government announced reductions in import tariffs on refrigerators and washing machines (from % to %), tires (from % to %), and major plastic raw materials (from % to %). At the beginning of the month, the Argentine government also revoked the increase in import tariffs (from % to %) that had been implemented in January 2023, known as the "Solidarity Tax," and the rate was reduced back to %.
On the date, Argentine Economy Minister Caputo announced in a tweet on his social media: "We will continue to reduce tariffs on a variety of consumer goods through a decree, including motorcycles, cars and motorcycle tires, small household appliances, coffee, and lighting fixtures. Additionally, for important imported products for economic development, such as plastics (used in manufacturing bottles) and plastics (used in manufacturing various household appliances), as well as synthetic yarns needed in the textile industry: Lycra and polyester. Finally, we will also reduce import tariffs on machinery and equipment, and implement tariff reductions for molds and irrigation equipment."
On the date, the Argentine government officially published Decree No. / in the Official Gazette, announcing the reduction of import tariffs on products, including coffee, canned food, plastic bottles, motorcycles, tires, Lycra and polyester textiles, as well as household appliances such as lamps, coffee machines, electric kettles, and electric ovens.
To reduce inflation, Milei also cut public spending, canceled previous subsidies to government agencies, and raised water, gas, and electricity rates by about %, with gas prices also increasing. He emphasized that capital controls will remain in place, which helps curb inflation. Meanwhile, the government has revised multiple temporary import systems for industrial processing, facilitating customs clearance efficiency, eliminating non-tariff barriers, such as requiring importers to replenish their stock within days, previously within three years, thereby encouraging more inventory turnover.
China-Argentina relations have been steadily advancing. Although Milei has achieved certain success in managing inflation, his economic policies are often questioned and criticized domestically. Additionally, the increase in the number of poor people has exacerbated the economic challenges Argentina faces. China and Argentina have close economic and trade ties. Currently, China is Argentina's second-largest trading partner and its largest source of imports, with bilateral trade reaching approximately billions of dollars annually. Developing economic and investment exchanges between China and Argentina is beneficial for both countries.
Meli's tough stance on China during his campaign last year softened significantly after he took office. The economic challenges Argentina currently faces have further prompted Meli to shift his stance on China. Looking around the world, who can extend a helping hand to alleviate economic difficulties, Meli should be well aware. In a recent month this year, the Central Bank of Argentina announced that China has agreed to renew a currency swap agreement worth 130 billion RMB with Argentina, extending the validity of the agreement by three years. This means Argentina can repay China's money before a certain month and year.
On [date], the Argentine government issued a notice, concluding the anti-dumping investigation on microwave ovens from China and deciding not to impose anti-dumping duties on Chinese microwave ovens. The notice took immediate effect upon its release. This decision pertains to non-built-in microwave ovens with a capacity not exceeding [capacity] liters, including those with or without a grill, and with mechanical or digital controls, which are classified under the Argentine tariff code [tariff code].
China and Argentina's economic and trade relations have maintained resilient development. Argentine beef and various agricultural products are popular among Chinese consumers, with Chinese netizens humorously commenting, "Thanks to Milei for lowering the price of imported beef in China." In the future, China and Argentina may deepen cooperation in areas such as agriculture, mineral resources, particularly lithium mining, infrastructure, energy, and new energy industries. It is hoped that Argentina's policy towards China will remain consistent and stable, ensuring that the relationship between the two countries will continue to develop steadily.