Following the Federal Reserve's initiation of a new round of easing last month, the future policy path has not become clearer. With robust economic data, the Fed is increasingly cautious about the direction of interest rates. However, data dependency could exacerbate the potential market pricing risks associated with indicator drift, thereby causing disturbances to risk assets. Meanwhile, against the backdrop of the U.S. federal government's fiscal deficit reaching $1 trillion in the current fiscal year, it undoubtedly adds more uncertainty to the direction of interest rates.

堪萨斯城联储：利率不确定性处于高位
近日，美国堪萨斯城联储针对联邦基金政策利率不确定性推出新指标KC PRU，通过市场期权价格来量化未来的利率空间。根据KC PRU的数据，市场目前对未来一年联邦基金利率的可能结果定价在1.25个百分点的范围内。与近几十年相比，尤其不考虑危机时期的情况下，市场分歧处于高位。相比之下，2012-2020年的平均值仅为0.49%。

The current uncertainty in interest rates reflects differing interpretations of economic data by various parties. On one hand, unemployment remains low by historical standards, inflation has slowed significantly, and gross domestic product is growing at a healthy pace. On the other hand, the labor market is gradually softening, inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's target, and there are numerous potential shocks that could disrupt economic expansion. The development of these trends will influence the Federal Reserve's policy.

The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index fell by .% on Monday, accelerating from the previous month. Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board, said that weak factory orders and a dim outlook for consumers in the coming months dragged down the index. He stated, "Overall, the index continues to signal uncertainty in future economic activity."

From the recent latest statements, the Federal Reserve has reached an important consensus internally on cautious future rate cuts. Federal Reserve Governor Waller believes that recent economic data, including consumer inflation reports that are hotter than expected and strong employment reports, indicate that the economy may not slow down as anticipated, and the pace of rate cuts should be more cautious than required at the monthly meetings. However, restrictive monetary policy remains a pressure on the economy in the future.

Asset management firm macro strategist Schlossberg () told First Financial News that in fact, the Fed faced significant disagreement over the magnitude of rate cuts at its decision-making meeting. Now, policymakers are still facing a complex economic situation, with not only short-term challenges to the labor market from hurricanes and strikes but also the impact of geopolitical factors. Schlossberg believes that the U.S. economy may be gradually approaching a delicate tipping point; too rapid easing could lead to a resurgence of inflation, while insufficient policy strength could threaten a soft landing. Historically, the Fed has indeed maintained vigilance in its policy decisions and responded to risks in a timely manner.

联邦赤字会成为潜在风险吗
上周公布的数据显示，2024财年美国财政赤字超过1.8万亿美元，为历史第三高水平。美国财政部报告称，本财年支出增长了10%，达到6.7万亿美元，而政府收入增长了11%，达到4.9万亿美元。值得一提的是，用于支付公共债务净利息的支出增长了34%，达到创纪录的8820亿美元，这与美联储处于本轮紧缩周期尾声的利率水平直接相关。

According to an analysis released this month by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget ( ), the tax and spending plans of Democratic presidential candidate Harris and Republican candidate former President Trump could both further increase the deficit. Investment Strategy and Research Director Pled ( ) and Investment Strategy Vice President Reynolds ( ) stated that, on the surface, the policy proposals Harris and Trump have already put forward "add up to a significant expansion of the federal deficit." Regardless of the election outcome, the new administration or those considering increasing deficit spending by $2.3 trillion to $5.6 trillion over the next decade.

On Monday, U.S. Treasury yields rose in a new round of selling, with the 10-year Treasury nearing its highest level since last month, and the policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury breaking through %. According to Roland, co-chief investment strategist at investment firm, despite signs of a still healthy U.S. economy since mid-September contributing to the rise in Treasury yields, the bond market's movements also seem to reflect the prospect of rising government deficits. Evidence of this can be found in the increase in the long-term premium of the 10-year Treasury, or the additional compensation required for investors to hold long-term Treasuries.

It is worth noting that a new round of debt negotiations will begin after the US presidential election. The market generally believes that while a substantive default is unlikely, the test of market confidence is certain. Judging from the recent trend of gold, the continuous involvement of central banks in various countries is also one of the reasons for asset allocation to hedge against risks.