Who leads the property market "Xiaoyangchun"

editor's note 进入3月份以来，楼市迎来所谓“金三银四”，尽管同比来看，市场整体热度不及去年，但环比来看，部分热点城市成交反弹明显。一方面多重政策利好，加上房价下行，刺激刚需入市；另一方面，置换也带来大量需求。本期地产周刊主要聚焦一二线热点城市，盘点首季市场表现，重点剖析哪些城市热度较高，领跑本轮反弹行情。

■ China Economic Times reporter Li Xiaohong

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Since entering March, the property market has ushered in warmth. Although the overall market popularity is not as good as last year on a year-on-year basis, transactions in some hot cities rebounded significantly on a month-on-month basis. From the perspective of first-tier cities, Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Shenzhen have performed well. After the Spring Festival, whether it is second-hand residential transactions or new house projects visiting and de-upgrading, all show a recovery.

1

The characteristics of weak recovery in first-tier cities are prominent

"After the Spring Festival, especially in the past half month, market trading volume did rebound, but it was basically the result of 'price for volume'." I love my family, an agent told a reporter from the China Economic Times.

"Take a two-bedroom apartment in Yuhaiyuan Community in Haidian District as an example. Compared with last year, it has been reduced by nearly 1 million yuan." The above-mentioned agent said that due to the large price reduction, which met the expectations of buyers, the transaction volume naturally increased.

Zhao Daxuan, deputy director of the Urban and Real Estate Research Center of the National Development and Strategy Research Institute of Renmin University of China, told the China Economic Times reporter that in the first quarter of 2024, the real estate markets of the four major first-tier cities basically maintained the trend of the previous year and entered a period of continuous consolidation and restoration. Macroeconomic indicators such as new house sales area, construction area, and total loan issuance have not yet recovered well. From the perspective of micro-trading entities in the market, the entire market is now in a period of "price for volume", and the direction is still unclear. A large number of home buyers and sellers are still in a wait-and-see state.

"Judging from the online data of Anju, the market popularity in first-tier cities has generally recovered rapidly after the Spring Festival. However, from the perspective of transaction volume, there is still a large gap compared with last year, which is also in line with the characteristics of weak market recovery." In an interview with a reporter from the China Economic Times, Zhang Bo, president of the 58 Anjuke Research Institute, believed that compared with before the Spring Festival, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in first-tier cities has increased significantly compared with first-hand houses. Including going north, second-hand houses are becoming more popular in the market. At the same time, the transaction volume of second-hand houses tends to show small peaks on weekends, which reflects that second-hand houses are more effective in diverting first-hand home customers than last year.

Especially in the core area of second-hand housing search heat rise obviously, mainly concentrated in small and medium-sized family. Zhang Bo said that this reflects that there are still many potential home buyers, especially first-time home buyers, but due to the still high purchase restriction threshold, it is currently difficult for this group of people to enter the market in the short term.

Li Yujia, chief researcher at the Housing Policy Research Center of Guangdong Province, pointed out that the seasonal rebound in the first quarter has always been a normal state in the commercial housing market. There are many new citizens and young people in first-tier cities. After the Spring Festival, buying houses based on reasons such as employment, children entering school, marriage and job changes, and improvement of living conditions is very concentrated in first-tier cities. However, the main reason is that second-hand housing has rebounded, mainly based on the demand for just-needed housing and a small number of housing replacements, focusing on the demand for degree rooms and the digestion of houses with relatively large price reductions in the early stage.

It is worth noting that on March 28, Zhonghai Shunchang Jiuli of Shanghai Xintiandi plate opened, setting a new national opening record with sales of 19.65 billion yuan. In history, the "opening sales crown" was a project in Shenzhen in 2020, with an amount of 19.6 billion yuan.

Yan Yuejin, research director of the Yiju Research Institute, believes that the "record-breaking opening sales" is very worthy of attention, which means that some new housing purchase funds are accelerating and firmly entering the market, which will have a positive effect on the subsequent expected guidance of the real estate market in various places. "Changing houses or releasing improved demand for high-end housing is the focus of attention for the continued recovery of the real estate market this year."

2

Shenzhen property market continues to heat up

In the first quarter of 2024, Shenzhen's property market experienced a high degree of popularity. The latest statistics released by the Shenzhen Real Estate Agents Association show that in the 12th week of 2024 (March 18 to March 24), the transaction volume of the second-hand housing market in Shenzhen continued to rise, recording 1286 units, a month-on-month increase of 6.6%. This is the sixth consecutive week that the transaction volume of second-hand housing in Shenzhen has increased.

"Compared with last year, second-hand housing prices have been adjusted, and the transaction rate of houses with suitable prices is very fast." As children's enrollment approaches, Wang Wei, who is engaged in the education industry, is considering purchasing a school district house. She said that after the adjustment and optimization of the purchase policy, she was qualified to purchase a house, and some high-quality school district houses were more cost-effective, attracting the attention of a large number of home buyers.

Zhang Bo told the China Economic Times reporter that Shenzhen's property market rebounded after the Spring Festival, mainly due to the effect of the New Deal before the year. At present, the relaxation of purchase restrictions in Shenzhen is significantly larger than that in the north. For example, the social security period requirement for Shenzhen households to purchase houses is cancelled, and you can buy a house after settling down; the social security period for non-Shenzhen households to purchase houses has been changed from 5 years to 3 years. The introduction of the policy has driven a large number of potential home buyers to accelerate their entry into the market, and the transaction volume of second-hand houses has continued to rise, but this itself is also based on the initiative of second-hand house owners to reduce prices.

Zhao Daxuan also holds the same view. He believes that the recovery of Shenzhen's property market is mainly due to the increasing popularity of transactions in the second-hand housing market in Shenzhen. A large number of owners have taken the initiative to lower listing prices "by exchanging price for volume", and this situation of "exchanging price for volume" should gradually follow the loosening of housing prices in other cities.

Li Yujia analyzed that Shenzhen's real estate market is relatively elastic, and external funds are prone to rapid inflows and outflows, resulting in a relatively large correction. From 2022 to 2023, the transaction level of second-hand housing in Shenzhen has been hovering at an all-time low. Such a large drop is rare in other cities. At the same time, Shenzhen has a relatively large number of households and new permanent residents in the past few years, and the housing ownership rate is relatively low, less than 30%. The foundation for just needing and replacing houses is relatively solid. After a rapid pullback, create the foundation for the release of reasonable demand.

"The recovery of Shenzhen's real estate market itself has a good foundation, and subsequent market performance is expected to continue in a certain hot range." Zhang Bo said.

3

Real estate policies in first-tier cities are expected to be further adjusted

In the first quarter of 2024, the central government will continue to relax the real estate policy, and will continue to increase financial support on both sides of supply and demand. The financing coordination mechanism has been implemented, operating property loans have been relaxed, and LPR for 5 years and above has been lowered.

"On this basis, the four major first-tier cities have loosened their purchase restrictions to varying degrees, indicating that the space for local policies based on the city will be further opened up. The four major cities do not rule out subsequent further loosening measures. In addition, as housing prices in the real estate market in the four major cities continue to consolidate and consolidate, second-hand housing transactions will gradually recover, and the gradual increase in second-hand housing transaction volume will become the main feature of the next recovery of the housing market." Zhao Daxuan said.

Zhang Bo believes that the market trend of first-tier cities will be directly affected by policies, especially the market trend going north is directly related to the intensity of the next policy. At present, the purchase restriction policy in the north is still too strict. Although Shanghai has liberalized the purchase restriction for single persons and Beijing has made policy adjustments to Tongzhou and divorce housing purchases, the coverage and policy strength are still too small to drive a strong rebound in the market. "In the next step, the extent to which purchase restrictions in non-core areas will be lifted and the threshold reduction in core areas will determine the future performance of the market. But no matter what, the overall positive trend of the market remains unchanged, and the policy affects the pace of market warming."

Li Yujia said that on the one hand, it is necessary to promote a virtuous cycle of urgent demand and improvement, and continue to reduce housing transaction costs and financing costs; on the other hand, promote supply-side reforms and increase the supply of affordable housing distribution to match the payment capacity of the demand side. In terms of the housing system, it is recommended that groups in need should be solved through second-hand housing and distribution-type affordable housing, and that sexual needs should be improved through the commercial housing market, especially the newly built commercial housing market. At the same time, it is necessary to increase a package of support policies for stabilizing employment, stabilizing income and stabilizing expectations.