The election for the House of Representatives of Japan concluded on the evening of the designated month. The election results, revealed in the early hours of the following day, indicated that the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan suffered a severe defeat due to the influence of the "black gold" scandal. The ruling coalition formed by the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party won fewer than half of the seats for the first time since 1996. Shigeru Ishiba, who was elected as the new Prime Minister of Japan on the designated month day, has been in office for less than a month, and the future of the Ishiba administration is full of uncertainties.

How will the distribution of seats in the Japanese House of Representatives be after this election? Why did the ruling coalition fail to secure a majority? What impact will this result have on Japan's political landscape?

The Japanese House of Representatives election adopts a mixed system of single-member districts and proportional representation. In the single-member district elections, voters directly vote for candidates, and the candidate with the most votes is elected. In proportional representation, voters vote for political parties, and seats are allocated to each party based on the proportion of votes received. This general election saw a total of candidates competing for seats in the House of Representatives, including seats in single-member districts and seats in proportional representation districts. Whether the ruling coalition formed by the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito can secure a majority of the seats is the benchmark for success in the election set by the Ishiba administration and a focal point of concern for the Japanese public.

The election results show that the number of seats won by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has decreased from the previous number of seats, breaking the LDP's continuous record of maintaining a majority since the year ; combined with the seats won by the Komeito Party, the ruling coalition's seats have decreased from the previous number to , still short of a majority by seats. Meanwhile, the opposition forces have surged from the previous seats to seats. Among them, the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, has increased its seats from the original to ; the Democratic Party for the People has reached seats, doubling its previous number of seats; only the Ishin no Kai has decreased to seats.

Former Japanese Foreign Ministry official Hisashi Sugiyama analyzes that the premature dissolution of the House of Representatives was a misjudgment by the Ishiba administration. On one hand, the decision to dissolve the House of Representatives by ignoring public opinion and evading issues has caused voter backlash; on the other hand, some first-time cabinet members in the Ishiba cabinet, who had short tenures and no political achievements to speak of, ran for office, with newly appointed Minister of Justice Hideki Makihara and Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Yasuhiro Oguri losing their seats, severely damaging the Ishiba cabinet.

The "black gold" scandal has become the "buzzword" of this election. Last year, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) was exposed for having Diet members receive kickbacks from political fundraising party tickets from within the party factions, forming secret political funds that were not subject to regulation. Despite former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida leading the dissolution of the factions in an attempt to bid farewell to the much-criticized "factional politics," the negative impact of the "black gold" scandal persists. A recent survey on the election situation published by Asahi Shimbun shows that more than half of the voters prioritize the issue of the LDP's secret political funds.

Since then, opposition parties have struggled to unite against the LDP due to differing political views. Kougaku Kojika, an emeritus professor at Yamaguchi University, said that the election results have expanded the influence of opposition parties, including the Constitutional Democratic Party, which could bring tension to Japan's political landscape. The constitution stipulates that a special session of the Diet must be convened within days of a general election. At that time, the current Ishiba cabinet will collectively resign, and the newly elected members of the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors will nominate the next prime minister. If Ishiba secures re-election, the second Ishiba cabinet will be formed; if the prime minister changes, he could become the shortest-serving prime minister in Japan's post-war history.

To secure its ruling position, the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito will consider incorporating opposition forces to establish a united government from now on. If the opposition parties unite with independent members to control a majority of seats, a change of government is not out of the question. The Democratic Party for the People, which is gaining momentum in this election, will be the main target for both factions. Analysts believe that even if the LDP-Komeito coalition continues to govern, the future new government will inevitably face multiple challenges. First, how to address the challenges posed by Japan's economic issues, symbolized by a weak yen, respond to voters' concerns about economic and livelihood issues, and alleviate the suffering of high prices and low wages that the public is currently enduring; second, how to carry out political reforms to regain public trust; and third, how to resolve resistance on controversial foreign and security policy issues, especially in implementing defense policies.