How to view NATO's display of nuclear muscle?
On the date, the two-week NATO "Steadfast Noon" nuclear exercise quietly concluded, with over 100 military personnel from NATO countries and more than 100 fighter jets participating. The exercise included B-61 nuclear-tipped fighter jets.
Nuclear exercises are regular training activities conducted by NATO every month, but against the backdrop of the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict, this year's exercises carry a more pronounced deterrent implication aimed at Russia.
The NATO "Steadfast Noon" nuclear exercise has a history of over ten years. Each exercise is conducted in different countries, with the core objective being to test and maintain NATO's so-called nuclear deterrence capabilities. This year's exercise has three notable characteristics.
The exercise location is adjacent to the front line. Compared to last year's exercise location in the Mediterranean, this year's NATO nuclear exercise focuses on areas in northern Europe, including the UK, the North Sea, and Finland. The North Sea is only kilometers away from Russia, directly controlling the entrance to the Baltic Sea, while Finland, as the NATO country closest to Russia with the longest border, is participating in the nuclear exercise for the first time as a NATO member, clearly positioning Russia as the hypothetical enemy.
Exercise content is closely tied to the United States. In this year's exercise, the Netherlands' first batch of fighter jets, equipped with U.S. nuclear missiles, executed tactics involving the deployment and dropping of nuclear bombs, becoming the highlight of the exercise. Previously, the Netherlands had ordered fighter jets from the U.S. company Lockheed Martin and obtained "preliminary certification for nuclear deterrence missions" under the NATO nuclear sharing agreement.
Exercise time is a showdown. Just before the exercise, Russia held a standing meeting on nuclear deterrence issues, expanding the scenarios in which Russia might apply nuclear weapons. Russian President Putin specifically emphasized that aggression against Russia by non-nuclear countries with the participation or support of nuclear-armed states would be considered a joint attack by both. Less than a month later, NATO's nuclear exercise is a direct challenge to Russia's nuclear deterrence, clearly standing up for Ukraine.
Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, NATO, led by the United States, has been continuously providing military assistance to Ukraine while strengthening its nuclear force deployment in Europe through the "nuclear sharing" mechanism. Earlier this year, in response to the "threat from Russia," the United States planned to redeploy nuclear weapons in the United Kingdom, the first time since the U.S. withdrew nuclear warheads from the UK. Additionally, the U.S. has deployed hundreds of new nuclear bombs at airbases in Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, and Turkey.
As winter approaches, the Russian military's advances on the battlefield are increasingly pressuring Ukraine, and NATO countries are conducting nuclear exercises at this time, primarily to strengthen deterrence against Russia while also securing sufficient bargaining chips for potential subsequent negotiations. Although both Russia and NATO are showcasing their nuclear capabilities, both sides are well aware that any use of nuclear weapons could lead to unpredictable escalation and full-scale war. The consequences of a nuclear war are unbearable for anyone, so for now, it seems that a nuclear war is unlikely.