--Interview with Qiang Ge, Professor of the Party Building Department of the Central Party School (National School of Administration)

■ China Economic Times reporter Zhang Na

Since April, high-level interactions between China and the United States have occurred frequently and communicated closely in various fields to jointly discuss the macroeconomic situation, economic relations and global challenges between the two countries and the world. Qiang Ge, professor of the Party Building Department of the Central Party School (National School of Administration), said in an exclusive interview with a reporter from the China Economic Times that Sino-US economic relations have shown a positive trend.

01 High-level, high-frequency, and multi-field active interaction

China Economic times:There have been frequent high-level interactions between China and the United States recently. How do you view the current Sino-US economic relations and their direction?

Qiangge: 近期中美之间高层次、高频次、多领域互动，释放出积极信号，中美经济关系展现出积极态势。中方一直期望两国关系平衡、稳定、持续发展。应当说，美方高层也有改善中美关系的意愿。双方应共同努力，继续维护好这一态势，不断拓展互利合作空间，造福两国人民。不过，现在还很难说中美关系进入“平衡稳定状态”，有待观察。

Reaching a long-term agreement between the two sides will obviously not be the goal of U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen's visit to China, but more of a short-term purpose. First, it is to consolidate Sino-US economic and trade relations to cope with inflationary pressures. In particular, the Federal Reserve has said it will cut interest rates several times this year. International gold prices have soared first, and the Biden administration is facing increasing inflationary pressures. The second is to hope that this trip will make Sino-US relations more stable. Reiterating its firm rejection of the "decoupling" of the economies of China and the United States, he emphasized that communication is particularly important when differences arise between the two countries. The purpose of this visit to China is to implement the important consensus reached at the San Francisco meeting between the two heads of state, communicate frankly, avoid misunderstandings, deepen exchanges and cooperation, properly manage differences, jointly respond to urgent global challenges, and promote the stable development of U.S. -China relations.

In general, Sino-US relations have the possibility of entering a "balanced and stable state", which is in line with the common wishes of both sides. Whether we can achieve our goal in the end fundamentally depends on whether the US rulers and opposition parties can truly make up their minds to solve their own domestic problems, rather than being clever and blaming them, frequently portraying China, Mexico, Japan and other countries abroad as the "root cause" of the US problem. In the process of development, China has also continued to encounter various difficulties, obstacles, risks and challenges. China has always met challenges and overcome difficulties through reform with great courage and responsibility.

China Economic times:Will the positive trend shown in Sino-US economic relations continue in the future? How will policies change in the fields of economy, trade, science and technology, and finance?

Qiangge: 美国大选年一般不会发生重大政策变动，因此2024年美国对华政策本身并不会有太大变化（无论向好还是向坏），会有较强的延续性。例如近期美升级对华芯片出口限制，它并不是一项新政策，而是原有政策的加重实施。就全球经济平衡增长、经贸、科技、金融等领域而言，2024年美国政府很难有新的对华政策出台，但是拜登和特朗普都有可能在竞选时就此出牌。相对来说，由于特朗普从政以来就有重视蓝领工人选票的惯例，共和党更容易在中美经贸领域提出更苛刻的“加征关税”特别是对普通制造业产品“加征关税”的政策主张；与科技资本、金融资本关系更密切的民主党会更多在芯片、光刻机、人工智能等领域操弄科技政策。

02 There is room for expanding mutually beneficial cooperation in areas such as the automobile industry and addressing climate change

China Economic times:What do you think are the "cooperation points" and "risk points" in the current Sino-US economic relations?

Qiangge: 虽然我对中美关系能够顺利进入“平衡稳定状态”持谨慎态度，但并不悲观。一个很重要的原因就在于中美两国是世界经济两大“火车头”，经济总量超过世界三分之一，两国贸易自建交以来增长了200多倍，双边贸易额约占世界五分之一。这代表着中美两国经济有较高的相互依存度。所以，在制定具体政策时仍然需要从实际出发（比如对华加征关税很容易加剧美国国内的通胀问题，一味在高科技领域制裁中国反倒会伤害美国的科技企业和跨国资本），并受制于国内不同利益集团的诉求。

Similarly, there are many specific "cooperation points" in Sino-US economic relations. In the past few decades, the automobile industry has been dominated by Europe and Japan. Today, China and the United States are developing rapidly and unstoppable in the field of new energy vehicles, and are jointly changing the landscape of the world automobile industry. Moreover, Tesla, which was the first to bring a disruptive impact on the world's automobile industry, is a reflection of the United States 'innovative capabilities, and of course cannot be separated from the help of the manufacturing chain in China and China. Therefore, the automobile industry and addressing climate change are all "cooperation points" that are in the interests of China and the United States. Specific "risk points" are not easy to predict, but don't worry too much.

03 Think tanks should actively become pioneers in exchanges between the two countries,"make more introductions" and "make less suggestions"

China Economic times:Against the background of complex Sino-US economic relations, how do you think tanks can play a positive role in promoting a healthier and stable development of bilateral relations?

** Qiangge:** The role of think tanks is to contribute to the good development of Sino-US relations based on their own attributes and expertise. Specifically, we should play a positive role in three aspects.

First, the think tanks of the two countries should fully study each other's actual situation, aspirations and expectations, and actively shoulder the responsibility of introducing the real situation to the authorities. International relations do not pursue a "pro-China / American" faction in each other's country, but both countries need a "China-aware / American" faction, and it is very important to understand each other, which is the basis for cooperation without moving towards conflict. Here, I would also like to mention in particular that think tanks should "make more introductions" but "make fewer suggestions". Sino-US relations are very complex systems engineering. Think tanks should introduce the situation more fully from the perspective of their own research, so as to contribute to the construction of a more informative decision-making environment for decision-makers. Second, for a long time, think tanks pay more attention to suggestions and suggestions to the top, but do not pay much attention to mass communication. However, observing the trend of Sino-US relations in recent years, public opinion actually plays a very important role. The blind anti-China sentiment of some ordinary American voters is highly related to their extreme ignorance of China. Therefore, think tanks of the two countries should also share their research results with the public and promote mutual understanding between the people of the two countries through cooperation with the public media. Third, the think tanks of the two countries should also actively become the vanguard of exchanges between the two countries and carry out more exchange activities.