On a certain date, the U.S. Department of Commerce released a series of economic data for the third quarter in the United States. The data showed that the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) adjusted for inflation and seasonal factors increased by 2.6% year-on-year in the third quarter, lower than the expected and second quarter's 2.8%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had previously forecasted a growth rate of 2.7%.

Among these, resilient consumer spending helped sustain economic growth, with U.S. personal consumption expenditures increasing by .% in the third quarter, marking the strongest performance since the first quarter of the year. Another major factor driving U.S. economic growth mentioned by the U.S. Department of Commerce is federal government spending, which contributed . percentage points to the U.S. third-quarter growth rate.

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose by .% in the quarter, below the Fed's % target and significantly lower than the .% increase in the second quarter. However, the core, excluding food and energy, still grew by .%. Fed officials generally consider the core to be a better indicator of long-term inflation trends.

As the above series of data were released, the Federal Reserve is set to hold its monetary policy meeting. Currently, the market widely anticipates that the Fed will cut interest rates by another 25 basis points when it concludes its two-day policy meeting on the specified date. Analysts from Jefferies Group stated that the further decline in inflation during the third quarter indicates that the U.S. economy is heading towards a "soft landing," implying that the Fed should not choose to significantly lower interest rates again in the near future.

Analysts from Allianz Group believe that based on the latest data, the momentum of the US economy remains quite strong, and it seems a foregone conclusion that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by a certain number of basis points this month. The analyst further pointed out that if the non-farm payroll data, to be released this Friday, shows strong results, the Federal Reserve may pause interest rate hikes at its monetary policy meeting in November.

The CME Group's "FedWatch Tool" shows that the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in September is 0%, while the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 100%. By October, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 89.7%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut by 25 basis points is 9.7%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut by 50 basis points is 0.6%.