Yen Weakens! Will the Bank of Japan Raise Interest Rates Early?
On the date, after concluding a two-day monetary policy meeting, the Bank of Japan announced that it would maintain its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%. The Bank of Japan ended its negative interest rate policy in January of this year and decided in March to further raise interest rates, increasing them to 0.5%.
Although the Bank of Japan has "stayed put" this time, according to the post-meeting statement on the day of the Bank of Japan's monthly meeting, it still maintains the logic of further interest rate hikes, implying that it will continue to raise interest rates and adjust the degree of monetary easing. The Bank of Japan stated that it needs to pay attention to the development of the global economy and financial markets, and also needs to study how these factors will affect the outlook for Japan's economic activities and prices, as well as related risks.
Among them, the Bank of Japan also reiterated that if the economic and price trends align with expectations, the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates. During the afternoon policy meeting, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda also stated that if economic and inflation forecasts are realized, the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates. However, regarding the timing of the next rate hike, the Bank of Japan did not provide any signals.
Following the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision, the yen slightly depreciated against the US dollar. As of now, the yen has depreciated by more than % against the US dollar this month, on track to record the largest monthly decline in the yen-dollar exchange rate since January 2015. A weakening yen often triggers market speculation that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates earlier to curb inflation.
The Bank of Japan also mentioned inflation upside risks in its post-meeting statement. The BOJ set the inflation forecast for the fiscal year at .%, while indicating that the inflation risks for the fiscal year are tilted to the upside. According to a Reuters survey, nearly % of analysts currently expect the BOJ to raise interest rates before the end of July , while a slight majority of analysts expect this to not occur by the end of this year.
However, analysts from Saxo Bank said that the recent depreciation of the yen may catch the attention of the Bank of Japan and prompt an earlier rate hike. Analysts from the Meiji Yasuda Research Institute also said after the interest rate decision was announced that they believe there is still a possibility that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates within the month.