There is only one day left until the US Presidential Election Day on November 3rd. In just the past week, states across the United States have spent nearly a billion dollars on political advertising. Especially in this year's 12 key swing states, campaign flyers and placards are ubiquitous, and local residents often receive text messages encouraging them to vote. They may also be stopped on the street and urged to vote. "The final outcome of the US election often hinges on a handful of truly competitive swing states." Reuters reported that both the Democratic and Republican parties invest the most money and resources in these areas. So, why are these states so important? How do they "swing" between the two parties? What issues do the people in these areas care most about, and what connections do these issues have with the economic, social, and cultural backgrounds of the states?

Getting the most popular votes does not necessarily mean a winner

In the American electoral system, the candidate with the most popular votes is not necessarily the winner. According to the BBC, the "Electoral College" system in the United States means that Republican presidential candidate Trump and Democratic presidential candidate Harris are not engaged in a "national competition," but rather a "state-by-state contest": in most states, the candidate with more votes will "win all," taking all the electoral votes of that state. To enter the White House, one must secure more than half of the total 538 electoral votes, which is 270. The number of electoral votes corresponding to each state varies based on its population size.

The Conversation website in Australia believes that under the U.S. electoral system, the outcome can be altered by a small portion of voters in a few states: In the year, Biden won over 7 million more votes nationwide than Republican presidential candidate Trump, but what truly secured his victory in the Electoral College was only the 80,000 votes he won over Trump in the swing states.

Affected by historical development and demographic structure, most states in the United States have fixed party affiliations, while the states where support is uncertain are known as swing states, also called "battleground states" or "purple states." The number and composition of swing states in each past election have not been entirely consistent. This year, the main swing states in the United States are the following, collectively holding a total of electoral votes: the "Blue Wall" states in the north—Pennsylvania ( votes), Michigan ( votes), Wisconsin ( votes), and the "Sun Belt" states in the south—Georgia ( votes), Arizona ( votes), North Carolina ( votes), Nevada ( votes).

It is noteworthy that the date is not only the presidential election day, but also the day when the U.S. Congress faces a change in its composition. Of the 100 seats in the Senate, 35 will be up for re-election, and all 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be re-elected. The party that wins 218 seats becomes the majority party and can control the House of Representatives. Currently, the Senate is controlled by the Democratic Party, and the House of Representatives is controlled by the Republican Party, but the margin of seats between the two parties is very small. The Associated Press reports that the struggle for control of Congress remains in a stalemate.

Pennsylvania: "The Most Important Swing State"

Pennsylvania is often considered the most crucial swing state. According to The Washington Post, this is because it has a high number of electoral votes, and the winner might only need to win two more swing states to secure the final victory.

Pennsylvania, once a "blue wall" state, has gradually shifted to a "purple state" in recent years. In 2016, Trump narrowly won Pennsylvania, becoming the first Republican presidential candidate to carry the state since 1988. In 2020, Biden narrowly won Pennsylvania by 0.5 percentage points.

On many issues and in its demographic makeup, Pennsylvania is a microcosm of the entire United States. According to a U.S. political news website, Pennsylvania's economy is transitioning from manufacturing to emerging industries; the population is predominantly white, but the immigrant community is growing; the urban areas of the two major cities in the east and west, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, are more supportive of the Democratic Party, while the vast suburban and rural areas lean towards the Republican Party.

Energy issues are one of the focal points in the state. Pennsylvania is located in the "Rust Belt" where coal mining and iron industries have declined, and it has extensive shale layers with natural gas production ranking second in the United States. Many voters work in the energy industry. Regarding whether hydraulic fracturing should be used to extract shale gas and shale oil locally, Trump firmly supports it. Kamala Harris, the Democratic vice presidential candidate, opposed it a few years ago on the grounds that the method damages the environment, but has shown some flexibility in this election cycle.

Georgia: "Didn't turn blue, but turned 'black' instead."

Georgia has leaned Republican in every major election since the beginning, but in 2020, Biden narrowly won by a margin of .%. The Washington Post analysis suggests that the Democratic victory was largely due to the rapid development of several core counties in the state's capital, Atlanta. However, Trump still enjoyed high support in small cities and rural areas of the state.

Georgia didn't turn blue, it turned 'black'. This is what Greg Griffin, the head of the Georgia chapter of the NAACP, said. Data shows that about half of Georgia's voters are African American. On one hand, many African American women support Harris, who is African American, Asian, and a woman. But on the other hand, African American men are more likely to be unhappy with the high inflation and liberal policies that happened during the Democratic Party's rule.

North Carolina: Hurricane could be an unexpected influencing factor.

North Carolina was once considered a "red state," with the Republican Party winning the state in 12 out of 15 presidential elections from 1952 to 2004. However, in the past 15 elections, the margin of victory for both parties in the state has been less than 5%, with a difference of only 0.3% in 2008.

According to Bloomberg, the number of "independent voters" in the state has significantly increased in recent years due to urban expansion, the rise in minority populations, and the influx of young people. Particularly among young and highly educated voters, support for the Democratic Party is strong.

This year, Hurricane Helene caused significant damage in North Carolina, leading to a political battle between the two major U.S. parties over disaster relief efforts, which has left many residents of the state dissatisfied. The Guardian reported: "The hurricane could become an unexpected factor influencing voting."

Michigan: Highest Percentage of Arab-American Population in the U.S.

In several swing states, certain minority groups have become the key to determining the outcome. It is reported that Michigan has the highest proportion of Arab-Americans in the nation, and the Democratic administration's performance following the recent outbreak of the Israel-Palestine conflict may impact the party's electoral prospects.

From an economic policy perspective, similar to Pennsylvania, Michigan is also located in the "Rust Belt" of the Midwest United States. The decline of its pillar industry, the automotive manufacturing sector, coupled with the persistent impact of high inflation on the livelihoods of its residents in recent years, has led the state's voters to express significant dissatisfaction with the federal government.

However, until Trump narrowly won with 0.2% of the vote in 2016, Michigan had been a "blue state" for the previous 28 years. "The suspense of this year's election is whether the 2016 result was an anomaly or a long-term reshaping of the state's political landscape."

The Washington Post reports: "Michigan is a politically complex region, not distinctly divided into rural areas supporting the Republican Party and urban areas supporting the Democratic Party. Medium-sized cities in the state also account for a significant proportion of the vote, which could lead to greater fluctuations."

Arizona: Bordering Mexico to the south, immigration issues are of concern.

The Guardian reported that the "Trumpization" of the Republican Party, rapid population growth, the emergence of a large number of young Latino voters, and changes in suburban voters' views towards the Republican Party have turned this once staunch "red state," which was predominantly white and conservative, into a swing state. In the year, Biden narrowly won the state with a margin of .%.

Arizona is located in the southwestern United States and shares a southern border with Mexico. As a border state, immigration issues and border security are of great concern. The Hispanic population in Arizona reaches millions, accounting for nearly % of the total regional population, making how to attract their support a matter of concern for both major parties. The majority of Hispanics in the state are descendants of immigrants from Central and South America, including those who entered illegally, and many support the Democratic government that takes a tolerant stance on immigration. However, since 2010, the gap in support between the two parties has been narrowing. Martinez, the Arizona head of the Republican Party responsible for Hispanic outreach, stated, "More and more Hispanic Americans born in the U.S. are beginning to feel that it is unfair for undocumented immigrants who do not pay taxes to enjoy services such as healthcare and education."

Wisconsin: The margin between the two parties' votes is less than %.

Wisconsin is the third swing state in the American "Rust Belt" after Pennsylvania and Michigan. In 2016, the state voted for the Republican Party; in 2020, it leaned towards the Democratic Party. Only in this state did the margin of victory for both parties in the two elections both fall below one percentage point. The state's voters are primarily white and rural, so rural counties are the main battleground here, and economic and social issues are crucial for these voters.

On the evening of the day, Harris and Trump shared the stage in Milwaukee, the largest city in Wisconsin, with the two venues being only about kilometers apart. In 2016, Trump turned the small Democratic advantage in rural areas of the state into a significant advantage of nearly 100,000 Republican votes, thereby winning the state. In 2020, Biden reversed the situation, particularly by gaining an edge in Milwaukee and medium-sized cities, to reclaim the state.

Nevada: Highest Unemployment Rate, Significant Housing Cost Issues

According to The Washington Post, the majority of Nevada's votes are concentrated in Clark County, where Las Vegas, the largest city in Nevada, serves as the county seat. Nearly half of the state's residents live in this county. As reported by National Public Radio, unlike the "Rust Belt" states in the Midwest, Nevada has a significantly higher proportion of non-white populations, with about 40% of voters being Hispanic, African American, or Asian. The Democratic Party has won the state in the past few presidential elections.

However, due to Trump's rising support among Hispanic and working-class voters, the gap between the Democratic and Republican parties in the state is gradually narrowing: in both 2020 and 2021, the gap remained within 0.5 percentage points. The report states that many Hispanic voters in Nevada are not particularly enthusiastic about either party's candidates. However, due to issues such as inflation and healthcare costs, their support for the Democratic Party has declined compared to 2020.

Nevada's economy relies heavily on tourism, has the highest unemployment rate in the nation, and faces significant housing cost issues. Trump once proposed deporting immigrants to free up more housing, while Harris claimed she would build 10,000 new homes. However, whether these plans can attract voters remains to be seen.

"A Window into the Complexity of American Society"

Li Haidong, an expert on American issues at the China Foreign Affairs University, told reporters that swing states have always been a window into the complexity of American society and socio-economic changes. He believes that the voter population in swing states often has intricate economic, social, and cultural backgrounds, leading to drastically different voting patterns in different election cycles. In recent years, factors such as increased immigration, industrial shifts, and urban development have continuously altered the composition of swing states and their voters, making it harder to lock in long-term support for a single party. Whenever new policies are introduced, they reassess their support for political parties, becoming a crucial political "barometer" in both presidential and midterm elections.

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Source: Global Times

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